By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group Two weeks ago, I described how the aluminum industry would not run out of metal supply in 2022 despite the fears of some. Fast forward to today, and we now have the worst case scenario of the war in Ukraine likely leading to Russia being a pariah in the […]
Europe will suffer substantial economic consequences from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while the Russian economy will be hurt by the array of sanctions imposed by the West. But the United States should emerge relatively unscathed from the “economic mayhem” caused by Russia’s aggression in Eastern Europe, unless the war escalates dramatically, predict the experts at […]
I continue to watch what is happening in Europe, the Middle East and in Asia as it relates to the flow of steel-and steel-related commodities that normally come from Russia and the Ukraine. One of my experienced trading contacts was wondering if the Russians will begin flooding China with cheap steel. (Wouldn’t that be special?) […]
A lot has happened in the world since my last article. Please bear with me as there is much to talk about. First, my thoughts and prayers go out to the people of Ukraine, and for that matter the innocent people in Russia who want nothing to do with Putin’s war. The world order is […]
February marked month six of declining steel prices, following a 12-month streak of continuous price increases. Hot rolled prices declined $215 per ton throughout the month, with the SMU index averaging $1,020 per ton at the end of February (recall our HR average this week declined another $20 to $1,000 per ton). The SMU Price Momentum Indicator for sheet products was […]
The fog of war. That’s what we’re all dealing with now. Even in steel as realization grows that the war in Ukraine will have consequences here in North America too. The exact contours are still uncertain. We know that pig iron prices are up sharply, and that concerns about shortages are mounting – not just […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Matthew Watkins and Research Analyst Christopher Dix, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service, Feb. 28. Contributors Erik Hedborg, Dmitry Popov, Ryan McKinley and Clare Hanna. Following the escalation of the situation in Ukraine, we set out what positions Russia has currently in the export market through the steel value chain. In the short term […]
By CRU Multi Commodity Analyst Alex Christopher and Research Analyst James Mills, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor, March 3 The sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine will have direct and indirect implications for commodity markets, and their impact will be felt by everyone involved along the length of commodity value chains. […]
Evraz does not expect to be hit by sanctions aimed at Russian banks and political elites after the country’s invasion of Ukraine, company executives said. But the situation is changing quickly, and it’s too soon to draw any firm conclusions, they said. “We believe it (sanctions) will not have a significant effect on the company,” […]
If you look at Steel Market Update’s headlines from the past week, it’s not difficult to see a common thread. There’s change in the wind. Cleveland-Cliffs and Nucor both announced $50-per-ton increases in sheet prices. Scrap experts forecast substantial jumps in both prime and obsolete scrap prices in March. Prices for other steelmaking raw materials […]
By Trade Attorney Lewis Leibowitz Albert Einstein is reputed to have said that time is the “fourth dimension” because you cannot tell where you are except by knowing “when” you are. The onset of war in Europe is “when” we are right now. As I write, there is a battle for control of Kyiv. Because […]
By Matthew Abrams, Analyst, CRU Group Now that we have seen the first steps of an invasion into Ukraine by Russian forces, the business concerns shift to the possibility of sanctions and how severe they might be. While initially the aluminum market itself is not expected to be directly targeted, there are various potential and […]
U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at a 7% annualized rate in the fourth quarter as businesses stepped up their restocking of supplies, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) advanced estimate. This second review and upward revision to fourth-quarter GDP growth by the BEA reflected more business spending on nonresidential structures and investment […]
Editor’s note: SMU contributor Bryan Tice is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and the firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. Before joining Metal Edge Partners, Bryan held a variety of commercial […]
By CRU Multi Commodity Analyst Alex Christopher and Research Analyst James Mills, from CRU’s Steel Monitor, Feb. 17 The only certainty about the heightened state of East-West relations playing out over Ukraine is that the stakes are high. The gulf between Russian security concerns and guiding principles of NATO, the EU, and western liberalism are […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Erik Hedborg and Senior Coal Analyst Dmitry Popov, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor, Feb. 24 On Feb. 24, Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine as President Vladmir Putin ordered a large-scale “specialized military operation.” Russian troops entered Ukrainian territory – from Belarus in the north, the separatist-controlled regions in the […]
