Flat rolled prices took a bit of a breather this week as buyers and sellers evaluate what will happen next. The expectation is for prices to continue to move higher from here. But, maybe with the potential for a pull back in scrap coming next month, and with the amount of the increases we have […]
“U.S. Steel Sinks as Another Wave of Cheap Imports Predicted” was the headline in Bloomberg on Friday morning. The article cites Axiom Capital Research analyst Gordon Johnson who wrote to his clients, “A boat load of imports are likely on the way.” This opinion permeates the financial community and the pessimism is, in our opinion, […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), and financial futures markets was written by Dave Feldstein. As Flack Steel’s director of risk management, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market and we believe he will provide insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. […]
Good evening (or Good Morning depending on when you read our newsletter) from Chicago. The mood is upbeat by most attending the Boy Scout Dinner due to the rising steel prices which have helped service centers and steel mills get healthier. A couple of secondary steel service centers told me that their business has also […]
We hope the contract customers are paying attention to what is going on in the flat rolled steel spot markets. When the adjustment comes at the end of this quarter there will be some very shocked purchasing people. Spot flat rolled steel prices rose again this week by large double digits. Over the past two […]
Last week SMU asked those responding to our flat rolled steel market trends questionnaire about when they expected a break in the current flat rolled steel pricing cycle and for prices to begin heading lower. There was no consensus as 50 percent of those responding felt the change would occur prior to the 4th Quarter […]
Ryerson Holding Corporation reported net income of $13.5 million for the first quarter of 2016, compared to a loss of $2.5 million for the first quarter of 2015. Revenues were $702.6 million for the first quarter of 2016, down 19.1 percent from the year-ago period due to a 19.4 percent decline in the average selling […]
Domestic mill lead times: the amount of time it takes to receive flat rolled steel on an order placed this week, continue to be extended and are averaging at least one week longer than one year ago according to those participating in this week’s SMU flat rolled market trends analysis. Earlier this week we began […]
Steel Market Update asks our flat rolled steel market trends analysis participants to comment on the status of negotiations between their company and their steel mill suppliers. We want to know how stringent are the mills being when it comes to collecting the announced or original quoted steel price and are they able to collect […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how he saw trading over the past week: For those of you who don’t know, it’s Cinco De Mayo! So I say “Hay Caramba”. If you want to […]
In case there is some confusion, flat rolled steel prices are moving higher and, with today’s announcement by ArcelorMittal it is only a matter of time before benchmark hot rolled breaches $600 per ton and cold rolled and coated breach $800 per ton (base plus extras). It has been a very difficult market to gauge […]
Flat Rolled Steel Service Centers Comment About Their Relationship Customers Late last week Steel Market Update started canvassing flat rolled steel distributors about their customer base in an effort to better understand the psyche of their customers. We found there are essentially three camps buying from the domestic steel service centers: 1) Contract customers tied […]
Two Federal Reserve manufacturing indexes came out this week: the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey and the Richmond Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing. Both surveys show manufacturing continuing to expand in April. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey Manufacturers in Texas saw production output pick up slightly in April. The new orders index rebounded into positive territory at […]
What makes indexing flat rolled steel prices so difficult right now is you have steel mills quoting lead times that may be in May, June or even July for the same product. A hot rolled order placed on SDI last week is actually being produced at the same time as one placed on AK Steel […]
This evening I was talking with a large steel buyer about the fundamentals of the steel market and how long can prices continue to go higher. I told him that I had spoken with another large steel buyer earlier today who told me they could not understand how the fundamentals have changed in China. They […]
According to our latest flat rolled steel market survey which was conducted last week, steel mill lead times have continued to move out on every single one of the flat rolled products. The extended mill lead times are one of the primary reasons behind the increases in flat rolled steel prices, pressure on deliveries, allocations […]
The graphic used in this article visually tells the story. Flat rolled steel prices have become much less negotiable according to those taking our flat rolled steel market trends survey this past week. Lead times are extended and steel mills are using the words “allocation” and “controlled order entry” to their advantage. The net result […]
Steel Dynamics announced a strong quarter with net income of $63 million on net sales of $1.7 billion for first quarter 2016. Steel operating income increased 104 percent to $136 million from fourth quarter due to a 17 percent improvement in shipments which totaled 2.12 million tons. Average steel selling price dropped $40 from Q4 […]
In order for prices to reverse course, service center inventories will need to grow which would ultimately slow mill order books and relax lead times. The service centers we spoke with today were almost unanimous in their opinion that now is not a good time (or any easy time) to build inventories. However, there were […]
Steel prices continued to rise over the past week. A number of buyers are reporting mills as being on allocation (or not open at this time) which is keeping prices very close to the announced levels made over the past two weeks. In some cases, buyers are reporting mills as asking for premiums above the […]
Total steel and flat rolled inventories declined during the month of March according to just released data provided by the Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI). U.S. steel service centers shipped a total of 3,333,300 tons of steel products during the month of March. Based on a 23 shipping days this equates to a 144,900 tons […]
One of the issues confusing the sheet (flat rolled steel) marketplace is the Raw Steel Production report produced by the American Iron & Steel Institute (AISI). This report is produced on a weekly and then again on a monthly basis. The weekly report is released every Monday afternoon and Steel Market Update publishes the data […]
On Friday, US Steel announced a $60 per ton flat rolled steel price increase. This was the first US Steel announcement done in public in some time. The increase came in the form of a letter emailed to their customers. U.S. Steel did not provide minimum base price guidelines in their announcement although minimum price […]
This was one of the most difficult weeks to analyze flat rolled steel prices due to a number of factors. There were some “deals” available a few days ago (but after last Tuesday when we last indexed pricing) that no longer exist. How much weight do we give those deals? There are a number of […]
Is Now the Time to Panic as Steel Mills Control Their Order Books? The flat rolled steel markets continue to march to their own drummer. Lead times are extending, spot flat rolled steel prices are rising and many of the mills are not opening their order books for spot business. There are a number of […]
Steel buyers were pulling out their hair earlier today due to the number of mills holding tons off the market as they try to determine what the new pricing should be on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume products. As of early this afternoon (Thursday) steel buyers were informing Steel Market Update of a […]
Steel mill lead times on all four flat rolled products have become more extended, according to those who responded to our most recent flat rolled steel market analysis. As lead times extend, steel buyers have to place more orders in order to protect their inventories. The more orders placed, the better chance for the domestic […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel reported to Steel Market Update this past week that the domestic steel mills are less willing to negotiate steel prices. We believe this is due to strengthening order books, extending lead times, positive Sentiment and improving demand. In fact, we were learning throughout the day today that many […]
We have received a number of calls from sellers of steel asking for our help in trying to explain, from an independent source, why flat rolled steel prices are moving higher and why we expect this trend to continue. When looking at the history of Steel Market Update, our steel market intelligence publication was actually […]
With lead times extended and supply constrained any surprise outages, or the rumor of an outage, could have a dramatic impact on an already spooked flat rolled market. On Sunday, US Steel suffered a short term unexpected outage on their largest blast furnace, #14 at Gary Works. The two day outage is projected to have […]