It has been an eerily quiet week. A number of mills have been in meetings and the MSCI is holding their forecasting summit in the Chicago area on Monday and Tuesday of this week. We did capture a few interesting numbers (such as HR at $610) but not in enough volume to warrant making any […]
Based on a number of conversations Steel Market Update (SMU) has had with service centers over the past couple of working days, there appears to be concern that the domestic steel mills are actively looking to take end user contract business away from the distributors. While it is still early in the negotiation process SMU […]
Apparent steel supply is defined as domestic mill shipments to domestic locations plus imports. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce. The three month moving average (3MMA) of the total tonnage of flat rolled steel sheet and strip supply was 4,305,106 tons per month in the period May through […]
Year to date through July, net imports of steel sheet products have been steadily declining as those of long products have been steadily increasing, (Figures 1 and 2). Net imports are defined as imports minus exports and at times can be negative for individual products when exports exceed imports. In the case of flat rolled […]
American Institute for International Steel Press Release Falls Church, VA, September 9, 2013 – Steel exports increased in July by 2.2 percent over June according to government reporting. “NAFTA steel demand improved in July compared to June by 6 percent, offsetting declines in other smaller international markets. NAFTA market’s increase reflects the timing of the […]
Earlier this year a number of mills announced that they would no longer accept CRU minus based steel contracts. Since at the time most flat rolled steel contracts were negotiated to go through the end of the calendar year we did not see how the mills were going to approach the subject until just recently. […]
Apparent steel supply for July was up slightly compared to the same month one year ago by 1.53 percent. This is due to a 4.60 percent increase in domestic shipments, which was offset by a decrease in both total steel imports and finished steel imports, down 9.24 percent and 9.92 percent respectively. The net trade […]
July ferrous scrap exports totaled 1,203,282 metric tons (1,326,390 net tons) with Turkey, Taiwan, China, Mexico, and Canada being the top five importing countries of U.S. scrap. Of the higher ranking countries in the table below, there was month-over-month increase in exports going to Turkey, China, Mexico, Canada, and Indonesia over the June figures, but […]
Based on the most recent compiled license data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, total steel imports are poised to rise by 6.8 percent in August compared to the prior month. August imports are forecast to be 2,691,265 net tons which are above both the 3 month and 12 month moving averages. August imports are […]
TSI Iron Ore: Prices Stay Firm, Future Is Uncertain… After breaking through the psychological ceiling of $140/ ton a couple of weeks ago, the iron ore spot market has retreated ever so slightly to $137. While this is not necessarily an indication of a reversal in the pricing trend, it may shed light on […]
The summer lull continued the past couple of weeks over the holiday weekend. Activity in the futures market has been limited with few trades going through. It seems that a confluence of factors has caused many traders to sit on the sidelines, the summer holiday season, directionless physical market and uncertainty in demand going into […]
Final Scrap Pricing Settlement Numbers Still in Negotiation Scrap prices continued their weakening trend – especially on shredded with cut grades such as #1 HMS and prime grades such as #1 busheling are moving sideways to down $10 depending on the geographical location and the status of the mills in each area. We heard from […]
The American Iron & Steel Institute (AISI) reported estimated raw steel production at 1,871,000 net tons for the week ending July 27, 2013. With outages and maintenance issues, production declined through August to a high of 1,888,000 net tons of raw steel in the week ending August 3, and dropping down to 1,856,000 net tons […]
The number of open contracts (open interest) traded through the CME Group (NYMEX) during the month of August 2013 was 2,572 contracts (51,440 tons). This is lower than the 2,874 contracts (57,480 tons) traded in July and is 15.8 percent lower than the 3,055 contracts traded one year ago (61,100 tons). The news looks a […]
Picking up where we left off at the end of July – during the month of August we saw relatively modest movement in flat rolled pricing out of the various indices we track on a regular basis. SMU is the only index showing some erosion in the benchmark hot rolled and cold rolled indices. The […]
