Last week’s price hike by the mills did little to change the outlook of most steel buyers. The majority (52 percent) of those responding to Steel Market Update’s canvass of the market this past week still believe prices will remain the same, despite the latest $40 increase announced by the mills on Feb. 27. Another […]
Thomas Gibson, president and CEO of the American Iron and Steel Institute, will retire this fall. A search for his successor begins immediately. Gibson has led AISI since September 2008. Under his leadership, the institute successfully advocated for legislation to strengthen the trade laws against unfair trade practices and level the playing field for steel […]
Now a rising concern in the U.S., the coronavirus is not only a tragic pandemic but a major economic disruption. The public is now invited to join the CRU Webinar: “How COVID-19 is affecting CRU’s outlook for 2020,” hosted by CRU economic and commodity experts and recorded on March 5. Click below to view additional […]
The coronavirus has begun to affect business in the United States, according to the latest Federal Reserve “Beige Book.” The economy is moving forward at a modest to moderate pace, but growth is uneven. The virus appears to be negatively impacting travel and tourism in the U.S., which showed only moderate to flat growth in […]
In just a few weeks from the first known case, the COVID-19 outbreak has wreaked havoc on the global manufacturing sector. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI posted a steep decline in February, falling to 47.2 from 50.4 in January, its lowest level since May 2009. New orders and production fell at record rates in […]
U.S. manufacturing activity grew only slightly in February, according to the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. The Institute for Supply Management reported that the February PMI decreased 0.8 points to 50.1, just above the no-change mark of 50. The PMI for new orders fell into contraction at 49.8, while production dropped four points to […]
Active U.S. and Canadian rig counts declined slightly this past week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The active drill rigs count is important to the steel industry because it is a leading indicator of oil country tubular goods demand. The number of active U.S. rigs fell by 1 to 790, with oil rigs […]
Looking back at the numbers for February, flat rolled steel prices declined from January, with the benchmark price of hot rolled dipping to a monthly average of $576 per ton. Steel Market Update’s Current and Future Steel Buyers Sentiment Indexes showed some erosion, likely as a response to the weak steel prices and concerns over […]
The Chicago Business Barometer nearly emerged from contraction in February. The manufacturing index, produced by MNI Indicators, gained 6.1 points to post 49.0, the highest level since August 2019. The three-month average for the index edged up to 46.7. Production reached an eight-month high, gaining 8.3 points to register 51.0 after seven straight months below […]
Steel Market Update raised its Flat Rolled Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral yesterday from Lower in anticipation of a price hike believed imminent from the mills. As expected, Nucor and U.S. Steel both announced increases today of $40 per net ton on all new spot orders of hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized steel, effective […]
World crude steel production totaled 154.4 million metric tons in January, a 2.1 percent increase compared to January 2019, reported the World Steel Association in Brussels. China’s crude steel production for January totaled 84.3 million tons, an increase of 7.2 percent compared to January 2019. Steel output in February will be hurt by the COVID-19 […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive members. For more information on upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. The Conference Board report of consumer confidence through mid-February does not reveal undue concern about the coronavirus, but that will change rapidly if the news continues to worsen. The composite value […]
Steel Market Update is revising our Price Momentum Indicator on flat rolled to Neutral from Lower. Sometimes you need a bit of a prod in order to see things clearly. We’ve had many conversations and reviews of the spot pricing data and came to the conclusion the timing of our move to Lower was incorrect. […]
Durable goods orders edged down 0.2 percent in January as defense orders sharply decreased from their surge in December. Defense capital goods plummeted 39.8 percent after an 87.4 percent increase the previous month, the Census Bureau reported today. Orders for transportation slid 2.2 percent in January after gaining 8.8 percent in December. Excluding the volatile […]
Key Market Indicators show that the improvement in market trends in December and January translated to a jump in the present situation in February. This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data on which we have reported in detail during the month. In it we summarize 36 data streams that describe […]
Metalforming companies continue to be optimistic about the economy, according to the February 2020 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. When asked to predict economic activity for the next three months, 30 percent of members surveyed said they expect an improvement, down from 32 percent in January. Only 10 percent expect a decline. The […]
Domestic mills won back market share from imports in 2017, 2018 and 2019. Even though the steel market contracted by 1.9 percent in 2019, shipments by U.S. mills to domestic locations increased by 2.9 percent as imports declined. Table 1 shows 13 years of history of total steel supply to the U.S. market in short […]
If the coronavirus leads to a global pandemic, it will severely disrupt steel production. Figure 1 shows annualized monthly global steel production on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis and capacity utilization since January 2000. Based on OECD data (see below), the 3MMA for capacity utilization in January was 83.0 percent, down from 88.2 percent […]
Based on the results from the flat rolled and plate steel market trends analysis Steel Market Update conducted this past week, along with new steel price discussions SMU had with steel buyers late last week, we have decided to move our flat rolled (hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume) price Momentum Indicators to Lower […]
Steel buyers sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, has remained relatively steady at a fairly optimistic level since the beginning of the year. But both Current and Future Sentiment have registered a very slight decline in the past few weeks. SMU’s Current Sentiment Index registered +56 this week, down from +63 at this time […]
Sky Island Capital, a Dallas-based private equity firm, has made a majority investment in Polished Metals Limited alongside the founding Lazarus family. Headquartered in Hillside, N.J., Polished Metals is one of the country’s largest polishers and suppliers of architectural and ornamental metals, offering a variety of finishes and metals to several end markets, including the […]
Mill lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel have shortened slightly this month, though not yet enough to signal a definite trend. The current numbers suggest the mills are still maintaining relatively healthy order levels, but a change may be in the works. Lead times for steel delivery are an indicator of demand […]
Price negotiations with the mills have continued to loosen up as it’s rapidly becoming a buyer’s market. The vast majority of service center and manufacturing executives responding to Steel Market Update’s questionnaire this week said the mills are open to price negotiations on nearly all products to win the orders. In the hot rolled segment, […]
Writen by: John Packard, President & CEO, Steel Market Update On Tuesday I received a question about the SMU Price Momentum Indicator, which is currently pointing toward Neutral pricing over the next 30 days. Yesterday (Wednesday) I received the following note from one of our readers after reading Tuesday evening’s issue of Steel Market Update: […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Oil and gas prices declined from our previous update. The spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) FOB Cushing, Okla., was $49.59 on Feb. 10, down from $58.17/ barrel in […]
A surge in business activity in New York State surprised economists in February. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey’s general business index shot up eight points for a reading of 12.9, well above the forecast consensus of 4.0 and posting its highest level since May 2019. Business conditions improved across the board except for a softening […]
Flat Rolled = 52.6 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 48.4 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled Service centers scaled back their flat rolled steel inventories at the end of January to 52.6 shipping days of supply on an adjusted basis, down from 62.9 in December, according to the SMU Service Center Inventories Report. This […]
Based on our analysis of 10 economic indicators, the decline in manufacturing slowed in February’s data. This report summarizes 10 data streams that describe the state of U.S. manufacturing in general and the steel industry in particular. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market Update publications, and therefore will be […]
In this report we examine the change in currency values of the 16 pre-eminent global steel and iron ore trading nations. The U.S. dollar has strengthened against 10 of the 16 currencies in the last three months. In January we replaced the British pound in this report with the Vietnamese dong in recognition that Vietnam […]
In three months through December, demand for total rolled products declined by 6.1 percent. This Premium analysis by Steel Market Update is based on steel mill shipment data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and import-export data from the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC). It is meant as a more in-depth look compared […]