Contributor: Michael Cowden

Sheet prices slipped again this week on a combination of moderate demand, increased imports, and higher import volumes.

Here’s something I didn’t expect to see this week: SMU’s Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index dropped to its lowest point since August 2020.

Cleveland-Cliffs is seeking at least $800 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled (HR) coil with the opening of its July order book. The Cleveland-based steelmaker said the move was effective immediately in a letter to customers on Thursday, May 23. Recall that Cliffs announced in April that it would publish a monthly HR price. The […]

Veteran StoneX futures broker Spencer Johnson will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat on Wednesday, May 29, at 11 am ET. You can register here. Note that the live webinar is free for all to attend. A recording will be available only to SMU members.

Our spot price is little changed this week after moving sharply lower last week on the heels of Nucor’s unexpected price cut. Here’s one thought on that trend: Nucor's weekly HR price (aka, its “Consumer Spot Price” or CSP) has to date functioned almost more like a monthly price.

CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat on Wednesday, May 15, at 11 am ET. You can register here. Note that the live webinar is free for all to attend. A recording will be available only to SMU members.

Unless you've been under a rock, you know by know that Nucor's published HR price for this week is $760 per short ton, down $65/st from the company’s $825/st a week ago. I could use more colorful words. But I think it’s safe to say that most of the market was not expecting this. For starters, US sheet mills never announce price decreases. (OK, not never. It has come to my attention that Severstal North America rescinded a price increase back on Feb. 14, 2012. And it caused quite the ruckus.)

Is it just me, or does it seem like the summer doldrums might have arrived a little early? I could be wrong there. It’s possible we could see a jump in prices should buyers need to step back into the market to restock. I’ll be curious to see what service center inventories are when we update those figures on May 15. In the meantime, just about everyone we survey thinks HR prices have peaked or soon will. (See slide 17 in the April 26 survey.) Lead times have flattened out. And some of you tell me that you’re starting to see signs of them pulling back. (We’ll know more when we update our lead time data on Thursday.)

CRU principal analyst Ryan McKinley will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat on Wednesday, May 15, at 11 am ET. McKinley is instrumental in determining CRU’s benchmark hot-rolled (HR) coil price. He’ll discuss his role, his background in steel, and how the index works.

U.S. Steel posted slightly lower Q1’24 earnings as stronger earnings from its sheet mills were partially offset by a weaker performance from it tubular division. All told, the Pittsburgh-based steelmaker reported Q1’24 earnings of $171 million. That's down 14.1% from $199 million in Q1’23 on sales that fell 6.9% to $4.16 billion in the same comparison.

ArcelorMittal posted a narrower Q1’24 profit compared to Q1’23 but remained optimistic about steel's long-term demand prospects.

Hold-rolled (HR) prices held roughly steady this week after slipping for much of April. I don’t have any spicy quotes to offer about mostly flat prices. Besides, a lot of the questions I’ve gotten recently have been about demand. Some of you tell me that it’s still stable or improving. Others tell me that it’s suddenly dried up.

What a difference a month makes. In late March, it seemed like the US hot-rolled (HR) coil market was poised to cycle upward. Large buyers had re-entered the market and placed big orders earlier in the month. Several outages were underway or upcoming. And expectations were that lead times would continue to extend. Cliffs said […]

I’ve gotten some questions lately about whether the huge gap between domestic hot-rolled coil (HR) prices and those for cold-rolled (CR) and coated is sustainable. I remember being asked similar questions about the wide spread between HR and plate that developed in early 2022. I thought at the time that there was no way that spread could hold. Turned out, I was wrong. That was humbling. And so I’m not going to make any bold predictions this time.

Algoma Steel Inc. expects to wrap up a previously announced outage on its plate mill by the end of this month, a company spokeswoman said. The outage is part of the Canadian flat-rolled steelmaker’s $130 million CAD ($95 million USD) modernization project. It began in mid-April.

Hybar CEO David Stickler will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, May 1, at 11 a.m. ET. The live webinar is free. A recording will be available to SMU members. You can register here.

We've used the word "unprecedented" a lot over the last four years to describe steel price volatility. Over the last two months – despite earlier predictions of a price surge - we've seen unprecedented stability.

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. continued to lose money in the first quarter, with the steelmaker blaming the loss in part on the idling of its tinplate facility in Weirton, W.Va.

I was in Las Vegas last week for ISRI’s annual convention. I like Vegas. I’ve had some fun there over the years. (I was married there nearly 20 years ago. We're still together.) And last week was no exception. So let’s start with the big news from Sin City. When the recycled materials industry meets for the big event next year, it will be under the banner of "ReMA" – not "ISRI".

Workers at Volkswagen's assembly plant in Chattanooga, Tenn., have voted overwhelmingly to join the United Autoworkers (UAW) union. More than 3,600 ballots were cast, with 73% of Chattanooga workers voting to join the UAW and only 27% voting against unionization, per the UAW.

The steel market appears to be finding a new, higher normal with the shocks of the pandemic and the Ukraine in the rearview mirror. The good news: a more profitable and consolidated post-Covid US steel industry has been able to invest in operations. That includes efforts to decarbonize. The bad news: That “new normal” could be tested. Because it’s not just domestic sheet prices that have been volatile. Geopolitics are too.

I’m writing these Final thoughts from the 2024 ISRI Convention and Exposition in Las Vegas. I wasn’t the only one with the good idea to attend. Approximately 6,625 others did – a new record for the event. So, a big congratulations to ISRI.

Last week was a newsy one for the US sheet market. Nucor’s announcement that it would publish a weekly HR spot price was the talk of the town – whether that was in chatter among colleagues, at the Boy Scouts of America Metals Industry dinner, or in SMU’s latest market survey. Some think that it could Nucor's spot HR price could bring stability to notoriously volatile US sheet prices, according to SMU's latest steel market survey. Others think it’s too early to gauge its impact. And still others said they were leery of any attempt by producers to control prices.

Ken Simonson, chief economist for The Associated General Contractors of America (AGC), will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, April 17, at 11 a.m. ET. The live webinar is free. A recording will be available free to SMU members. You can register here.

Nucor made waves in the sheet market when it announced on Friday that it would begin publishing a weekly hot-rolled (HR) coil price. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker arguably made even bigger waves on Monday when it posted its first weekly HR number: $830 per short ton. That’s $70/st lower than the $900/st HR price Cliffs announced in late March. It’s also lower than prices in the mid-$800s that other mills were (less publicly) seeking.

Nucor said its spot hot-rolled (HR) coil price this week will be $830 per short ton (st).

Mercury Resources CEO Anton Posner will be the featured speaker on SMU’s next Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, April 10, at 11 a.m. ET. The live webinar is free. You can register here. A recording of the webinar and the slide deck will be available only for SMU members.

Sheet prices continue to inch higher. That’s a welcome development for many. But it’s also a far cry from the price surge many predicted about a month ago. Remember the theory that supported a spring surge: Sheet prices would soar on a combination of mill outages, stable-to-strong demand, restocking, mill price increases, and (potentially) trade action against Mexico as well.

Nucor plans to publish a weekly spot price for hot-rolled (HR) coil beginning on Monday, April 8, according to a press release and letters to customers. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker said its published HR price would be derived from “both quantitative and qualitative data” in the letter to customers on Thursday, April 4.

You might have noticed that SMU has been publishing more articles about scrap in recent months. That was no accident. In fact, we’ve found enough of an audience that CRU, our parent company, has decided to launch a new publication – Recycled Metals Update, or RMU. It cover both ferrous and nonferrous scrap. RMU’s website is here. You can go there now and request a 30-day free trial. It’s that simple.