Manufacturing activity in New York State was strong in May, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported the general business conditions index rose four points to 20.1 for a faster pace of growth than April. Forty percent of survey respondents said business conditions had improved during […]
For steel producers, there’s a strong correlation between capacity utilization and profits. Steel Market Update tracks capacity utilization for both flat and long products and both have been on the upswing since early 2018, at least in part due to the effects of the Trump administration’s plans to impose tariffs on steel imports. From January […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel HR futures markets continue to adjust to the continually changing narrative on global trade. While flat rolled steel demand has remained […]
Employment increases in manufacturing and construction are signposts for steel sales activity. 2018 is starting off well. Rising employment and wages are the basis of GDP growth because personal consumption accounts for almost 70 percent of GDP. Steel consumption is related to GDP; therefore, we need to be aware of changes to the employment picture. […]
Steel mill shipments are increasing, and the shipment-to-inventory ratio is decreasing, which is positive for the industry. According to American Iron and Steel Institute data, total steel mill shipments increased by 13.1 percent from January 2016 through January 2018 and by 2.4 percent in January 2018 year over year. Is this believable? This is the […]
The manufacturing sector can expect positive growth through the end of 2018, predicts the Institute for Supply Management in its Spring 2018 Semiannual Economic Forecast. Manufacturing revenue is expected to increase 6.6 percent overall for 2018, an increase from the December 2017 estimate of 5.1 percent for this year. Manufacturers were much more optimistic about […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market was written by David Feldstein. As the Flack Global Metals Director of Risk Management, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled futures market, and we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Besides writing futures articles for Steel […]
Brazil says it will agree to quotas on finished and semi-finished steel exports to the U.S. in return for exemption from the 25 percent Section 232 tariffs, according to Inside U.S. Trade. Brazil is the latest country to capitulate to U.S. demands, agreeing to a quota of 70 percent of its three-year average exports of […]
The American Iron and Steel Institute has elected Roger Newport, chief executive officer of AK Steel Corp., to serve as chairman of AISI through May 2020. “Roger Newport is one of the global steel industry’s most respected and influential leaders, and is a tireless advocate for the North American steel industry. Whether it be meeting […]
Global manufacturing started second quarter with a small hop rather than a jump. The JPMorgan Global PMI posted 53.5 in April, up slightly from March’s six-month low of 53.3. “April PMI data signaled a marginal pick-up in the rate of expansion of the global manufacturing sector, the first growth acceleration seen since the turn of […]
Economic growth is expected to continue in 2018 followed by a mild recession in 2019, says ITR Economics. Concern over looming U.S. tariffs on aluminum and steel, as well as retaliatory Chinese tariffs, aligns with the HARDI/ITR quarterly forecast of macroeconomic deceleration in the U.S. economy late in 2018. Steel Market Update is a member […]
Nations all over the globe, including the United States, blame China for its wanton overproduction of steel and predatory trade practices such as dumping and intellectual property theft. But veteran steel analyst Chuck Bradford of Bradford Research in New York sees the Chinese becoming less of a threat to free trade over time. Recently back […]
Steel Market Update downshifted its price momentum indicator from higher to neutral in late April as steel buyers reported stability in most products and prices appeared to have plateaued, at least in the short term. At month’s end, hot rolled was selling for about $873, cold rolled for just over $1,000, galvanized for around $1,100, […]
Supply executives report that new orders, production and employment are growing, according to the latest survey by the Institute for Supply Management. The April PMI in the ISM Report on Business registered 57.3, a two-point decline from March. Most of the components of the PMI registered a decrease in percentage points from March, but were […]
The Chicago Business Barometer broke its three-month downward trend, inching up 0.2 points to 57.6. Production output picked up during the month, although new orders continued to decline. Both were below year-ago levels. Supplier delivery times lengthened, and steel was mentioned by respondents as difficult to source. The index was up almost 20 percent and […]
