I have been in New York City where one of the competitors of Steel Market Update was conducting a steel conference. There were a number of satellite mini-conferences surrounding the NYC event. I attended three of them: the CRU Steel Briefing, which attracted about 100-150 executives; the Bank of America Merrill Lynch dinner drawing a […]
Heating and cooling equipment shipments totaled 1.75 million units in April, down 0.1 percent compared to one year ago, according to data recently released by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). This is the first month that total monthly equipment shipments have declined on a year-over-year basis since September 2018. Residential and commercial storage […]
Happy Father’s Day to all of the fathers reading tonight’s issue. I will be in New York City participating in the CRU Steel Briefing, which will be held at the Sheraton Hotel in Manhattan on Monday afternoon. Later that evening I will be attending the Bank of America Merrill Lynch steel dinner hosted by Timna […]
Our website has been updated with the correct complete agenda and speakers, and we have added more detailed information about the SMU NexGen Leadership Award. We have also updated the sponsors and exhibitors logos for the 2019 SMU Steel Summit Conference on our website. We have updated the names of the companies attending (those showing […]
A higher percentage of manufacturing companies and flat rolled steel service centers are reporting distributors as continuing to lower spot pricing to their customers. We have now passed through the mythical “capitulation” level and we will explain what that means in a moment. First, we saw 79 percent of the manufacturing companies responding to our […]
Private construction contracted in three months through April, but state and locally funded work, including infrastructure, is booming, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of Commerce Department data The Construction Put in Place (CPIP) expenditures data for April was released on June 3. Through April, total construction has had negative momentum every month this year […]
Orders for metal cutting machines and metalforming and fabricating machines saw their lowest April rate since 2016. The Association for Manufacturing Technology reports manufacturing technology orders totaled $344.6 million in April, a decline of 16.5 percent from March and 17.6 percent year-over-year. For the first four months of this year, orders were down 11.6 percent […]
Imported steel prices are no longer competitive with domestic steel mill pricing – even on light gauge galvanized and other specialty products that normally have gone to trading companies. Lead times are short, but as one steel executive put it to me this afternoon, “It’s not that the mills have no business. [For this time […]
Steel Market Update data supports the widespread view that steel demand is unusually sluggish for this time of year. Nine out of 10 steel buyers responding to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this past week characterized demand as flat or declining. Only a small single-digit percentage see improving demand. About 35 percent of the […]
The Dodge Momentum Index, a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential buildings in planning, slipped 1.4 percent in May to a reading of 141.0 from a revised reading of 142.4 in April. The commercial component of the index dropped 6.9 percent while the institutional component rose 8.1 percent. On a year-over-year basis, the […]
Job growth in two industries vital to the steel industry, manufacturing and construction, showed signs of slowing in May. The U.S. added a total of just 75,000 jobs in May, well below the 180,000 to 185,000 jobs forecast by economists. In addition, the Labor Department revised employment levels downward for March and April. The March […]
Lordstown will not be getting another General Motors vehicle, says CEO Mary Barra. And no, it is not a “PR stunt” by the company. The Ohio manufacturing facility was one of five North American plants included in a global restructuring of the company. During an interview with Reuters in Washington last week, Barra defended plans […]
This coming week will be a full week when I will be in my office. I am ecstatic. As with most weeks, this coming one will be spent trying to figure out what will cause this market to turn around. On Tuesday, I will publish our analysis of service center spot pricing to their end […]
Industry sentiment has continued to erode this month as the attitudes of steel executives appear to be suffering from the relentless uncertainty over steel pricing, demand and Trump administration trade policies. The goal of the index is to measure how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful today (Current […]
It’s nearly unanimous that steel prices are in play. More than nine out of 10 flat rolled steel buyers responding to SMU’s market trends questionnaire this week reported that the mills are willing to negotiate price in order to secure the order. The vast majority even reported the mills willing to talk price on plate. […]
