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    Hot Rolled Futures: Showing Limited Upside

    Written by Spencer Johnson


    The following article is written by Spencer Johnson of FC Stone LLC. With six years of experience, Spencer provides his customers strategic and tactical advice on protecting themselves against commodity price volatility in the steel markets. Spencer will rotate weekly futures articles with Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC. Spencer can be reached at spencer.johnson@intlfcstone.com.

    Sometimes when we offer articles for this publication we worry that they may strike some readers as overly pessimistic or bearish in their outlook. Our first reply to this is that the market DOES remain in a contango, even if that contango appears to be decaying rather rapidly. Upside is expected, its just that the amount of it has been dwindling along with the spot price.

    Spencer Johnson

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    Plate supply squeeze tightens as demand presses higher

    The domestic plate market is showing few signs of relief for steel buyers. Lead times are stretching well beyond seasonal norms, spot availability has all but evaporated, and mills are drawing hard lines on contract volumes heading into 2027 negotiations. And the supply squeeze will likely intensify in a market that some industry sources say is structurally undersupplied because of stringent US trade and tariff policies. Imports have been arriving in larger volumes, and the expectation is they will continue to tick higher into 2027. The big question is whether those foreign tons will arrive in volumes sufficient to provide the relief steel consumers want.