Metalforming manufacturers are expecting steady business conditions during the next three months, according to the April 2018 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. PMA members, however, are seeing negative impacts from the Section 232 aluminum and steel tariffs. Orders are expected to remain steady in the next few months. Manufacturers said daily shipping levels […]
Indicators of manufacturing activity point to a strong first half for the U.S. economy and the steel industry. This report summarizes seven data sources that describe the state of manufacturing in the United States. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market Update publications, and therefore will be brief in […]
GDP growth slowed in the first quarter, but on a trailing 12-month basis has improved for the last seven quarters, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of government data. The first estimate of GDP in the first quarter was 2.32 percent, down from 2.87 percent in Q4 2017. Economy.com reported: “U.S. GDP growth moderated […]
Consumer confidence dipped slightly in March and recovered partially in April, but the three-month moving average (3MMA) has advanced for nine of the last 10 months, according to data from The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in April was 128.7, up from 127.0 in March. The 3MMA increased from […]
Global steel demand will reach 1,616.1 million tons in 2018, an increase of 1.8 percent over 2017, estimates the World Steel Association in its spring Short Range Outlook. In 2019, WSA forecasts global demand will grow by 0.7 percent to 1,626.7 million tons. “In the next couple of years, the global economic situation is expected […]
This should come as no surprise to our readers, the theoretical spread between foreign steel export prices and the SMU hot rolled coil index average is quite large. However, when looking at foreign steel offers on hot rolled (and there are precious few) which range from $820-$840 per ton, according to SMU sources, the spread […]
ITR Economics continues to expect economic growth in 2018 followed by a mild recession in 2019. Concern over looming tariffs aligns with the HARDI/ITR quarterly forecast of macroeconomic deceleration in the U.S. economy late in 2018. Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI, the Heating, […]
Just days before the U.S. is due to announce if it will extend the steel tariff exemptions it granted to its closest trading partners, officials in Canada announced plans to strengthen border enforcement to prevent transshipments and diversion of unfairly priced steel into North America. It’s difficult not to see a link between Canada’s announcement […]
Steel producer Ternium reported shipments of 3.5 million tons in first-quarter 2018, a 3.0 percent increase from the fourth quarter and a 42 percent jump from Q1 2017. Higher steel prices pushed revenue up $45 per ton. Higher shipments were a result of a 160,000-ton increase in Mexico that was offset by a 48,000-ton decrease […]
Orders for durable goods, manufactured items expected to last three years or more, jumped 2.6 percent in March primarily driven by new contracts for Boeing airplanes. Orders for commercial aircraft and parts leapt 44.5 percent for the month, said the Commerce Department on Thursday. Excluding the volatile transportation category, new orders were flat for the […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel Shifting sentiment in HR futures this week. Indexes bounced back up after falling the previous week. Tariffs kick in beginning in […]
Steel quotas may be in the cards for Brazil as it attempts to negotiate its way into a permanent exemption from the 25 percent steel tariffs scheduled to go into effect on May 1. U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross reportedly told Brazil’s Minister of Affairs that the quickest way to win exemptions would be to […]
Billings at architecture firms slowed in March but remained in expansion territory at an Architecture Billings Index score of 51.0, down one point from February. Inquiries and value of new design contracts remained generally strong overall, reported the American Institute of Architects, although firms reported concern about planned U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum. The […]
The International Monetary Fund has made an upward revision to its forecast for global GDP growth in 2018 and 2019. The IMF updates its World Economic Outlook (WEO) in April and October each year. The IMF blog last Tuesday stated: “The world economy continues to show broad-based momentum. Against that positive backdrop, the prospect of […]
There’s a distinctive noise of metal on metal floating through the halls of Oak Forest High School, and it’s music to the ears of Daniel Brown, the school’s industrial technology teacher. Brown has been supervising the Welding Works Explorer post in the Chicago suburb since fall 2016. He has been teaching welding for 17 years […]