Existing home sales fell 2.2. percent from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.38 million in September, says the National Association of Realtors. The decline followed two consecutive months of gain. Sales in the Midwest fell the hardest but all four regions saw declines. Higher home prices due to insufficient inventory was partially to […]
There was much discussion at the NASA conference and in the wake of the conference regarding scrap pricing and where prices are headed for the month of November. The discussion on scrap has been a moving target over the past week or two. We checked with some of our sources earlier this month and we […]
Except for a brief uptick this summer, steel prices have been on the decline since March and breached the $500 per ton level in mid-October—a psychological line in the sand that leaves steel buyers wondering: Have prices hit bottom? Is it time to replenish inventories? Flat rolled steel prices took a steep dive last month, […]
Construction jobs increased in 39 states and the District of Columbia between September 2018 and September 2019, while construction employment increased in 28 states from August to September, according to an analysis by the Associated General Contractors of America of the latest Labor Department data. “Although evidence is mounting that the overall economy is slowing, […]
Another hectic week for me as I travel to Chicago on Monday and Tuesday. I will be in the office on Wednesday, Thursday and part of the day on Friday before flying to London where I will be visiting CRU offices on Oct. 28, participating in the CRU Breakfast at the British Museum on the […]
Except for a brief uptick this summer, steel prices have been on the decline since March and breached the $500 per ton level this month—a psychological line in the sand that leaves steel buyers wondering how much further prices can slide. Steel Market Update estimates the average price for hot rolled is now down to […]
The United Auto Workers and General Motors reportedly reached a tentative four-year labor agreement on Tuesday, but it remains unclear how quickly operations will resume and how long before the automotive supply chain gets back to normal. The union has been on strike since Sept. 16, resulting in 30 facility closures and layoffs at GM plants […]
Housing starts fell 9.4 percent in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,256,000, well below the August revised rate of 1,386,000 due mostly to a large decline in the multifamily sector. Single-family housing rose 0.3 percent from August, while units in buildings of five units or more plummeted 28.3 percent. All four regions […]
I have been in Pittsburgh these past two days attending the Metalcon show. I will return to my office on Friday afternoon. I spoke with a service center who is a large supplier to General Motors Tier One and Tier Two. GM built inventory going into the strike and continued to take shipments for one […]
Steel Market Update has to admit 2019 has been an unusual year as we have seen two “dead cat bounces” already and we may be about to live through a third in the coming weeks. Why do we believe flat rolled prices are about to reverse course? Because of the data we have been gathering […]
Steel Market Update’s analysis of flat rolled and plate inventories and shipments for the month of September: Flat Rolled = 49.9 Shipping Days of Supply Plate Steels = 52.1 Shipping Days of Supply (48.2 adjusted) Flat Rolled Service center inventories of flat-rolled steel dropped significantly in September, which the decrease in on-order volumes in August […]
I thought John Ferriola’s comments at the World Steel Association would be of interest to our readers. Joe Innace of Platts interviewed Nucor’s Ferriola and reported him saying, “The rest of this year will be pretty flat. Going into next year, it’s really a crapshoot.” He told Platts Nucor’s downstream businesses have seen prices drop, […]
Steel Market Update’s Buyers Sentiment Index declined again this week to its lowest levels since 2013. Both Current and Future Sentiment have been trending steadily downward since April. The Current Sentiment reading of +26 is half the +52 recorded just one month ago and more than 40 points below levels at this time last year. […]
Steel Market Update’s canvass of the market this past week reveals that many buyers are leaning pessimistic about their prospects for the fourth quarter. The majority responding to SMU’s questionnaire expect demand to continue weakening, prices to continue declining and growth to remain flat into the fourth quarter and possibly beyond. Demand SMU asked: At […]
Negotiations continued between the United Auto Workers and General Motors on Saturday afternoon. On Friday, the UAW presented a counter to the proposal GM submitted on Monday. Recent comments by the union hint that a possible tentative agreement may be in the works. “A short time ago, today, Friday, Oct. 11, 2019, we counterproposed to […]