For those of you who don’t pay attention to such things, today’s date is 2/22/22…. On Monday, Cleveland-Cliffs announced on their website their intention of indefinitely idling the #4 blast furnace at Indiana Harbor, and a $50 per ton ($2.50/cwt) price increase on orders slated for production in April 2022. Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves spoke […]
The Port of Los Angeles reported its busiest January ever, and data from port operations suggests the backup of container ships off the coast may be easing. The port processed 865,595 Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) in January, a 3.6% increase compared to last year. It was the highest volume in the port’s 115-year history and […]
The Tampa Steel Conference has wrapped up, and I thank all of you who attended and who took the time to catch up with me on stage or along the sidelines. Below are five themes that I took away from the event. If I were to sum it up in a sentence, it’s this: Steel […]
Ferrous scrap has been described as “the new precious metal,” as mills all over the world invest in scrap-fed electric arc furnaces as a means of lowering harmful greenhouse gas emissions. Indeed, prime scrap may prove to be even more rare and prized than most realize. In the United States alone, producers will add 5.3 […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group We all read the same financial press. I am sure the readers share the feeling that it is always interesting when you hear experts opining about something in your chosen area of expertise. I was reminded of this when reading recent remarks from Jeff Currie, the widely respected and […]
U.S. apparent steel supply levels slipped 3% from November to December, down 286,000 net tons to 9.48 million net tons, according to the latest U.S. Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute data. Recall that September 2021 saw the highest monthly supply level in over six years, going back to January 2015 when supply surpassed 10 […]
2022 is shaping up to be a good year for energy tubulars. With the U.S. economy near pre-pandemic levels, demand is up for oil and gas – and the oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and line pipe needed to deliver them. Rising energy prices are spurring increased drilling, while declining steel prices are lowering the […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor, Feb. 9 The global sheet market often exhibits price trends that vary by region. Occasionally, prices do move in the same direction, though on these occasions, prices typically reflect a unified trend of global costs or inventory change. In the current sheet […]
By CRU Economist Veronika Akhmadieva and CRU Senior China Economist Henry Hao from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook, Feb. 14 The last day of 2021 marked the end of the two-year period during which China agreed to increase imports of certain goods and services from the U.S. by a combined $200 billion. These targets have been […]
Total mill shipments of steel products rebounded in December to 8.985 million tons, a 7.8% increase over November’s 8.334 million tons, and the highest monthly total for 2021. Apparent supply saw a 5.0% boost in December, rising for the second straight month following repeated decreases in September and October. This analysis is based on steel mill shipment […]
December U.S. steel exports fell 10% from the month prior to 654,000 net tons, according to the latest U.S. Department of Commerce data. While the last few months have seen declining export levels, the 12-month moving average through December is now at a 33-month high. December exports are up 6% compared to levels one year […]
North American auto assemblies expanded in January after falling to 2021’s second lowest monthly total in December. January’s production total was up 12.6% sequentially, but down 4.1% from the same month last year. Supply-chain and microchip limitations continue to impact the automotive sector despite broad production improvements across North American automakers. As a result, assembly […]
Were it not for persistently strong steel demand, the plunging steel prices would be an unmitigated disaster. About 70% of the service center and manufacturing execs responding to SMU’s survey a week ago described demand for their products as stable. Another 20% even said they see demand improving. Just 10% have registered declines in demand […]
By CRU Research Analyst Aaron Kearney-Keaveny, from CRU’s Iron Ore Market Outlook, Feb. 8 The iron ore price has been driven up over the last week, despite sparse activity during and after the Chinese holiday. The rise in price primarily came from traders who have been increasing their stocks in anticipation of higher prices, not […]