By Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg Iron ore price volatility continued in the past week as Vale’s lower guidance and Rio Tinto’s damaged port caused supply fears across the market. On Tuesday, April 2, CRU has assessed the 62% Fe fines price at $88.70 /t, a $3.30 /t rise week-on-week. The supply side news has been […]
On Tuesday of this week, Steel Market Update published a hot rolled price range of $650-$720 per ton, with an average of $685 per ton. The lower end of our range dropped $40 per ton ($2.00/cwt) while the upper end of our range remained the same. Our Price Momentum Indicator on hot rolled remained unchanged […]
Gaurav Chhibbar is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Gaurav’s previous role, he was a trader at Cargill spending time in Metal and […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores In the U.S., plate prices rose $16 /s.ton after falling by $34 /s.ton last week. Prices here started to fall back from their high levels in February, though mills announced a $40 s/.ton price increase, which at best may only stabilize prices at this lower level unless seasonal demand […]
Ferrous scrap settled up $20 per ton in March, but demand is softening and supplies are building, leading to predictions of April scrap prices that move sideways or decrease by $5 to $10 per ton. Outages at five mills in late March and early April will dampen scrap demand, said CRU North America Analyst Ryan […]
Finished steel price momentum has been particularly difficult to gauge of late and what happens to ferrous scrap prices next month may be telling. Scrap for May appears to be under pressure. Despite relatively healthy U.S. steel demand and domestic mills cranking out flat rolled steel at nearly full capacity, scrap prices have seen declines […]
Ferrous scrap prices are poised to drop substantially in May, anywhere from $20 to $50 per gross ton, predict Steel Market Update sources, adding to the downward price momentum on finished steel. Scrap prices moved down or sideways in three of the first four months of the year. CRU North America steel analyst Ryan McKinley […]
Ferrous scrap prices for June are difficult to predict, report Steel Market Update sources, who disagree on the degree to which the lower tariffs on Turkish steel will affect demand for scrap exports from the U.S. Most expect scrap prices to settle sideways next month after declines for most of the year, but a small […]
Ferrous scrap prices for June have settled down another $30/GT, surprising a market that was expecting little or no decline this month and adding further pressure to already weak finished steel prices. Scrap prices have been on a downward trajectory since January. The drop in scrap prices this month was caused by low mill demand […]
Since hitting an eight-year low in December of just 1,893,568 tons, imports of steel into the United States have been up and down, according to Commerce Department data. Final January imports jumped to 3,478,865 net tons, up 83.7 percent over December—a nearly 1.6 million ton increase. Then in February, based on license data for the […]
Hot rolled is the weakest product and our HRC average priced dropped due to lower prices collected out of two minimills. We understand one mill is offering even lower numbers for large tonnage, but we did not include that in our numbers for this evening as we want to speak directly with the mill to […]
Hot rolled prices were up $5 per ton this past week to $690 per ton. The averages continue to be negatively impacted by a couple of aggressive mills. We saw a little erosion on cold rolled and the lower end of the galvanized range. Galvalume was unchanged. Plate steel prices saw the gains measured last […]
Production at U.S. steel mills continued at levels not seen in years, inching up slightly in the week ending March 23 to an average capability utilization rate of 83.1 percent. Domestic raw steel production for the week totaled 1,934,000 net tons, up 0.2 percent from the prior week and up 5.9 percent from the same […]
The U.S. steel industry produced approximately 24 million tons of steel in the first quarter of 2019, a 6.7 percent increase from the same period last year. Mill utilization averaged 81.8 percent, up more than 5 percentage points from the 76.6 percent in 2018. U.S. raw steel production for the week ending March 30 dipped […]
Steel Market Update asked: With steel imports dropping and domestic mills running close to capacity, are you concerned about where steel prices may go over the next few months? Surprisingly, nearly two out of three respondents to SMU’s market trends questionnaire earlier this week said they are unconcerned about a big swing in prices. Their […]
Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts that billions in capital investments by domestic steelmakers over the next few years, adding more than 20 million tons of new capacity to the market, will cause a glut of supply that proves disastrous for steel prices—a phenomenon they have dubbed “Steelmageddon.” Steel Market Update canvassed the market this […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market was written by David Feldstein. As the Flack Global Metals Chief Market Risk Officer, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled futures market, and we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Besides writing futures articles for Steel […]
Each month, Steel Market Update produces an import analysis by region for two of the six flat rolled product groups (HRC, CRC, HDG, OMC, CTL plate and coiled plate). This month we are focusing on plate products. The intent of these regional updates is to bridge the gap between our monthly license data summaries and […]
Each month, Steel Market Update produces an import analysis by region for two of the six flat rolled product groups (HRC, CRC, HDG, OMC, cut to length (CTL) plate and coiled plate). This month we are focusing on plate products. The intent of these regional updates is to bridge the gap between our monthly license […]
Flat rolled and plate steel prices saw relatively little movement over the past week. Steel Market Update leaves its hot rolled and galvanized prices unchanged, with small declines reported in cold rolled, Galvalume and plate. Here is how we see prices this week: Hot Rolled Coil: SMU price range is $690-$720 per ton ($34.50/cwt-$36.00/cwt) with […]
Production at U.S. steel mills eased slightly in the week ending March 16, maintaining an average capability utilization rate of 82.9 percent, down from the 10-year high of 83.4 percent reported in the prior week. Domestic raw steel production for the week totaled 1,930,000 net tons, down 0.6 percent from the prior week but up […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg Further suspensions in Brazil lifted the iron ore market at the start of the week. Meanwhile, demand has yet to pick up in China after the National People’s Congress (NPC). On Tuesday, March 19, CRU assessed the 62% Fe fines price at $87.80 /t, up $4.40 /t w/w. This […]
Are steel prices witnessing a dead cat bounce or the beginning of a bullish reversal? The market appears split on the feline vs. bovine analogy. In other words, there is a huge divergence of thought on what is going to happen to steel prices over the next three or four months. The benchmark price of […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel prices (delivered to U.S. ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other costs […]
Steel market conditions and steel prices could be good for the next 18-24 months, but after that comes an unavoidable downturn that metals and mining analyst Timna Tanners has dubbed “Steelmageddon.” In fact, her company, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, has trademarked the term. Speaking at the S&P Global Platts North America Steel Conference March […]
By CRU Group’s Zinc Analysis Team Zinc’s price on the LME tracked copper and nickel sharply lower on March 8 as data showed a steep fall in overall Chinese exports in February. Even though January and February data from China can be misleading due to the New Year holiday, the contraction in export volumes rattled […]
Steel Market Update is sharing the following Premium-level content on flat rolled imports with Executive-level members. For more information about upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, contact info@steelmarketupdate.com. Finally, the detailed steel trade data has been released for December. Again, we apologize for our lack of trade reports in the last few months. August was the […]
This is a report that we provided monthly through August 2018 data. The USITC then revamped their DataWeb and the new version didn’t work. Our SMU staff worked with the USITC to fix the problem, then the government shut down. The March 2019 data is the first available that has been released on time since […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores As forecast, HR coil prices in the U.S. are rising – but when might they peak? Steelmakers in the U.S. have now announced their second $40 /s.ton price increase for sheet products. At CRU, we have been expecting the recent downward price cycle to turn and have been advising […]
Total foreign steel imports are on the decline as license data from the U.S. Department of Commerce has February imports at 2.5 million net tons. Based on license data through March 12, it appears March imports will also be in that same vicinity. To put this into perspective, imports for February 2018 were 2,478,000 net […]