Steel Market Update is pleased to introduce a new contributing writer on the HRC Futures and other futures markets. Spencer Johnson is a Risk Management Consultant with FCStone LLC. With six years of experience, Spencer provides his customers strategic and tactical advice on protecting themselves against commodity price volatility in the steel markets. Spencer will […]
There has been some confusion over the customs bill that was passed by the House last week. The bill, HR 644 – Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act of 2015, was not part of the TAA/TPA package (HR 1314). Passage of the House bill will send it to committee where it will be reconciled with […]
Manufacturing conditions in the Philadelphia area improved in June, according to the June Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all improved from their readings in May. The headline diffusion index for current activity increased to 15.2 in June from […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 105.102 for May, down by 0.18 from April and down from the all-time high of 106.309 in November last year. The three month moving average, (3MMA) in May was 105.40, down by 0.23 from April. January […]
Metalforming companies are expecting little change in business conditions in the next three months according to the June 2015 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. Just 23 percent of members surveyed (down from 24 percent in May) think economic activity will improve in the next three months; 60 percent expect no change. New orders […]
A joint statement by eight steel trade associations calls for immediate action in addressing steel overcapacity and the increase in subsidized exports from China. The statement below has been issued by the following organizations: AISI, SMA, CSPA, SSINA, CPTI, Canacero, Alacero, Eurofer and the Turkish Steel Producers Assn and Brazilian Steel Institute. “There is a […]
The Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) “fast track” was passed by the House in a 219-211 vote on Friday. The Trade Adjustment Act (TAA), however, suffered a crushing defeat in a 126 to 302 vote. TAA would extend a program providing assistance to workers who lose their jobs as a consequence of trade deals and add […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey headline index surprised economists by falling five points to -1.98 points in June. The consensus was for an increase of 6 points in the general business index, according to Bloomberg, and is the second negative reading in three months. The new orders index for New York manufacturers fell six points […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) puts out its series of producer price indexes, for thousands of goods and materials. For an explanation of this program see the end of this piece. The latest release last Friday reported results through May. We run this analysis every three or four months to give readers […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analysis of non-farm employment reported that 280,000 jobs were added in May and the March and April result was revised up by a total of 32,000. Economists had expected U.S. employers to add 220,000 jobs last month. The three month moving average, (3MMA) of gains through May was 207,000 […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market to enable a side by side comparison and the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both supply and mill shipments of sheet […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), iron ore and financial futures markets was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and our Managing Price Risk I & II instructor. Here is how Andre saw trading over the past week: Financial Markets: We continue to be the best […]
Earlier this week, World Steel Dynamics and their friends at AMM, hosted their Steel Success Strategies conference in New York City. Over the past 40 years the conference has become a magnet for those associated with the steel industry from around the world. Not everyone can afford to attend the conference which runs about $2300 […]
Myron J. Weiss, 83, partner at Mars Industries and Jame’ Roll Form Products passed away on Tuesday, June 9, 2015. Weiss co-founded the firm in 1975 and was a partner for the past 40 years. Mars Steel and Jame’ Roll Form Products, Inc. released the following message to colleagues and friends of Mr. Weiss: It […]
The steel world (which is not as large as it used to be) is in New York City this week to attend (lobby call) the Steel Success Strategies Conference hosted by World Steel Dynamics and their AMM partners. It is the one place (other than SMU Steel Summit Conference – hint, hint) where one can […]
According to Investopedia, a subsidy is “a benefit given by the government to groups or individuals usually in the form of a cash payment or tax reduction. The subsidy is usually given to remove some type of burden and is often considered to be in the interest of the public.” The example accompanying the definition […]
We have been hearing a lot about TPP and TPA. Here’s another acronym you should know—T-TIP. T-TIP stands for Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. The T-TIP is a trade and investment agreement being negotiated between the U.S. and the European Union. Launched by President Obama in 2013, T-TIP has taken a backseat to the Trans-Pacific […]
Global manufacturing advanced slightly in May according to the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing Survey. The Global PMI registered 51.2 last month, compared to 51.0 in April. International trade remained weak, however, as new export business decreased for the first time in two years. Production and new orders picked up in May after hitting lows in […]
The dollar is making another strong move upward. The Fed reports a daily nominal (non-inflation adjusted) index, the latest data for which is May 22nd with a value of 114.62 up 1.6 percent in 7 days. On March 13th the daily index peaked at 117.92, the highest value since May 13th 2004. Figure 1 shows […]
The Chicago Business Barometer lost its gains of April, falling back into contraction in May. The Barometer dropped 6.1 points to a reading of 45.2, down from 52.3 last month. The Barometer began slipping in October 2014 from its high of 55.2. Its strongest reading in 2015 was in January at 59.4 before plunging to […]
Steel Market Update closely follows the hot rolled futures market as a leading indicator of where “the money” is predicting HR steel prices to go in the future. We have added a new writer to our futures articles and he is very experienced in the trading of HRC futures, options and SWAPS. However, he has […]
The International Monetary Fund says the China’s currency is “no longer undervalued” after being labeled “modestly undervalued” for the past several years. According to a Tuesday statement by IMF, “While undervaluation of the renminbi was a major factor causing the large imbalances in the past, our assessment now is that the substantial real effective appreciation […]
The U.S. Senate passed the Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) agreement on May 22 in a 62-37 vote, giving the president “fast track” authority to negotiate trade agreements without amendments attached by Congress. Trade agreements would still be submitted to Congress, however, for a yes or no vote. An amendment proposed by Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) […]
The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board rose one point in May to 95.4 as April was revised downwards by one point. The composite value combines the view of the present situation and expectations. The view of the present situation rose from 105.1 to 108.1 as expectations fell slightly from 87.1 to […]
New orders for durable goods in April fell by $1.2 billion to $235.5 billion or 0.5 percent from March’s level. This was in line with analysts’ expectations. The three month moving average (3MMA) rose by 0.2 percent. There has been a sharp deviation of the 3MMA from its trend line in the last five months […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. For the first time this month we have broken out the relationship between the CFNAI and flat rolled and long product apparent supply separately. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), iron ore and financial futures markets was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and our Managing Price Risk I & II instructor. Here is how Andre saw trading over the past week: Financial Markets Well, the last time we spoke […]
The American Institute for International Steel (AIIS), Eurometal, and the International Steel Trade Association have agreed to establish a global steel supply chain partnership. The purpose is outlined in a press release from AIIS below: The purpose of their agreement is to establish a Global Steel Supply Chain Partnership as a framework for collaboration among […]
The Association of Steel Distributors has announced its new slate of executive committee members for 2015. Brian Robbins, CEO of MidWest Materials, Inc., Perry, Ohio, will continue as president of ASD. Robbins has been an active member of the ASD Board of Directors since 2004. “I am honored to be chosen to lead an organization […]
The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) says steel consumption in China will fall approximately 6 percent this year. The forecast is lower than was predicted by the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) which anticipates consumption to fall 4 percent this year, followed by 2 percent in 2016. Wang Liqun, vice chairman of […]