Both the expectations and the view of the present situation improved in the mind of consumers in January according to the latest Conference Board analysis. We thought it would be interesting to take a longer term view this month because our past analyses have been somewhat overshadowed by the surging confidence of the late 1990s. […]
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed continued growth in a report released this week. The November 2013, 10-City and 20-City composites increased by 13.8 percent and 13.7 percent year-over-year, respectively. The month-to-month indices decline 1.0 percent in November, the first decrease since November 2012. Nine out of 20 cities in the survey recorded positive returns, […]
Durable goods orders declined in December as did the three month moving average. Not a cause for concern at this point because even the 3MA of this indicator tends to be quite erratic (Figure 1). The year over year growth rate of the 3MMA declined from 7.9 percent in November to 5.1 percent in December. […]
The Eurozone is expected to have mild yet fragile growth throughout 2014 according to the EUROFER Q1-2014 Economic and Steel Market Outlook compiled by the EUROFER Economic Committee (EC). Indicators are pointing towards increased growth for industrial production, an important component for carbon flat rolled steel production in Europe. GDP has been edging up since […]
The market has taken a decidedly bearish tone this week as many feel the first cracks in the physical market are starting to appear. While prices have come off around $5 down the forward curve, the weight is strongly on the offer side, with few buyers present. The threat of imports and decreasing raw material […]
Global steel production in December was 129.2 million tonnes, an increase of 0.8 percent from November and of 6.3 percent from December 2102 according to the World Steel Association. The decline in the 2nd half of 2013 was much less than occurred in the previous three years. Capacity utilization in December was 74.7 percent. The […]
The busheling scrap market is starting to take shape, though it is still early in the month. Initial sentiment suggests that the market for prime scrap may be down around $20 / gt. With weakness in the export market as Turkish corruption problems, the weakening Lira and soft economy have prevented imports, additional material should […]
The Architecture Billings Index declined in December to 48.5 from 49.8 in November, marking the first consecutive monthly decline since May and June of 2012. Chief Economist Kermit Baker was unsure why the demand for architectural services is slowing and attributes some of the decline to anxiety caused by the government shutdown. Baker said “it […]
Existing home sales rose 1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.87 million in December but are 0.6 percent below 2012 levels, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales for all of 2013 were 5.09 million, an increase of 9.1 percent and the strongest year since 2006 when sales reached 6.48 million. […]
The Chinese economy grew by 7.7 percent year-over-year (y/y) in the fourth quarter and by 7.7 percent in 2013 as a whole (Figure 1). The GDP growth rate has been in the range 7.4 percent to 7.9 percent for the last seven quarters. The Chinese economy is performing in line with the government’s goals at […]
Construction on the $5.2 billion Panama Canal expansion continued at a reduced rate on Monday despite threats by contractor consortium Grupo Unidos por El Canal, S.A. (GUPC) that work would be suspended due to lack of payment by the Panama Canal Authority (PCA). The Spanish controlled consortium was hired to build the third set of […]
Financial Markets: The equities markets have stabilized after their reaction to the poor jobs number in December last week. The S+P closed at 1836 today, exactly 3 points higher than where I reported it last week. We are likely headed higher as it will take a lot more than a poor jobs report to scare […]
Altos Hornos de México (AHMSA) is pulling nearer to its goal of producing 5 million tons of steel per year. Production in 2013 reached 4.16 million tons, up 7 percent from 2012. Shipments of steel products totaled 3.55 million tons. AHMSA’s new Steckel mill produced 80,000 tons of steel plate in the final months of […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics puts out its series of producer price indexes (PPI), for thousands of goods and materials. The latest release on Wednesday reported December results. These statistics are a useful way to evaluate any changes in the competitive position of steel against competing materials. See below for the official description […]
Metalforming companies are expecting business conditions to accelerate in the next three months, according to the January 2014 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. In January, 46 percent of participants said they expected economic activity to improve, up from 41 percent in December, while 47 percent said they expect conditions will be unchanged. A leap […]
