The South Central region of the U.S. created the most jobs in the fourth quarter of 2019, with the Pacific in second place, based on government employment data. Fourth-quarter regional employment data by state was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday. The state data follows and confirms the employment situation that […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel The HR futures curve, while higher in the near months, has shifted lower from Q2’20 through the end of 2020. Recent index […]
The Architecture Billings Index rose for the third month in a row reaching 52.5 in December, according to the latest report by the American Institute of Architects. A reading above 50 indicates an increase in design services by architecture firms. Indices for new project inquiries and design contracts were positive, at 58.7 and 53.4, respectively. […]
Import/export steel prices lead the market higher, reported CRU experts in a webinar recorded on Jan. 17 as part of the monthly webcast series within CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service. The 25-minute presentation can be viewed any time by clicking the link below. Overview Matt Watkins discusses developments at the global level in the internationally […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Based on Steel Market Update’s analysis of 10 indicators in January, the decline in U.S. manufacturing continues. This report summarizes 10 data streams that describe the state of U.S. […]
In January, we have replaced the British pound in this report with the Vietnamese dong in recognition that Vietnam is now a much bigger player in the global steel market than is the UK. The U.S. dollar has strengthened against 13 of the 16 steel trading nation currencies in the last three months. In this […]
The composite producer price index of commodities peaked in October 2018, then through December 2019 declined by 2.6 percent. This Steel Market Update report is an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data and is intended to provide subscribers with a view of the competitive position of sheet steel, aluminum, plastic and wood. The analysis […]
The official economic statistics out of China show a decline in GDP to a level slightly lower than the depths of the global recession in 2009. China’s share of global steel production was 54.3 percent in November. Once each quarter we publish the official statistics for Chinese GDP, industrial production, consumer price inflation and fixed […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subcription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. This month we have expanded our report on steel product downstream shipments and inventories to include total manufacturing. We are (but shouldn’t be) surprised by the result, which confirms […]
Manufacturing in New York State expanded modestly in January. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey’s general business conditions index gained 1.5 points to post 4.8 for the month. Shipments posted 8.6, down one point from December, but new orders gained 4.9 points to post 8.6. Unfilled orders continued to decline, delivery times were shorter, and inventories […]
American business is facing a year of opportunity and uncertainty, says U.S. Chamber of Commerce CEO Thomas Donohue. In an address on the State of American Business, Donahue points to a “patchwork” of state rules and regulations that will stifle the free flow of goods and services if left unchecked. Data privacy is one example […]
The number of jobs created in December declined from the excellent November result on a seasonally adjusted basis. Net job creation in December declined to 145,000 from November’s exceptional result of 256,000. October and November were both revised down by 10,000. Rising employment and wages are the main contributors to GDP growth because personal consumption […]
Job creation decline by 21.3 percent in 2019, compared with 2018, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The December employment reports were delayed by a week due to the holidays. In December, 20,000 jobs were created in construction and 12,000 jobs were lost in manufacturing. The private sector gained 139,000 jobs in December as […]
Indicators of economic activity through Jan. 10 data do not predict an imminent U.S. recession. In this report, we have identified eight indicators that have some predictive ability about the short-term likelihood of a recession (definition below). Viewed individually, these don’t offer much insight into the future, but viewed collectively they give subscribers a better […]
The three themes which will run through CRU analysis this year: China’s economic re-balancing, FX currency movements, and Environmental and Social Governance. 2020 brings opportunities and challenges for commodity markets. CRU has drawn on conversations between our market experts and people from all parts of commodity market value chains—from miner to end-use consumer—and we have […]
The industry finished 2019 with steel prices on the rebound. Steel Market Update’s Steel Pricing Momentum Indicator pointed upward in December as the mills worked to collect higher prices announced in four waves beginning in late October. The benchmark price for hot rolled steel rose to more than $570 per ton by the end of […]
The December Manufacturing ISM Report on Business showed economic activity contracting in the U.S. last month. The PMI fell 0.9 points to 47.2 percent and its lowest reading since July 2009. A PMI below 50 indicates business is contracting and a reading above 50 indicates expansion. The December PMI marks the fifth consecutive month of contraction. […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more informtion on upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. The December report of Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board shows stability at a high level based on 10 years of history. Consumer confidence as reported by the Conference Board is […]
The Chicago Business Barometer remained in contraction with a reading below 50 in December, but rose 2.6 points to 48.9. An increase in production and supplier deliveries helped boost the PMI for the month, said MNI Indicators. The production PMI rose 4.9 points to 47.2 The index for supplier deliveries gained 5.1 points to register […]
About half of the nations surveyed by J.P Morgan and IHS Markit ended the year with manufacturing PMIs in contraction, with conditions especially poor in the Eurozone. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1 last month from 50.3 in November indicating business conditions remained weak at the end of 2019. The intermediate and […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of November 2019, providing updated data on iron ore imports, scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in November totaled 90,652,000 metric tons, a decrease of 2.4 percent from the previous month, but an increase of 5.1 percent from […]
Steel production in the U.S. declined in the period from September-November 2019, but by less than the rest of the world, excluding China, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of World Steel Association data. Figure 1 shows annualized monthly global steel production on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis and capacity utilization since January […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen, from the CRU Steel Sheet Products Market Outlook Global Economic Outlook: 2019 has been an eventful year. Many decisions were taken, including tariffs and monetary policy easing. Other decisions were put-off, such as Brexit and auto tariffs. Looking back to our expectations at the start of 2019, four things […]
Orders of durable goods in November declined at their sharpest rate since May, falling 2.0 percent after a downward revision to October’s data. Economists were expecting orders to rebound by more than 1.0 percent in November. A boost in transportation orders was anticipated due to the ending of the GM strike. Orders for autos and […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level subscribers. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. The U.S. economy continued to grow in 2019, but at a slower rate as the year progressed. The third estimate of U.S. GDP growth in Q3 2019 was 2.1 […]
Fitch Ratings, a global leader in credit ratings and research, is forecasting a negative outlook for the global steel industry in 2020 and challenging conditions in North America. The Fitch Ratings 2020 Outlook: Global Steel notes weaker economic growth impacted by ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions. “Over the past two years companies have talked at […]
Members of the Precision Metalforming Association are a bit more positive about business conditions for 2020. The December PMA Business Conditions Report shows an uptick in the percentage of survey participants who predict an improvement in economic activity during the next three months, while also noting a decline in current average daily shipping levels. The […]
The U.S. dollar has weakened against 12 of the 16 steel trading nation currencies in the last three months. In this report we examine the change in currency values of the 16 pre-eminent global steel and iron ore trading nations. The currencies of these 16 don’t necessarily follow the Broad Index value of the U.S. […]
Based on Steel Market Update’s analysis of 10 indicators, there is a faint glow in the manufacturing environment. This report summarizes 10 data streams that describe the state of U.S. manufacturing in general and the steel industry in particular. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market Update publications, and therefore […]
SMU contributor Gaurav Chhibbar is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Gaurav’s previous role, he was a trader at Cargill spending time in […]