For weeks SMU procrastinated about taking the time to attend this year’s METALCON exhibition in Tampa, Florida. We ended up flying to Tampa yesterday morning (Wednesday) for the opening of the show and then returning to our offices last night. With all of the uncertainty which has enveloped the flat rolled steel industry over the […]
Global steel demand will decrease by -1.7 percent to 1,513 million tonnes in 2015, according to the World Steel Association’s Short Range Outlook for 2015 and 2016. The 2015 decrease follows a gain of 0.7 percent in 2014, the same amount of growth that WSA expects to see again in 2016 as steel demand reaches […]
We include here an abridged statement from the IMF that was released last week and in which the commodity situation looms large. Followed by our Steel Market Update data analysis and comments about the future of global and domestic steel demand through 2020. Transcript of the World Economic Outlook Press Conference Good morning. I have […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
As we headed into October negotiations, the ferrous scrap dealers knew prices would be down anywhere from $20 to $50 per ton. As negotiations got into full swing it was apparent the lower end of the range was nowhere near $20 as prices quickly collapsed by $50 per gross ton. The issues have been the […]
The American Institute for International Steel attributes Canada’s struggling economy to the weak rise in U.S. steel exports. Canada buys about half of all of the steel that is shipped out of the U.S., according to AIIS. The August 2015 Steel Exports Press Release from AIIS follows: Falls Church, VA. October 8, 2015. Steel exports […]
In the first eight months of this year bulk scrap exports were 8.801,000 tonnes for an annual rate of 13,202,000 tonnes, down by 15.4 percent from the first eight months of last year. The tonnages shown in Figure 1 are based on three month moving averages for 2015 and on the twelve month monthly average […]
The 12 countries of the Trans-Pacific Partnership have finally reached accord on an agreement after more than five years of intensive negotiations, effectively creating the world’s largest free trade zone. US Trade Representative Michael Froman said in an announcement that the agreement will “support jobs, drive sustainable growth, foster inclusive development and promote innovation across […]
Global manufacturing has been trending flat to downward for most of 2015. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI continued that trend in September with a posting of 50.6 from 50.7 in August. The PMI was the lowest it has been since July and has averaged 50.8 for third quarter. Any reading over 50.0 is considered […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) sources reported the domestic steel mills have canceled any remaining ferrous scrap tonnage that was not delivered during the month of September. This is normal when the mills believe that they will be able to negotiate lower prices for October delivery. As reported earlier this week, the expectation is for scrap […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q2 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Friday. In the big picture, the change (delta, Δ) in GDP is equal to the change in population plus the change in productivity, that is Δ GDP = Δ Population + Δ […]
Ferrous scrap prices continue to weaken due to sluggish demand at the domestic steel mills coupled with a lack of exports off the East Coast USA to Turkey. Turkish scrap prices have tumbled over the past thirty days, down $46 per ton or nearly 20 percent compared to last month. An 80/20 HMS mix is […]
The following press release came out late this afternoon and we caught it early this evening. The announcement is about the hot rolled trade cases and whether the US International Trade Commission (ITC) found enough evidence to determine that the probability exists that the U.S. steel industry was “materially damaged” by hot rolled exports from […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
The following article is written by Spencer Johnson of FC Stone LLC. With six years of experience, Spencer provides his customers strategic and tactical advice on protecting themselves against commodity price volatility in the steel markets. Spencer will rotate weekly futures articles with Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC. Spencer can be reached at spencer.johnson@intlfcstone.com. […]
Net imports equals imports minus exports. We regard this as an important look at the overall trade picture and its effect on demand at the mill level. Figure 1 shows that net sheet product imports on a three month moving average, (3MMA) basis at 718,000 tons in July continue to be more than double that […]
In the first seven months of this year bulk scrap exports were 7,809,000 tonnes for an annual rate of 13,387,000 tonnes, down by 11.6 percent from the first seven months of last year. The tonnages shown in Figure 1 are based on three month moving averages for 2015 and on the twelve month monthly average […]
SMU is seeing ferrous scrap prices in the Chicago area trading down $10-$15 per gross ton with HMS at $200-$210 per gross ton, shredded at $230-$235 per gross ton and busheling at $240-$245 per gross ton. We received a note from one of our main ferrous scrap sources late last week that we thought would […]
The following article on the futures markets was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and our instructor for our Managing Price Risk I and Managing Price Risk II workshops. Andre attended the SMU Steel Summit Conference on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week in Atlanta. Here are his comments about both the […]
Trade discussion at the 2015 SMU Steel Summit Conference brought a number of conflicting views. Well before the Trade Panel began their formal presentations on Tuesday, attendees at the conference heard a number of comments on imports, steel overcapacity and whether the trade cases that have been initiated will help or hurt the US steel […]
The article below is normally reserved for our Premium members, we felt it would be good to share with our Executive members also. We have two data sources for this report. These are the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of July 2015, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in July were 86,100,000 metric tons, an increase of 14.9 percent from the previous month and an increase of 4.3 percent […]
According to the latest data released from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute, apparent steel supply for the month of June 2015 was 9,373,498 net tons. Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic steel shipments and finished US steel imports and subtracting total US steel exports. June supply […]
Net imports equals imports minus exports. We regard this as an important look at the overall trade picture and its effect on demand at the mill level. Figure 1 shows that net sheet product imports on a three month moving average (3MMA) basis in June continue to be more than double that which existed before […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
The flat rolled steel trading community has been hit and hit hard by the filing of antidumping trade suits on galvanized, Galvalume (zinc-aluminum) . As one trader put it to us earlier this week, “Business as usual has been blown up for the traders.” A number of traders spoke to SMU about the scope of […]
We have two data sources for this report. These are the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. Oanda is current every day but the Federal Reserve daily broad index (BI) is normally about eight days in arrears. As of August […]
China made a surprise devaluation of its currency today to bolster its faltering economy. The 2 percent devaluation of the yuan will make imports to China more expensive but will make exports more attractive to international traders. The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) issued a statement today concerning today’s currency move by the Chinese […]
In the first six months of this year bulk scrap exports were 6,893,000 metric tonnes for an annual rate of 13,786,000 tonnes, down by 9.1 percent from the first six months of last year. The tonnages shown in Figure 1 are based on three month moving averages for 2015 and on the twelve month monthly […]
The first thing we need to talk about is the rumor that we have heard from multiple sources that there will be a trade case announced on hot rolled coil this week. Our sources are telling us the information is a couple of weeks old and may change but the date being suggested in August […]