As we entered the month of August we found flat rolled steel prices trending higher. Prices began rising 10 weeks earlier (late May) after U.S. Steel announced the first of three rounds of price increases. On May 21st the Steel Market Update (SMU) hot rolled coil average price was $565 per ton ($28.25/cwt) and by […]
For the week ending August 31, 2013, the American Iron & Steel Institute (AISI) reported that the U.S. steel industry produced 1,856,000 net tons of raw steel, a 0.3 percent decrease over the previous week and a 2.2 decrease over the same week one year ago. The estimated capacity utilization rate is 77.5 percent, down […]
SMU was speaking with one of the steel mills this morning who was lamenting about the drop in spot galvanized base prices from the $37.50/cwt level to down around $36.00/cwt base prices. Two conversion mills were mentioned as being the culprits leading the charge. Not everyone (yet) is participating but this mill executive thought it […]
We are starting to spot slight gyrations in the other indexes that we monitor on a regular basis. Most of the items reported this past week were unchanged from the week prior. It is important to remember there are differences in both the collection techniques of the various indexes as well as different FOB […]
Financial Markets: Since last week’s writing the SP 500 has since rallied to test the old support above at 1670 to then fail and drop to 1627 before rebounding in the last two days to 1642. As I mentioned, we are likely in a retracement move down to the 1550 target before we can find […]
The American Iron & Steel Institute (AISI) reported their final raw steel production numbers for the month of July 2013. This estimation is different than the weekly raw steel production as it is based on 75 percent of the domestic mills reporting vs. 50 percent for the weekly estimates. Total raw steel production for the […]
The Far East and Southeast Asian ferrous scrap markets have been on the uptrend since the end of July. Since mid-July, scrap prices have risen approximately $20-$25/metric ton. This coincides with Tokyo Steel in Japan increasing scrap prices twice by approximately $24/MT. The increase in scrap prices were reactionary as steel stockists ramped purchases from […]
For the week ending August 24, 2013, the American Iron & Steel Institute (AISI) reported that the U.S. steel industry produced 1,861,000 net tons of raw steel, a 0.9 percent decrease over the previous week and a 1.9 decrease over the same week one year ago. The estimated capacity utilization rate is 77.7 percent, down […]
July imports rose slightly compared to June but were below the three month and twelve month moving averages. The SMU forecast for August imports is down slightly from July based on license data from this past week. We anticipate August imports to be 2.3-2.4 million tons. Below is the press release from the American Institute […]
Steel Market Update sources are forecasting slightly lower shredded scrap prices in the Midwest and Ohio Valley as we prepare to move into September. Prime grades (such as #1 busheling) are forecast to be sideways to down slightly and cut grades are forecast to move sideways across most areas of the country. This is what […]
We are picking up a very mixed bag over the past two days regarding spot flat rolled pricing. As we go through the process we ask ourselves is the spot pricing market glass half full (meaning prices will go higher from here) or half empty (meaning prices will move lower). We don’t have a clear […]
In three months through May exports of flat products declined as those of long products remained unchanged (see graphic below). Compared to May last year total exports were up by 311 tons. This result breaks down to flat products down 21,166 tons, longs down 29,114 tons and tubulars up 43,176 tons. In all three cases […]
The American Iron & Steel Institute (AISI) reported estimated raw steel production at 1,822,000 net tons for the week ending June 29, 2013. Despite outages and maintenance issues, production rose through July to 1,904,000 net tons of raw steel in the week ending July 20, followed by a drop to 1,871,000 net tons in the […]
Imports of semi finished, and hot worked steel imports through July 2013 Imports of the combined tonnage of billets, blooms and slabs have been trending down for 12 months as have also the combined imports plate and sheet. Total long products have been trending up for all of 2013. These conclusions are based on a […]
Caterpillar Inc. reported weakened sales for February in its rolling three month period that compares current sales with those of the same period one year ago. Machine retail sales were down 13 percent in February further slipping from 4 percent in January. February sales last year were up by 21 percent over the same period […]