New orders for durable goods in August declined by 2.0 percent month on month to $236.322 billion. This result was in line with analyst’s expectations and was a result of a decline in transportation orders, mainly civil aircraft. Orders excluding transportation were unchanged. The three month moving average (3MMA) rose by 1.3 percent. The 3MMA […]
The following press release came out late this afternoon and we caught it early this evening. The announcement is about the hot rolled trade cases and whether the US International Trade Commission (ITC) found enough evidence to determine that the probability exists that the U.S. steel industry was “materially damaged” by hot rolled exports from […]
Steel Market Update participates in a monthly steel conference call with HARDI wholesalers who supply galvanized sheet and coil products to the HVAC mechanical contractors across the United States and Canada. The wholesalers also supply other products such as air conditioners, furnaces and many other products to companies working on residential, multi-family and commercial construction […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released new foreign steel import license data this afternoon that suggests imports for the month of September may not be below 3.0 million tons after all. At this moment, using data through today and projecting the rate to remain the same for the balance of the month, September would come […]
We finally got our Flat Rolled Steel Service Center Apparent Excess/Deficit Inventory forecast model back on track. As we mentioned last month, SMU had been operating under a much more optimistic frame of mind and this past month we pulled back on our expectations and by doing so we came very close to nailing both […]
As readers are well aware, the Fed announcement on the 17th was a nonevent as far as interest rates are concerned. This morning as we examined the currency values of the sixteen steel trading nations that we track, it was evident that traders anticipated this lack of action around the 10th to the 13th and […]
Steel Dynamics Inc. anticipates improved profitability in third quarter from modestly increased margins that were offset by slightly lower shipments. Earnings will be higher than second quarter which was impacted by the closing of the Minnesota Iron operations and a planned maintenance outage at Iron Dynamics. SDI expects overall average product pricing to be flat […]
Demand (or the lack thereof) seems to be the real culprit affecting the steel market and prices at this moment. I spoke with one of the larger service centers this afternoon and asked: would imports be reduced enough to impact U.S. supply and trigger a price spike? I asked what were the chances that the […]
AK Steel expects shipments to increase by 3 percent in third quarter to approximately 1.86 million tons primarily on the strength of auto market shipments. In its third quarter guidance, the company said it anticipates an average selling price of $910 per ton, down 2 percent from Q2 due to lower carbon steel spot pricing […]
Freight rates for seaborne cargo continue to remain low said MID-SHIP in their Sept. 16 report. Trade has fallen due to weak global economies and the downturn in China, triggering lower commodity prices and freight rates. Oversupply of vessels eased over the summer as many were scrapped and new orders decreased. The respite was short […]
Nucor guidance for third quarter 2015 beat analyst estimates. Results are expected to be in the range of $0.45 to $0.50 per diluted share, up from $0.39 in second quarter but a decrease from 2014 Q3 earnings of $0.76 per diluted share. Nucor said margins have benefited from lower inventory costs in third quarter. The […]
It appears that very slowly steel buyers are slowly starting to come to a realization that there may be a lockout at US Steel and possibly ArcelorMittal as well. As many of you know, these two mills are not huge players in the spot markets so the immediate impact may be slightly muted should one […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released the latest license data for the month of September through the 15th of September late this afternoon. For the first time in many months we are seeing a large change in the license requests at this point in the month. Earlier this month it appeared that licenses were trending […]
An investigation into dumping and subsidizing of hot rolled steel plate imports from India and Russia was been initiated by the Canadian International Trade Tribunal on Sept. 9. The investigation follows a preliminary determination of dumping and subsidization from the Director General of the Trade and Anti-dumping Programs Directorate at the Canada Border Services Agency […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
SMU has been canvassing secondary flat rolled steel service centers and brokers around the United States to see how the secondary markets are faring in the current market conditions. We had an extended conversation with a Chicago based distributor who told us that the current market is all about “staying power.” What this executive meant […]
US steel pipe makers were surprised by a Sept. 2 US Court of International Trade decision calling for a reconsideration of profit calculations on imports of OCTG steel pipes from South Korea. South Korean producers complained that the duties set were too high and that proper procedures were not followed when determining duties. The Dept. […]
As expected, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) has made a preliminary determination that cold-rolled steel produced in seven foreign countries (Brazil, China, India, Japan, Russia, South Korea and UK) is causing or threatening to cause injury to the domestic steel industry. The Netherlands, which was also named in the antidumping suit, was dropped from […]
Figure 1 shows historical gas and oil prices since January 2000. The daily spot price of West Texas Intermediate closed at $45.92 on September 8th after recovering to $59.53 on June 15th. In the last 10 days WTI has declined by $3.28 according to the latest daily figure available from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). […]
Net imports equals imports minus exports. We regard this as an important look at the overall trade picture and its effect on demand at the mill level. Figure 1 shows that net sheet product imports on a three month moving average, (3MMA) basis at 718,000 tons in July continue to be more than double that […]
In the first seven months of this year bulk scrap exports were 7,809,000 tonnes for an annual rate of 13,387,000 tonnes, down by 11.6 percent from the first seven months of last year. The tonnages shown in Figure 1 are based on three month moving averages for 2015 and on the twelve month monthly average […]
Manufacturing expanded at its slowest pace in two years, according to August data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). On the domestic front, consumer spending remains strong bolstered by low gas prices and job growth but manufacturing for export has suffered from ailing global economies and the strength of the US dollar. The export […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce (US DOC) released final July Census Data which means they have announced the final steel import numbers for the month. Total steel imports for the month of July 2015 were 3,285,600 net tons (SMU converts the USDOC metric ton data into net tons for our readers). The July totals were […]
This data is normally reserved for our Premium members, but we wanted to give our Executive readers a view of what a Premium subscription includes. This is one of many additional data points available to our Premium level members. Licensed data for August was updated on September 4th through the Steel Import Monitoring System of […]
Trade discussion at the 2015 SMU Steel Summit Conference brought a number of conflicting views. Well before the Trade Panel began their formal presentations on Tuesday, attendees at the conference heard a number of comments on imports, steel overcapacity and whether the trade cases that have been initiated will help or hurt the US steel […]
The U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) today determined that there is a reasonable indication that a U.S. industry is materially injured by reason of imports of heavy walled rectangular welded carbon steel pipes and tubes from Korea, Mexico, and Turkey that are allegedly sold in the United States at less than fair value and allegedly […]
For those interested in more information on the HRC trade case, the following is a reprint of the International Trade Administration Fact Sheet on the AD/CVD investigation into imports of hot rolled steel flat products from seven countries. The US DOC did decide earlier this week to allow the HRC case to move forward. ITA […]
Earlier today the U. S. Department of Commerce released the latest license data through the 1st of September. Based on license data August total steel imports will be 3.0 million net tons. If confirmed when the Final Census data is released August will be the lowest tonnage so far this year. When looking at flat […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
Our Steel Buyers Sentiment Index dropped for the second month in a row, however, our 3-month-moving-average rose slightly. Our Sentiment Index has been trailing what we reported during 2014 as business growth has been tempered this year versus last. Flat rolled steel prices dropped slightly from the end of last month through the end of […]