The global manufacturing sector remains in contraction but is beginning to stabilize, says the latest report from J.P. Morgan and IHS Markit. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose for a second month in a row reaching 49.7, although still below the 50 neutral point. “The global manufacturing PMI sent a message of stability in […]
Consumer confidence as reported by The Conference Board declined more than expected in September. Month on month, the composite value of the index declined from 134.2 to 125.1. Calculated as a three-month moving average (3MMA) to smooth the monthly volatility, the measure of consumer confidence actually increased slightly from 131.4 to 131.7. This is why […]
Both the September and October reports on consumer confidence from The Conference Board suggest a weakening of people’s expectations. Consumer confidence as reported by The Conference Board declined more than expected in September and experienced another small decline in October. This is quite a volatile indicator and therefore we smooth the data with a […]
The third estimate of U.S. GDP growth in Q2 2019 at 2.01 percent was little changed from the first estimate. U.S. GDP is reported quarterly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). There are three estimates. The first is released about 25 days after the end of the quarter and the second and third are […]
The global market share of U.S. scrap exports continues to increase, according to this quarterly analysis of data from the Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau (ISSB) in the UK. We believe that to improve our understanding of the gyrations of the domestic scrap market, we should be aware of where the U.S. stands as a […]
From June through August, global steel production increased by 3.1 percent, but excluding China, growth declined by 2.1 percent with the result that China’s share reached another all-time high of 55.9 percent. We have a new perspective this month on global capacity. About a year ago, the World Steel Association stopped reporting global capacity utilization […]
The Chicago Business Barometer dropped 3.3 points to 47.1 in September after seeing a brief rebound from contraction in August. The decline in the index released by ISM and MNI Indicators was lower than the 50+ reading expected by many economists. The September Chicago PMI, as the index is also known, marked the third contraction […]
Steel Market Update’s Buyers Sentiment Index saw a big change this week—and not for the better—with Current Sentiment dropping by 23 points to a reading of +29 and Future Sentiment dropping by 20 points to a reading of +31. Even though the +29 and +31 readings are within the optimistic range of our index, both […]
Steel buyers report flat or declining demand and expect spot steel prices to test the lows reached earlier this year, according to the findings of Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this past week. The consensus view of the economy is more uncertain. Demand Nearly half of steel buyers responding to SMU’s questionnaire reported declining […]
Orders for durable goods rose 0.2 percent to $250.7 billion in August, but most of the increase was military related. Orders for defense-related goods jumped 15 percent. Orders minus defense decreased 0.6 percent, reported the U.S. Census Bureau. Core capital goods, non-defense orders minus aircraft and an indicator of future investment, fell 0.2 percent. Economists […]
It has clearly become a buyer’s market as the vast majority of service centers and OEMs polled by Steel Market Update now report the mills actively negotiating spot prices as necessary to win orders of all types of steel products. In the hot rolled segment, 92 percent of respondents to SMU’s market trends questionnaire earlier […]
Mill lead times for most flat rolled steel products continue to see a slight shortening, according to the latest Steel Market Update data. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. The shorter the lead time, the less busy the mills, and the more likely they are to discount […]
Metalforming firms are expecting a slowdown in the manufacturing sector, according to the September 2019 Precision Metalforming Association Business Conditions Report. Thirty percent of participants in the monthly survey expect a decline in economic activity in the next three months, up from 27 percent in August. Those who expect no change in activity jumped to […]
Thyssenkrupp AG is sacking its CEO of 14 months after directors determined Guido Kerkhoff is unable to reverse declining profits at the German conglomerate. Supervisory Board Chairman Martina Merz will be interim CEO for the next 12 months while a permanent replacement is sought. Kerkhoff succeeded Heinrich Hiesinger in July 2018. In May 2019, the […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison The Fed cut interest rates at the conclusion of its meeting on Sept. 18, 2019, lowering the Federal Funds rate by 25bp to a range of 1.75 to 2.00 percent. This reduction in the Fed Funds rate was widely anticipated by markets and follows a 25bp rate cut in […]
