By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett and Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook This month has brought good and bad news. On the one hand, vaccines are being rolled out, and further U.S. fiscal stimulus looks increasingly likely. On the other hand, the growing severity of the second wave of COVID-19 means […]
On Wednesday at noon the Biden administration will take over the Executive Branch of the U.S. government. President Biden is planning on hitting the ground running as he works to control the pandemic, put the U.S. back in the Paris Climate Accord, and (unfortunately) deal with a country fractured by Trump insurrectionists. Biden has made […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis An administrative change in Washington, D.C., arrives this week. Some of the parties with vested interests in Section 232 are already messaging the Biden administration. On Jan. 13, the American Primary Aluminum Association (APAA), which consists of Century Aluminum and Magnitude Seven Aluminum, sent a letter to President-elect Biden […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis The primary aluminum industry has operated with the same technology since the large-scale production process was developed in 1886. It is a carbon-based electrolytic process. This process generates a lot of CO2. Global aluminum producers have been focused on reducing GHG for some time, but efforts have accelerated in […]
By CRU Research Analyst Yusu Mao, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service Last week, Turkish scrap import prices fell for the first time since September 2020. CRU recorded two deals and assessed HMS 1/2 80:20 at $446 /t CFR (- $34 /t w/w, -$27 /t m/m). The enlarged spread between HMS 1/2 80:20 and shredded […]
By CRU Prices Analyst George Pearson from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor HR coil import prices and lead times are now competitive with domestic mills in the U.S. and Europe. Both markets remain tight in the short-term, but this is giving buyers more optionality for forward deliveries than in previous months and some negotiation power […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor In the past week, iron ore has witnessed its steepest price fall since July 2019. Declining steel margins in China and mills having successfully built up inventories, in combination with an upcoming Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, resulted in weaker buying interest. Supply side […]
By CRU Prices Analyst George Pearson, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Sheet order volume decreased in the last week across regions as several buyers have recently placed forward orders and are now covered for deliveries. Prices remain stable at a high level because mills are well-booked and lead times are long. China is slowing down ahead of its New Year holiday next week. […]
By CRU Analyst Dave Thewlis, from CRU’s Steel Long Products Monitor U.S. long product prices continued to surge into the month of February due to ongoing market tightness and strong demand. Imports remain too costly to seriously consider for the majority of buyers, given high international steel prices coupled with costly shipping rates and tariffs. Rebar […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis Like the steel industry, the aluminum industry has long recognized the economic value of scrap. Every time virgin aluminum prices have risen, buyers have accelerated substitution of scrap for virgin metal. Now, economic sensibility has been married to the new focus on sustainability. Consumer-facing market segments are leading the […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Higher steel sheet prices continue to be assessed across most global markets. Reflecting this, CRU’s Global Flat Products Steel Price Indicator (CRUspi flats), has risen for the seventh consecutive month, reaching 238.2, its highest reading since September 2008. This indicator is now 56% […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Matthew Watkins, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Prices in Europe have surged higher once more over the past month, though the pace of weekly increases is showing signs of changing. Overall, our 2nd Wednesday price in February is much higher m/m for all sheet products across Europe. This continues what is […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Metallics Monitor The CRU metallics price indicator (CRUmpi) fell by 11.5% m/m in February to 309.8. Scrap prices in western markets came under pressure as supply increased substantially, while those in eastern markets faced additional pressure from waning demand. Although supply, especially obsolete grade scrap, has […]
By CRU Prices Analyst George Pearson, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor U.S. sheet prices have continued to increase, but this week is the lowest w/w rise since the uptrend started. In Europe, HR prices have fallen, albeit marginally, for the first time since October last year. Although we believe prices are at or near […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and CRU Research Director Lavan Mahadeva, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook Editor’s note: This article was originally published by the Financial Times on Feb. 19. The sharp rise in commodity prices from the depths of the COVID-19 lockdown is fueling talk of a commodities “supercycle” with the greening of the global economy replacing […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor After years in which inflation has been low in major economies, financial markets are becoming increasingly concerned about high future inflation. In this Special Feature, we examine a number of factors which could be inflationary over the […]