The Dodge Momentum Index is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning and is published by McGraw Hill Construction. The report leads construction spending by a full year and can be used an indicator for future construction. Any reading above 100, established for year 2000, indicates growth in construction […]
The Federal Reserve publishes a trade weighted index of the value of the US$ against a basket of the currencies of our major trading partners weekly and monthly. The H.10 weekly release contains daily rates of exchange of major foreign currencies against the U.S. dollar. The data are noon buying rates in New York for […]
Net job creation in December was a disappointing 74,000, far below expectations. However November was revised up by 38,000 and the three month moving average of monthly job gains was hardly dented (Figure 1). This monthly result is at odds with most other economic indicators and was probably adversely affected by short term influences such […]
Last week the Bipartisan Congressional Trade Priorities Act of 2014 was presented in the House of Representatives to renew and strengthen the existing Trade Priorities Act. The American Institute for International Steel supports the bipartisan legislation, saying it is “among the most significant trade bills introduced in Congress.” To read the full press release from the […]
Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk, LLC has the duties of outlining the hot rolled futures and busheling scrap futures markets for our readers (as well as taking a look at the financial markets, iron ore and commodities in general): On the March S+P future we closed at 1833, this is up from the 1806 level […]
Canadian building permits declined in November to 18,173, falling 3.6 percent from October. The value of permits issued dropped 6.7 percent to $6.8 billion after gaining 8 percent the previous month. Permit values have been an upward trend with eight monthly increases in 2013. In the residential sector, the total value of permits declined 7.6 […]
Steel buyers are expecting general economic activity to remain unchanged to slightly better in the next six months. In the December ISM Steel Buyers Survey 63.6 percent expect conditions to remain the same while 36.4 percent of those surveyed expect improvement. This compares to 66.7 percent and 26.7 percent, respectively, last month. Sales and production […]
ASD Press Release: CHICAGO — The Association of Steel Distributors (ASD) announces that James (Jim) Barnett, president of Grand Steel Products in Wixom, Mich., is the recipient of the industry’s highest honor, the Steel Man of the Year Award. This annual ASD award honors one individual who embodies leadership, dedication, service and excellence in the […]
Market sentiment in Asia is contrary to the United States. Finished steel sales have been very lackluster and slow. Main causes: • Exchange rates: US$ has been stronger recently, approximately 1.3-1.5% against most Asian currencies. This affect on exchange rates also is affecting Turkish buyers. On a currency exchange difference from 3 weeks ago, it […]
The year 2013 for hot rolled steel futures was a story of two halves, with the beginning of the year trading in a strong contango and the second half of the year stuck in backwardation. The beginning of the year was characterized by low prices and significant volatility while the second half of the year […]
December US auto sales failed to meet expectations but annual sales still registered as the best year since 2007. December sales were up just 0.3 percent but automakers were pleased with the 7.6 percent overall gains for 2013. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.6 million units was well below the 16.0 million predicted by […]
The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.3 in December from 53.1 in November, expanding for the twelfth consecutive month. Manufacturing production increased at its fastest pace since Feb. 2011, with growth rate of new orders holding steady at November’s rate. Exports rose for the sixth consecutive month. The US, Japan, Germany, the UK […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index showed disappointing manufacturing conditions for December. The survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported the general index at 1.0, up three points from November but indicating almost no change in activity for the month. The future outlook index was slightly less optimistic than November with all indices […]
Manufacturing activity expanded in December for the seventh consecutive month and rose to its second highest reading of 2013. The PMI (purchasing managers index) registered 57 percent according to the December 2013 ISM Manufacturing Report on Business. New orders, employment, supplier deliveries and prices all grew at a faster rate in December. New Orders increased […]
Chinese iron ore imports rose to 77,840,000 metric tons (MT) in November, a 14.8 percent increase over October tonnage. Compared to the same month one year ago, November imports were up 18.3 percent. Year-to-date (YTD) iron ore imports stood at 746,100,000 MT for the first 11 months of 2013. Steel scrap imports to China were […]