“Fragile and uncertain” is how the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) describes the current global economy. The OECD’s latest Interim Economic Outlook shows economic growth slowing as escalating trade conflicts impact confidence and investment and increase downside risks in financial markets. In May of 2018, the OECD was predicting global growth of 4 […]
The U.S. active rotary rig count, an indicator of oil country tubular goods demand, declined this week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The number of active U.S. rigs fell by 18 to 868, with oil rigs down 14, gas rigs down 5, and miscellaneous rigs up 1. Compared to this time last year, […]
Editor’s note: This article was originally shared on Tuesday, Sept. 17. The September Service Center Inventories Report will be sent to data providers on Monday, Oct. 14, and shared with Premium subscribers shortly after. Flat Rolled = 55.8 Shipping Days of Supply Plate Steels = 52.1 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled Service center flat […]
The growth of manufacturing in the U.S. is slowing, and on a single-month basis the ISM index became negative in August. This does not bode well for the balance of 2019 or for 2020, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of 11 manufacturing indicators. This report summarizes 11 data streams that describe the state of […]
The weekend drone strikes against Saudi oil production sent WTI futures as much as 15.5 percent higher overnight Sept. 15 to $63.34 per barrel, the biggest intraday percentage gain since June 22, 1998, according to various reports. The market is watching intently to gauge the duration and the impact of the outage on world energy […]
The composite producer price index of all commodities has been relatively stable in 2019, but tinware products are becoming very uncompetitive against aluminum. This report is an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data performed by staff of Steel Market Update and is intended to provide subscribers with a view of the competitive position of […]
The U.S. dollar has weakened against 11 of the 16 steel trading nation currencies in the last month and against eight in the last three months. In this report we examine the change in currency values of the 16 preeminent global steel and iron ore trading nations. The currencies of these 16 don’t necessarily follow […]
Service centers and manufacturing companies are telling Steel Market Update of softening demand, shortening lead times (may not be in the published numbers, but orders are coming out early), and negotiable pricing. Many buyers are sitting on their hands and only buying what they need. On top of this, SMU Service Center inventories appear to […]
Steel Market Update’s analysis of flat rolled and plate inventories and shipments, reported earlier this week to data providers and Premium subscribers, shows flat rolled inventories of 55.8 days of supply, and plate inventories of 52.1 days, as of the end of August. Service center flat rolled inventories remained elevated, while plate saw a reduction […]
Steel Market Update’s analysis of flat rolled and plate inventories and shipments shows flat rolled inventories of 55.8 days of supply, and plate inventories of 52.1 days, as of the end of August. Service center flat rolled inventories remained elevated, while plate saw a reduction in supply last month to the lowest level seen all […]
Editor’s note: This story is still developing. Since this reporting, Saudi Arabian officials claim they have already restored 50 percent of their lost production and that they expect oil output to fully recover within weeks. On Tuesday, oil prices corrected back down by about 6 percent on the news that Saudi production would recover more […]
Oil prices spiked by nearly 20 percent Monday on the news that a drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities had knocked out more than 5 percent of the global oil supply. Prices corrected back down by about 6 percent today following reports that Saudi production would recover more quickly than originally anticipated. The Wall […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index surprised economists by slipping to 2.0 on the general business index, a three point decline from August. The new orders index fell three points to 3.5, but remained above zero indicating only slight growth. The shipments index declined four points to 5.8 for it lowest level in nearly three years. […]
Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index saw a slight uptick this week, but not one big enough to indicate a significant change of direction. Industry sentiment has trended downward for much of the year and has been stuck in a mediocre range for the last few months over concerns about demand and pricing. Buyers’ […]
The pendulum appears to have swung back in buyers’ favor as service centers and OEMs report most mills willing to negotiate to secure spot orders of all types of steel products. In the hot rolled segment, 82 percent of respondents to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this week said the mills were open to […]