Lead times for spot orders of all types of steel products continued to shorten in the past two weeks with demand falling below the pace of steel production. The average lead time for hot rolled is now below three and a half weeks, cold rolled is nearing five weeks, galvanized is less than six weeks […]
Today, June 6, is D-Day. I know there are many who read this newsletter who are well-removed from those who served in World War II. For us baby boomers, the children of the men and women who served either in the military or supporting the war effort at home, we learned early in life about […]
May turned out to be a good month for several automakers. Fiat Chrysler, Toyota and Nissan all reported year-over-year gains. Fiat Chrysler posted a 2 percent gain in May, its first monthly increase since January, while Toyota jumped 3.2 percent and Nissan 0.1 percent. Automotive News estimates that General Motors sales increased 1.2 percent in […]
Key Market Indicator trends deteriorated in May and were the worst since October 2016, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis. This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data we have reported in detail during the month. In it we summarize 36 data streams that critically describe the state of the steel […]
I am in Washington, D.C., attending the joint SMA/AISI annual meeting. I had the unique opportunity to sit down with Phil Bell, President of the Steel Manufacturers Association, and the SMA board to discuss my viewpoints regarding various issues affecting the electric arc furnace manufacturers. The SMA got to see a few of the proprietary […]
Construction employment expanded in 250 of 358 metro areas in the 12 months through April, according to the latest analysis of employment data by the Associated General Contractors of America. Employment declined in 53 areas and was unchanged in 55. Workforce shortage continues to be a problem for the construction industry, said AGC. “Demand for […]
I am back, well sort of… (I took some vacation days this past week. Did you miss me?) I will be traveling to Washington, D.C., where I will be speaking with the board of directors of the Steel Manufacturers Association. This will be interesting as there are no prepared remarks, just SMA President Phil Bell […]
Editor’s note: John Packard is on vacation. A year into President Trump’s policy of imposing extra import duties to offset a U.S. trade imbalance, public opinion on the impact of tariffs remains divided, with few seeing an economic benefit, according to the latest Monmouth University Poll conducted last week. A majority of those responding expect […]
The rate of growth in U.S. home prices continues to slow. The March S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index gained 3.7 percent year-over-year in March, down from 3.9 percent in February and the lowest annual gain since September 2012. The index has been on a 12-month downward trajectory, falling from a 6.5 percent annual […]
Editor’s note: John Packard is on vacation. It appears many steel buyers are holding off on purchases while they wait to see if imports resume from Canada, Mexico and Turkey now that President Trump has reversed himself on the Section 232 tariffs. “Lead times are stagnating/shortening and the mills are in full negotiation mode,” said […]
Industry sentiment has seen a gradual slide since registering +78 in January 2018 and the trend is continuing, if not accelerating. Declining steel prices and disappointing demand in some sectors appears to be weighing on the attitudes of many industry executives. Generally speaking, SMU’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index reflects an industry that is still fairly […]
Now that the U.S. borders are open to tariff-free steel from Canada and Mexico, and lower-tariff steel from Turkey, can the market expect a flood of imports in the coming weeks and months? And what will that mean for steel prices? Last week, the Trump administration removed the 25 percent tariff on steel imports from […]
Average lead times for spot orders of hot rolled, galvanized and plate steels continue to shorten as mill production, at more than 80 percent capacity, appears to be outpacing demand. Hot rolled lead times are now approaching three and a half weeks, cold rolled less than six weeks, and galvanized and Galvalume slightly above six […]
Steel Market Update data on negotiations and pricing corroborate the same trend. More than eight out of 10 flat rolled steel buyers responding to SMU’s market trends questionnaire this week reported that the mills are willing to talk price to win their business. Thus, it’s no surprise that steel prices continue to move lower. About […]
Sales of new homes in April slid 6.9 percent from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 673,000, according to the latest data released by the Department of Commerce. Sales were 7.0 percent higher than the April 2018 estimate of 629,000. The decline in sales followed a robust 723,000 sales pace in March and […]