Steel Market Update saw a note from Bank of America Merrill Lynch metals and mining research group out of the UK regarding takeaways from their recent trip to China. In the note the group was skeptical of the push by the Chinese central government to remove another 80 million metric tons (88 million net tons) […]
September steel exports totaled 811,582 net tons (736,256 metric tons), down 1.8 percent over August and down 21.5 percent from September 2014. Total September figures are below both the thee month moving average (3MMA, average of July 2015 through September 2015 figures) and the twelve month moving average (12MMA, average of October 2014 through September […]
ArcelorMittal reported a $700 million loss for third quarter which it blamed on falling prices and dumping of steel by China. Third quarter EBITDA was $1.35 billion. “Operating conditions have deteriorated in recent months, both in terms of the international steel price environment which has been driven by unsustainably low export prices from China and […]
We have two data sources for this report. These are the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. Oanda is current every day but the Federal Reserve daily broad index (BI) is normally about eight days in arrears. As of November […]
Steel Market Update asked one of our Asian iron ore and steel trading sources to comment on the recent decline in iron ore prices which recently broke below $50/dmt on 62% Fe fines in China. We also asked for a comment about the recent spat of trade suits and the Chinese mills not cooperating with […]
Based on the most recent import license data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, October import licenses totaled 3,399,248 net tons. We anticipate when the final census numbers are released for the month of October total steel imports will be somewhere between 3.2 and 3.4 million tons (net tons not metric tons). Imports of […]
The American Iron and Steel Institute, the Steel Manufacturers Association, the Canadian Steel Producers Association, CANACERO (the Mexican steel association), Alacero (the Latin American steel association), EUROFER (the European steel association,) Instituto AcoBrasil (the Brazil Steel Institute), the Specialty Steel Industry of North American and the Committee on Pipe and Tube Imports today released a […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce announced Preliminary Determinations on countervailing duties (CVD) for corrosion resistant steels from Italy (affirmative), China (affirmative), India (affirmative) and Korea (affirmative). There was one country, Taiwan, which was found to not be subject to countervailing duties. You will notice that there are a number of steel mills/exporters that were hit […]
The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI indicated manufacturing is expanding at a slightly faster rate as the world enters fourth quarter. The October Global PMI registered at 51.4, up from 50.7. The UK led the rise in manufacturing with solid improvement in output and new orders. The U.S. took second place in manufacturing growth alongside […]
On October 23, 2015 attorneys for the domestic steel mills alleged that exports from Brazil, Australia, Japan and the Netherlands surged into the United States in an effort to “…avoid the imposition of antidumping and countervailing duties.” Much like the corrosion resistant case that preceded the hot rolled filing which was originally made in August […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q2 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Thursday. The annualized growth rate in the first estimate of the third quarter was 1.49 percent, down from 3.91 percent, in the third estimate of Q2. GDP is measured and reported in […]
On Friday, October 30, 2015, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced their Preliminary Determination that critical circumstances existed on corrosion resistant steels from certain mills in the Peoples Republic of China (China), South Korea (Korea), Italy and Taiwan. Critical circumstances were not found for any company from India and only ILVA was identified from Italy. […]
The following article is written by Spencer Johnson of FC Stone LLC. With six years of experience, Spencer provides his customers strategic and tactical advice on protecting themselves against commodity price volatility in the steel markets. Spencer will rotate weekly futures articles with Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC. Spencer can be reached at spencer.johnson@intlfcstone.com. […]
The following article is written by Spencer Johnson of FC Stone LLC. With six years of experience, Spencer provides his customers strategic and tactical advice on protecting themselves against commodity price volatility in the steel markets. Spencer will rotate weekly futures articles with Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC. Spencer can be reached at spencer.johnson@intlfcstone.com. […]
I am aware that on October 23, 2015 the domestic steel mills filed allegations of critical circumstances on exports of hot rolled coil from four countries: Brazil, Australia, Japan and The Netherlands. I will have more details and statements from both buyers and sellers later this week. I wanted to spend time studying the affirmative […]
Scrap prices were forecast a week ago to drop $10-$20 per gross ton in November. However, we are beginning to hear that the scrap markets may not be as dire as predicted and the numbers may be much closer to sideways than down once the negotiations are concluded next week. One of our scrap sources […]
Figure 1 shows historical gas and oil prices since January 2000. The daily spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $45.91 on October 17th, according to the latest daily figure available from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Brent closed at $47.51 on the same day. WTI was down from $46.67 in 30 days […]
New orders for manufactured durable goods fell 1.2 percent in September, following a decrease of 3.0 percent in August, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Manufactured goods have been pressured by a decrease in exports due to weak global economic conditions and a strong U.S. dollar that makes pricing for U.S. products less competitive. Transportation […]
Swedish steel company SSAB posted a loss of SEK 191 million ($22.4 million*) in third quarter. Earnings were down by SEK 600 million ($70.4 million) due to lower margins on heavy plate in North America, the costs of relining the blast furnace in Lulea, and negative currency effects. The company plans to cut approximately 500 […]
Nucor third quarter earnings exceeded analyst expectations with earnings per share of $0.71 compared to estimates of $0.49. Nucor posted net income of $227.1 million, up from $124.8 million in second quarter due to a larger than forecasted LIFO credit and improved performance in the steel segment. Consolidated net sales were $4.23 billion on shipments […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of September 2015, providing updated data on iron ore imports, scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in September were 86,120,000 metric tons, an increase of 16.2 percent from the previous month and an increase of 1.7 percent from […]
Shipping in the various transportation sectors is relatively subdued in October. Low freight rates for seaborne cargo continues to be a problem for carriers, according to the Oct. 15 MID-SHIP Report. Low volumes, weak worldwide economies, and a strong dollar are affecting rates for both bulk carriers and container lines. The Baltic Dry Index was […]
This report is a trial balloon and we ask your opinion as to whether such an analysis for the three major sheet products would be of interest. If so, we would go to the expense of purchasing data from the Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau, in the UK for the global trade of HR, CR […]
During our Steel Summit Conference in September, Lisa Reisman the founder and Executive Editor of Metal Miner told those in attendance that the short term outlook for commodities and steel was bearish. She provided a number of support and resistance price points on a number of steel products as well as aluminum and zinc. In […]
We have two data sources for this report: the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. Oanda is current every day but the Federal Reserve daily Broad Index (BI) is normally about eight days in arrears. As of October 15th the […]
For weeks SMU procrastinated about taking the time to attend this year’s METALCON exhibition in Tampa, Florida. We ended up flying to Tampa yesterday morning (Wednesday) for the opening of the show and then returning to our offices last night. With all of the uncertainty which has enveloped the flat rolled steel industry over the […]
Global steel demand will decrease by -1.7 percent to 1,513 million tonnes in 2015, according to the World Steel Association’s Short Range Outlook for 2015 and 2016. The 2015 decrease follows a gain of 0.7 percent in 2014, the same amount of growth that WSA expects to see again in 2016 as steel demand reaches […]
We include here an abridged statement from the IMF that was released last week and in which the commodity situation looms large. Followed by our Steel Market Update data analysis and comments about the future of global and domestic steel demand through 2020. Transcript of the World Economic Outlook Press Conference Good morning. I have […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
As we headed into October negotiations, the ferrous scrap dealers knew prices would be down anywhere from $20 to $50 per ton. As negotiations got into full swing it was apparent the lower end of the range was nowhere near $20 as prices quickly collapsed by $50 per gross ton. The issues have been the […]