By CRU Analysis Advisor Greg Wittbecker Ford announced in February that it would be all electric in Europe by 2030. This comes on the heels of General Motors stopping production of internal combustion engines (ICE) by 2035. These decisions underscore the shifting landscape in key aluminum applications and use within automotive. Die-castings have always been […]
By CRU Economist Ippolito Tarabini and Multi-Commodity Analyst Zanna Aleksahhina, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor There is a global semiconductor shortage. It was ignited by strong demand for consumer electronics during the COVID-19 pandemic and it is now threatening auto production around the world. We expect it to reduce global vehicle output by around […]
By CRU Analysis Advisor Greg Wittbecker In January 2016, Bitcoin was trading at 450 to the U.S. dollar. Recent prices hit over 58,000 and are now trading around 48,000. There are investment advisors suggesting cryptocurrencies should be part of investors’ portfolios. It appears that Bitcoin and its imitators are going mainstream. While this fascination with […]
By CRU Prices Analyst George Pearson, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Chinese sheet prices reached a new high this week after a government policy notice on March 2 notifying of emissions production cuts in Tangshan province in late-February to late-March. We expect the impact of this announcement to be lower than the initial price rise suggests. In other regions, sheet prices globally have continued to rise, […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and CRU Economist Yingrui Wang On March 5, the Chinese government announced its macroeconomic targets for 2021 and beyond. It reaffirmed our broad view that China is keen to withdraw policy support gradually and deliver a steady economic slowdown over the next five years. What we learned is that […]
By CRU Advisor Greg Wittbecker Buyers of aluminum have been spoiled since the global financial crisis by persistent surpluses and relatively benign price action. That is changing. Inventories are Depleting and What Remains is in Strong Hands Global inventories expressed in days of global consumption stood at 78 days ending 2020. This compares to 114 […]
By CRU Analysis Advisor Greg Wittbecker Environmental, social and governance (ESG) is now core to most major corporations. Companies that don’t put strong emphasis on this do so at their peril. Many companies are using ESG as an opportunity to create competitive advantage. These advantages are coming through several approaches. Sustainable Production Sustainability can be […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis The grounding of the MV Ever Given in the Suez Canal has multiple repercussions on the global maritime supply chain, but it is especially acute for the aluminum market. Gulf Region Production is Important The Gulf Region in terms of aluminum production comprises Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis China has staked out ambitious goals to decarbonize its overall economy. President Xi has said that CO2 emissions will peak before 2030 and that China will be carbon neutral by 2060. The Macro-economic Perspective China generates 28% of global CO2 emissions. Its energy-related emissions are 15% of the world’s […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis U.S. Midwest primary aluminum expressed over LME cash is 26-27 cents per pound, touted at “record levels.” In October 2014, Midwest traded premiums reached 23 cents per pound, so on paper we have set a new high….or have we? 2014: the Era of the LME Warehouse Queues We don’t […]
By CRU Analyst Kevin Bai from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor China has announced that it will remove the value-added tax (VAT) rebate it has historically applied to steel exports, alongside changes in import and export tariffs. This will increase the cost of exporting and discourage export volumes, which will help loosen a tight domestic […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis The EU continues to move ahead on its plan to decrease greenhouse gases (GHGs). Here’s some historical context on emissions management in the EU. The EU has been on a long journey to its current condition. Phase 1 of its decarbonization plan took place between 2005-2017. The Emissions Trading […]
By CRU Principal Analyst James Campbell, from CRU’s Steel Long Products Monitor Global long product prices have increased to the highest level since 2008. Global supply has tightened due to production cuts and changes to export tax rebates in China. Demand is strong in many regions, but Covid-19 outbreaks and seasonal patterns mean some weakness […]
By Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor The CRU metallics price indicator (CRUmpi) increased by 8.3% m/m in May to 370.7. Following China’s removal of a VAT rebate for steel exports, scrap markets in Asia surged. This momentum carried over to Turkey, where scrap import prices rose substantially m/m, although upward […]