November revealed tentative signs that global manufacturing may be poised for a recovery. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose back into growth territory posting a seven-month high of 50.3. Consumer goods led the increase with accelerated growth in new orders and production. PMIs for intermediate and investment goods remained in contraction. Eleven of the 30 […]
Global steel production contracted in October for the first time since March 2016, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of OECD and WSA data. Figure 1 shows annualized monthly global steel production on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis and capacity utilization since January 2000. Based on OECD data (see below), capacity utilization in October […]
U.S. economic activity expanded modestly from October through mid-November and outlooks generally remained positive, according to the latest Beige Book Report from the Federal Reserve. The Fed surveys the business community eight times each year to track economic conditions in its 12 districts. The Nov. 27 Beige Book Report documents stable to modestly growing economic […]
Steel prices had upward momentum in November following multiple price increase announcements by the mills on flat rolled and plate products. Steel Buyers Sentiment moved upward along with the prices as service centers and OEMs anticipated a strengthening market. After bottoming in mid-October at around $480 per ton, the benchmark price for hot rolled steel […]
Manufacturing activity in the U.S. contracted at a faster rate in November, according to the latest Manufacturing ISM Report on Business. The PMI registered a 0.2 point decline for a reading of 48.1 percent and its fourth straight month in contraction. Most of the components of the PMI remained in contraction last month. Production, at […]
The Chicago Business Barometer rose 3.1 points to 46.3 in November, but remained in contraction for the third consecutive month. All but one component of the general index remained below the neutral 50.0 mark. New orders rose 12.5 points to 49.9, indicating an improvement in demand. Production slipped to 42.3. Order backlogs rebounded from October’s […]
Durable goods orders rose 0.6 percent in October, beating economists’ expectations of a 1 percent or more decline. Most of the increase was due to orders for military equipment including an 18 percent increase for military aircraft. A bright spot for the metals industry in October was a 1.8 percent increase in fabricated metal product […]
The Conference Board’s September-November reports on consumer confidence show an increased weakening of people’s expectations. Consumer confidence as reported by The Conference Board is quite a volatile indicator; therefore, we prefer to smooth the data with a moving average to reduce monthly variability. The composite value of consumer confidence in November was 125.5 with a […]
U.S. gross domestic product had positive growth in every region of the country in each of the first two quarters of 2019, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data. The BEA reports GDP by state and region on a quarterly basis. This data is released several weeks after the national report. The latest data was […]
Metalforming companies reported continued weakness in the market in the latest survey by the Precision Metalforming Association. The PMA November 2019 Business Conditions Report showed 34 percent of participants expect a decline in economic activity and 51 percent expect no change. “The November PMA Business Conditions Report showed little change from the previous month. Metalforming […]
Billings increased for architectural design services in October after two months of decline, reported the American Institute of Architects. The Architecture Billings Index rose to 52.0 from 49.7 in September. New project inquiries and design contract scores were somewhat lower but both positive at scores of 57.9 and 52.9, respectively. “Although ongoing uncertainty over the […]
SMU contributor Gaurav Chhibbar is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Gaurav’s previous role, he was a trader at Cargill spending time in […]
Steel Market Update is please to share this Premium content with Executive-level subscribers. For information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Manufacturing output shows contraction in nine of the 10 indicators analyzed by Steel Market Update, which helps to explain the current weakness in steel demand in some sectors. This report […]
The Association of Steel Distributors has named Bill Hickey, chairman of Lapham-Hickey Steel Corp. in Chicago, as its 2019 Steel Executive of the Year. Hickey served as president of the family-owned service center for 40 years, growing the company to 10 locations and 700 employees before stepping back from day-to-day management. Son Brian now serves […]
Manufacturing activity in New York State changed very little from October to November. The general business conditions component of the Empire State Manufacturing Index posted a 2.9 for November, indicating sluggish manufacturing growth for the sixth consecutive month. The shipments index fell four points to 8.8 and new orders increased slightly to 5.5, still above […]
Manufacturers still face slowing business conditions for 2020, according to the Deloitte 2020 Manufacturing Industry Outlook. Deloitte projects that annual manufacturing GDP growth will end 2019 at 2.7 percent and at 1.3 percent for 2020, down from prior projections of 3.7 and 2.0 percent, respectively. Job growth was muted in 2019 with the manufacturing sector […]
The U.S. dollar has weakened against 11 of the 16 steel trading nation currencies in the last three months. In this report we examine the change in currency values of the 16 preeminent global steel and iron ore trading nations. The currencies of these 16 don’t necessarily follow the Broad Index value of the U.S, […]
The third quarter of 2019 saw a disappointing decrease in labor productivity. The labor productivity of nonfarm businesses decreased by 0.3 percent in the quarter. Unit labor costs increased 3.1 percent year over year, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. Unit labor costs and productivity changes are […]
Change and growth, both personal and professional, were the dominant topics at the 2019 Annual Conference of the Association of Women in the Metal Industries, held in San Antonio Nov. 6-9. Beginning with a workshop by Asbury Group CEO Kailei Carr—”Unveil Your Most Powerful Self”—and ending with Anne Phelon, CEO at Merrett Davies International—”Moving from […]
The composite producer price index of all commodities peaked in October last year and in 12 months through September has declined by 3.2 percent. This Steel Market Update report is an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data and is intended to provide subscribers with a view of the competitive position of sheet steel, aluminum, […]
Demand for steel sheet products declined by more than the seasonal norm in September. This analysis by Steel Market Update is based on steel mill shipment data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and import/export data from the U.S. Department of Commerce (DoC). The analysis summarizes total steel supply by product from 2003 […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations or comments […]
Needle coke and graphite electrode availability has been under pressure since 2017 following substantial financially and environmentally driven capacity closures, particularly in China. With prices under pressure in 2019, and margins rapidly falling, the graphite electrode and needle coke markets appear to be at a crossroads with many questions about the future for these markets. […]
The Dodge Momentum Index increased 6.9 percent in October to 152.6 from a revised September reading of 142.7. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Data & Analytics, is a monthly measure of the first report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which has been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel HR futures markets have been range-trading the last few weeks as participants have been focusing on what appears to be a […]
The global manufacturing downturn showed some signs of easing in October. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI posted 49.8, still in contraction but rising for the third consecutive month. The intermediate goods sector fell to a three-month low of 48.8, but PMIs for consumer and investor goods saw expansion in October. The Eurozone remained in contraction […]
The rate of job creation in October slowed, partly due to the GM strike. Net job creation in October declined to 128,000 from an upwardly revised 180,000 in September. August was revised up by 51,000 and September up by 44,000. In combination, this was the highest upwards two-month revision that we can remember. Rising employment […]
Jobs have been lost in the primary metals sector in each of the last seven months. In October, 10,000 jobs were created in construction, while manufacturing industries lost 36,000 jobs. A reported 131,000 jobs were created in the private sector, while government lost 3,000 positions. Table 1 breaks total employment down into service and goods-producing […]
Steel prices continued their decline in October to an average hot rolled price below $500 per ton, prompting a $40 per ton price increase announcement by the flat rolled mills late in the month. With a price change in play, Steel Market Update switched its Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral. Widespread concerns about the declining […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison On Oct. 30, the Fed cut rates by 25bp as was widely anticipated (including by us), lowering the Federal Funds rate to a range of 1.50 percent-1.75 percent. Based on the Fed statement and comments during Chair Powell’s press conference, the Fed seems pleased with where monetary policy is, […]