The Chicago Business Barometer remained in contraction for the ninth month, declining 1.1 points in March to 47.8. New orders fell 7.9 percent while production slipped back into contraction. Order backlogs rose to their highest level since December 2019. “While some firms reported a rise in orders due to stockpiling by U.S. customers, others noted […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook Overview March 2020 The global impact of Covid-19 has been profound. Lockdowns of countries and regions are now the norm. Uncertainty about the “end game” has fueled financial market volatility and prompted unprecedented government support. CRU is now forecasting a global recession in 2020; […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel This month HR physical prices as reflected by the index basically started at $560/ST and rose $20-plus to hold, then fell […]
Unemployment claims skyrocketed to nearly 3.3 million last week, compared to 282,000 filings the prior week. The number of Americans that have lost jobs due to the coronavirus is staggering. As governments shutter nonessential businesses and ask employees to stay home, companies have been forced to lay off and cut jobs for an unprecedented number […]
Orders for durable goods jumped 1.2 percent in February, but the uptick is not expected to last. Stay-at-home orders and rising unemployment due to the COVID-19 outbreak are likely to stifle demand as the economy heads into a recession. The volatile transportation category saw new orders for civilian aircraft dip 0.3 percent after a 356.7 […]
With so many people working from home lately, technology is becoming even more important in their professional lives. Analysts at Crowe LLP are studying the technology trends to help metals companies develop strategies to take advantage of the latest developments, and they could use your help. The 2019 Crowe Technology Survey revealed that most companies […]
Global steel production was relatively strong in February, but that was before the coronavirus really began to slow the economy. The IMF projects that the impending global recession will be as bad or worse than the global financial crisis a decade ago . Figure 1 shows annualized monthly global steel production on a three-month moving […]
Editor’s note: Various states, counties and cities have issued some form of “shelter-in-place” or “stay-at-home” orders including California, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Oregon, Ohio, Connecticut and Illinois, as well as cities such as St. Louis, Kansas City, New Orleans and some counties in Colorado, Georgia and Idaho, among others. The list grows by the […]
The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) is urging the Trump administration to identify the steel manufacturing sector and its workers as “essential” when drafting and enforcing shelter-in-place orders and other directives in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. “As the Secretary of Commerce determined in 2018, steel is important to national security well beyond obvious […]
SMU contributor Tim Stevenson is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Tim’s previous role, he was a Director at Cargill Risk Management, and […]
Yesterday Steel Market Update received a note from USS/POSCO regarding their waiver from the mandatory “shelter in their place of residence” order within Contra Costa County in California. UPI received their waiver due to the “essential nature of UPI’s business and services.” SMU anticipates there may be situations that arise where a mill, manufacturing company […]
The currencies of the commodity dependent nations have crashed in a flight to the safe haven of the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar strengthened against 13 of the 16 steel and raw materials trading nation currencies in the last three months. In the last 30 days, the currencies of Brazil, Mexico and Russia were down […]
In the last 12 months, the price declines of cold rolled carbon steel and aluminum sheet have been similar. This report is an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data and is intended to provide subscribers with a view of the competitive position of sheet steel, aluminum, plastic and wood. The analysis includes some downstream […]
In the last 12 months the competitive position of steel sheet has improved against aluminum, plastic and wood. This report is an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data and is intended to provide subscribers with a view of where sheet steel stands in terms of pricing compared with aluminum, plastic and wood. The analysis […]
Mill shipments of sheet products in January were the highest since August 2019. This analysis is based on steel mill shipment data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and import-export data from the U.S. Department of Commerce (DoC). This month we are producing a new report for long products and will follow this […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index plummeted 34 points in March to register -21.5, its steepest point drop on record and its lowest level since 2009. Forty-two percent of New York manufacturers surveyed reported that business conditions had worsened during the period. The new orders index tumbled 31 points to -9.3 while shipments fell 20.6 points […]
Demand for long products declined by 3.5 percent in the three months through January, but rebar was up by 9.6 percent. This analysis is based on steel mill shipment data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and import-export data from the U.S. Department of Commerce (DoC). It summarizes total steel supply by product […]
Covid-19 continues to spread globally, now detected in at least 103 countries. More than 80,000 cases have been reported in the epicenter of China and worldwide more than 114,500 people have been infected. The number of deaths reported has jumped to over 4,000. Testing for the virus has been slow in the U.S. as the […]
Crowe, a public accounting, consulting and technology firm, will host a workshop–“Technology Strategies: How Metals Companies are Making Digital Transformation a Reality”–as part of the 2020 SMU Steel Summit Conference. The workshop will be held at the Marriott Gateway Hotel next to the Georgia International Convention Center on Monday, Aug. 24, just prior to the […]
In February, job creation beat expectations, and there is no sign of a virus effect even in the details. Net job creation in February was a surprising 273,000. In addition, December was revised up by 37,000 and January up by 48,000. Rising employment and wages are the main contributors to GDP growth because personal consumption […]
February’s employment report showed a turnaround in manufacturing, while construction continued to boom. The net increase in employed persons was 273,000 in February, the same as an upwardly revised result for January. In February, 42,000 jobs were created in construction and 15,000 jobs in manufacturing. The private sector gained 228,000 jobs in February and government […]
Thomas Gibson, president and CEO of the American Iron and Steel Institute, will retire this fall. A search for his successor begins immediately. Gibson has led AISI since September 2008. Under his leadership, the institute successfully advocated for legislation to strengthen the trade laws against unfair trade practices and level the playing field for steel […]
Now a rising concern in the U.S., the coronavirus is not only a tragic pandemic but a major economic disruption. The public is now invited to join the CRU Webinar: “How COVID-19 is affecting CRU’s outlook for 2020,” hosted by CRU economic and commodity experts and recorded on March 5. Click below to view additional […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel In the midst of a fairly volatile news cycle in the last month with the COVID-19 virus stealing the headlines, the […]
The coronavirus has begun to affect business in the United States, according to the latest Federal Reserve “Beige Book.” The economy is moving forward at a modest to moderate pace, but growth is uneven. The virus appears to be negatively impacting travel and tourism in the U.S., which showed only moderate to flat growth in […]
In just a few weeks from the first known case, the COVID-19 outbreak has wreaked havoc on the global manufacturing sector. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI posted a steep decline in February, falling to 47.2 from 50.4 in January, its lowest level since May 2009. New orders and production fell at record rates in […]
U.S. manufacturing activity grew only slightly in February, according to the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. The Institute for Supply Management reported that the February PMI decreased 0.8 points to 50.1, just above the no-change mark of 50. The PMI for new orders fell into contraction at 49.8, while production dropped four points to […]
Looking back at the numbers for February, flat rolled steel prices declined from January, with the benchmark price of hot rolled dipping to a monthly average of $576 per ton. Steel Market Update’s Current and Future Steel Buyers Sentiment Indexes showed some erosion, likely as a response to the weak steel prices and concerns over […]
The Chicago Business Barometer nearly emerged from contraction in February. The manufacturing index, produced by MNI Indicators, gained 6.1 points to post 49.0, the highest level since August 2019. The three-month average for the index edged up to 46.7. Production reached an eight-month high, gaining 8.3 points to register 51.0 after seven straight months below […]
SMU contributor Tim Stevenson is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Tim’s previous role, he was a Director at Cargill Risk Management, and […]