Consumer confidence increased strongly in August and the three-month moving average (3MMA) had the largest monthly increase since October last year, according to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in August was 133.4, up from 127.9 in July. The 3MMA increased from 127.9 in July to 129.5 in August, […]
Consumer confidence surged again in September to its highest level since September 2000, according to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in September was 138.4, up from 134.7 in August. The three-month moving average (3MMA) increased from 129.9 in August to 133.6 in September, which was 13.3 points higher […]
Economic indicators of manufacturing activity continue to look favorable for the rest of 2018. This report summarizes nine data sources that describe the state of manufacturing in the United States. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market Update publications, and therefore will be brief in this summary. We don’t expect […]
August saw our SMU Price Momentum Indicator move from Neutral to Lower indicating our expectation that we will see prices drop over the next 30-60 days. The last couple of weeks of August and into early September has seen prices dropping and the trend does not appear ready to abate quite yet. Our Sentiment Index […]
The ISM Manufacturing Index reached a 14 year high as new orders, production and employment made strong gains in August. The Index issued by the Institute for Supply Management, jumped 3.2 points to a reading of 61.3, far exceeding the consensus for a posting of 57.6. New orders increased 4.9 points to 65.1, production 4.8 […]
Global manufacturing was subdued in August said J.P. Morgan and IHS Markit. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI was at a 21 month low of 52.5 in August, down 0.3 points from July. “August PMI data signaled a slight firming in global manufacturing output growth to a solid pace at near three percent annualized,” said […]
The August Chicago Business Barometer recorded its first decrease in five months for a three-month low of 63.6 in August. The index was down 1.9 points from July’s reading of 65.5, according to MNI Indicators and the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago. Output and orders inched up slightly last month giving some firms breathing room to […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel Due to the Monday UK bank holiday and the Atlanta SMU Steel Summit Conference this week, we had a slow start to […]
U.S. gross domestic product grew in every region of the country in the last quarter of 2017 and the first quarter of 2018, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data. The BEA introduced a new data set for GDP by state and region in 2014 and backdated it to Q1 2005. This week, the data […]
Flack Global Metals announced the appointment of David Feldstein to Chief Market Risk Officer. Feldstein will bring more than 15 years of extensive knowledge of commodity markets along with a history of customized and profitable financial structuring to assist customers and the FGM team in presenting, training, quoting and executing a wide range of fixed price […]
Durable goods orders fell more than expected in July, dipping 1.7 percent, according to data from the Commerce Department. The decrease was primarily due to a 34 percent plunge in commercial aircraft orders. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders were up 0.2 percent. Core capital goods, orders minus defense and aircraft, gained 1.4 percent last month […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market was written by David Feldstein. As the Flack Global Metals Director of Risk Management, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled futures market, and we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Besides writing futures articles for Steel […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of July 2018, providing updated data on iron ore imports, scrap imports and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in July totaled 89,960,000 metric tons, an increase of 8.1 percent from the previous month, and an increase of 4.3 percent from […]
Metalforming companies are struggling with higher steel prices and longer lead times as a result of Section 232 tariffs, but are still expecting business conditions to improve during the next three months. The Precision Metalforming Association’s August Business Conditions Report showed 29 percent of participants expect an increase in economic activity, 62 percent expect no […]
Architecture billings growth slowed in July, according to the American Institute of Architects. The AIA Architecture Billings Index slipped to 50.7 from 51.3 in June. A score over 50 indicates billing growth, but on a regional basis only the South registered growing demand with an index reading of 55.2. Regional averages in the remainder of […]
Editor’s note: The following was contributed by Analyst Ryan Cochrane of the CRU Group. Global concentrate inventories first reached critical levels in 2017 Q1, leading to Chinese smelter utilization rates falling below 90 percent and remaining at depressed levels since. Without much buffer concentrate stock remaining, the relationship between mine supply and Chinese smelter output […]
Editor’s note: The following was contributed by analysts at the CRU Group. The Turkish-U.S. political relationship has soured sharply in the past week. U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted relations were “not so good” on Friday, Aug. 10, and doubled tariffs on U.S. imports of Turkish steel. Turkish President Erdogan responded with anger, suggesting the country […]
Productivity growth was strong in the second quarter and unit labor costs increased 1.9 percent year over year, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. Unit labor costs and productivity changes are reported quarterly by the BLS and results for Q2 2018 were released this week. This basic […]
Gaurav Chhibbar is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this new role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategy for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Gaurav’s previous role, he was a Trader at Cargill spending time in Metal […]
Manufacturers in New York State reported growing business activity in August, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York says the general business index of the survey climbed three points to 25.6 as new orders and shipments remained strong. The new orders index slipped about a point to […]
The U.S. economy created 157,000 net jobs in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, down from 248,000 in June, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data released on Friday. This decline was partly mitigated by revisions to May and June, which improved by 24,000 and 4,000, respectively. Conditions remain very positive in the U.S. […]
Steel Market Update celebrates its 10-year anniversary this month. In August 2008, John Packard incorporated the Steel Market Update newsletter and began selling subscriptions to those interested in learning more about what was happening in the flat rolled steel industry. As a steel veteran with more than 30 years of sales experience, Packard believed he […]
Consumer confidence increased in July after a small dip in June, but the three-month moving average (3MMA) advanced in each of those months, according to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in July was 127.4, up from 127.1 in June. The 3MMA increased from 127.2 in June to 127.8 […]
There are no clouds on manufacturing’s horizon. Economic indicators of manufacturing activity are virtually all positive for the remainder of 2018, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of nine data sources that describe the state of manufacturing in the United States. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market Update publications, […]
The U.S. economy grew at a 4.1 percent rate in the second quarter, up from 2.2 percent in the first quarter, according to the government’s first estimate of the gross domestic product. Growth of second-quarter GDP was the best since third-quarter 2014, and on a trailing 12-month basis has improved for the last eight quarters, […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market was written by David Feldstein. As the Flack Global Metals Director of Risk Management, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled futures market, and we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Besides writing futures articles for Steel […]
The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing ISM Report on Business expanded for the 111th month in July. The PMI registered a solid 58.1, although decreasing 2.1 points from the June reading of 60.1 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally […]
The rate of expansion for global manufacturing slowed in July, according the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI. The index reached its lowest reading in a year at 52.7, down from 53.0 in June. “The manufacturing upturn has lost sizeable momentum since the start of the year. However, with final demand growth having firmed in recent […]
July saw rising steel prices leveling out, prompting Steel Market Update to move its Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral. The price of hot rolled averaged around $910 and cold rolled around $1,000 a ton for the month. With prices for scrap seeing only modest changes from week to week, it’s difficult to predict what steel […]
The Chicago Business Barometer hit a six-month high in June, gaining 1.4 points to post at 65.5. New orders and production also reached six-month highs, increasing 8.0 percent and 10.6 percent, respectively. Increasing demand led to a third month of growth for order backlogs. The indicator posted a nine-month high with firms reporting unfinished work […]