August heating and cooling equipment shipments came in at 1.85 million units for the month, up 4.7 percent over the same month one year ago, according to data recently released by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). This is the second consecutive month that total monthly equipment shipments have increased on a year-over-year basis […]
One of the reasons why I enjoy the steel industry is the fact that every day is different. Each customer is unique, every buyer had his/her own personality and way of conducting business. As a salesman, my challenge was understanding and then navigating the motivating factors behind every purchasing decision. The U.S. government has been […]
More than nine out of 10 steel buyers responding to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this week agree that mills are willing to negotiate spot prices on all types of steel products to secure orders in the current, difficult market environment. In the hot rolled segment, 96 percent of respondents said the mills were […]
Mill lead times for all flat rolled sheet products continued to see slight shortening over the past month. The average lead time for hot rolled is now down to nearly three and a half weeks, cold rolled is less than five and a half weeks and coated steels are less than six and a half […]
Commerce Department Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data for August, released Oct. 1, shows total construction has had negative momentum every month since October last year. In the months June, July and August, total construction declined for the first time since November 2011, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of the Commerce data. At SMU, […]
The Dodge Momentum Index gained 4.1 percent for a reading of 143.6 in September due to an increase in plans for commercial construction projects. The commercial component jumped 8.9 percent while the institutional component fell 4.8 percent. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Data & Analytics, is a monthly measure of the first report for […]
John Packard is traveling… Here’s what readers of Steel Market Update have learned this week. Steel prices continue to slide. By Steel Market Update’s calculation, the benchmark price for hot rolled steel now averages $515 per ton. That’s the lowest in 2019. Given the widespread reports of disappointing demand, worsened by the strike at GM […]
The United Auto Workers’ strike against General Motors is in its 23rd day. After the union rejected a counterproposal from GM on Sunday, UAW-GM Vice President Terry DIttes commented, “These negotiations have taken a turn for the worse.” “We, in this union, could not be more disappointed with General Motors,” he said, adding that the […]
Construction employment continues to lag behind demand as a worker shortage continues. Construction employment grew in 252 out of 358 metro areas between August 2018 and August 2019, declined in 60 and was unchanged in 46, according to a new analysis of federal employment data released by the Associated General Contractors of America. A recent […]
SMU continues to pick up negative vibes through the analysis we currently are actively conducting on the flat rolled and plate steel markets. There is obviously something going on that is concerning buyers and sellers of steel. At the same time, one of the steel mills told me today that even though prices on their […]
I will be out of the office this entire week traveling first to Cincinnati as we conduct our sold-out Steel 101 workshop on Tuesday and Wednesday. Later in the week I will be traveling to Minnesota (where I see temperatures are supposed to be in the 30’s for highs) for a Board of Trustees meeting […]
United Auto Workers are in their third week of a strike against General Motors. The back and forth of negotiations continue with the union reportedly rejecting a counterproposal offered by GM on Monday. In a letter to union representatives on Tuesday, Terry Dittes, UAW GM vice president and director, outlined the problems with the proposal: […]
U.S. auto sales slipped in September as leading Asian automakers Toyota and Honda reported double-digit declines. Toyota sales fell 16.5 percent and Honda, after a record August, saw sales drop 14.1 percent. Nissan reported a 17.6 percent plunge in sales. Subaru ended an amazing 93-month run of sales increases with a 9.4 percent drop in […]
Our last issue sparked our readers to comment on a couple of topics. We addressed the Bayou Steel comments in another article in tonight’s issue. I will address the comments I received from U.S. Steel regarding their purchase of a portion of Big River Steel and the exposure to electrical steels (something I have never […]
The net situation changed little from August but the Treasury 10/2 yield spread became slightly positive on Sept. 27 and the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index suffered a serious setback on Sept. 15. This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data on which we have reported in detail during the month. […]