By CRU Research Managers Sarah Macnaughton and Paul Butterworth, and contribution from CRU Sustainability Analysts Zsombor Garzo International trade is an essential part of the global steel industry, with over 20% of steel production traded today. However, as the world moves towards decarbonization, CRU finds that established trade flows are at risk. The green transition […]
By CRU Research Manager Paul Butterworth, from CRU’s Steel Raw Materials and Steel Costs CRU price and cost forecasts suggest that the steel sector generally will return close to steady-state, or “through-cycle,” levels of profitability over the five-year forecast period. However, as our analysis highlights, steady-state profitability of individual steel mills has varied widely in […]
By CRU Research Manager Paul Butterworth and Analyst Alexander Ordosch, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service The global Covid-19 outbreak has resulted in sharply falling steel demand all over the world. For the steel industry, it is a challenging task to reduce production levels as ~75 percent of global output is produced through the BF/BOF, […]
By CRU Research Manager Paul Butterworth, from CRU’s Steel Monitor CRU has massively downgraded forecast GDP growth in China to 1-2 percent for 2020 and we now expect the USA and Eurozone to fall into recession. Global GDP growth is now expected to be 1 percent for the year, an effective global recession. While economic […]
By CRU Research Manager Paul Butterworth, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service Activity in steel end-use sectors in China is recovering as per CRU’s base case, but evidence suggests that demand may start to run ahead of our base case in the near term. Encouraged by government stimulus measures, there is a lot of optimism […]
By CRU Analyst Arshiya Sibia and Research Manager Paul Butterworth, from CRU’s Steel Monitor Current information from our China team shows that steel demand is closely tracking our base case forecast for the impact of Covid-19, though steel production remains slightly higher than we had forecast. While our forecast was for steel demand to return […]
By CRU Research Manager Paul Butterworth and Analyst Zhenzhen Jiang, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service The loss of steel demand from Covid-19 has pushed Chinese steelmakers to either reduce utilization or idle capacity but, as steel stocks at mills reach critical levels, they will increasingly seek to offload in the export market. Decisions by […]
By CRU Research Manager Paul Butterworth, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service Although profitability for domestic sales in China has fallen sharply in 2019, steel exports from the country have not risen. Historically, when domestic profitability dropped, exports would rise. Prior analysis has shown that the strength of the domestic market is a key driver […]
By CRU Research Manager Paul Butterworth Profitability in the steel industry is highly volatile with the last few years particularly seeing a huge swing in profits. Some producers saw margins hit ten-year highs only to see them quickly fall away, with many becoming loss-making in recent months. As steelmakers navigate the ups and downs of […]