The Steel Market Update (SMU) Service Center Inventories Apparent Excess/Deficit forecast provided last month showed that the deficit in inventories being held by flat rolled distributors would shrink. We have worked with the MSCI carbon flat rolled shipment and inventory data and our model indicates the deficit did indeed shrink and is very close to […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) has been expanding our analysis of flat rolled steel service center inventories in an effort to provide a second opinion on this key subject for both buyers and sellers. We continue to review inventory levels through the use of our flat rolled steel market trends questionnaire that we distribute twice per […]
Despite getting pressure to adjust our SMU Price Momentum Indicator due to uncertainty associated with the Section 232 investigation and the lack of a recommendation to date, along with small signs of a need by one or two steel mills for orders on galvanized, SMU is continuing to reference flat rolled steel prices as moving […]
As a monthly average, prices on all flat rolled steel products recovered in July following a dip in June. The month of July ended with SMU’s Price Momentum Indicator continuing to point higher as the market waits to see if and when the Trump administration will act on Section 232 trade measures that could further […]
I had to smile on Friday when Brett in my office forwarded an email to me from one of the steel mills. Here is part of what this mill executive had to say: “I occasionally write to John just to vent. It doesn’t help him, but it makes me feel better. Section 232 is the […]
Last week, the MSCI reported carbon flat rolled inventories as being 1.9 months of supply as of the end of June 2017. Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted a detailed analysis of steel service center inventories last week via our survey and our results had flat rolled inventories as averaging 2.3 months. The data provided in […]
Boy, am I receiving mixed messages – more than I think I ever have before during my 40 year plus career in (or covering) the industry. My opinion is the mixed messages are due to the interference in “normal” market operations by the Trump administration. This is especially destructive when promises are made for Section […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel HR futures prices have moved $12-$27/ST higher on very light trading volumes this past week. In spite of the higher HR […]
Nucor CEO John Ferriola said that in the current challenging environment, he is encouraged by second-quarter results, but not satisfied. Illegally traded imports continue to be a problem in the United States for Nucor and the domestic steel industry, Ferriola said during the company’s second-quarter conference call. He cited a 15 percent year-over-year increase in […]
Like the rest of the steel market, wholesalers of galvanized steel and other products used in HVAC applications are stuck in an uncomfortable wait-and-see mode as the Section 232 drama plays out in Washington. In the monthly steel conference call hosted today by the Heating, Air-conditioning, and Refrigeration Distributors International, HARDI members reported anxiety over […]
The Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI) will release its service center inventories and shipment data next week. As we prepare to review their data, we thought our readers would be interested in what we collected about flat rolled steel inventories at distributors during our flat rolled steel market trends analysis last week. Flat rolled steel […]
We ended the month of June with a change in our Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral (we had moved from lower to Neutral earlier in the month) to Higher. With the expectation of Section 232 being implemented by President Trump, we feel prices have only one way to go, up. How long that will last […]
Steel mill flat rolled lead times, which have generally trended downward this spring, my be showing early signs of lengthening, reflecting new strength in demand for domestic steel products. Mills were successful in collecting a price increase earlier in the month. Despite SMU data that shows service center inventories at “comfortable” levels, some distributors may […]
Last month Steel Market Update forecast steel shipments of carbon flat rolled would total 2,322,000 tons and, according to the MSCI data released last week, shipments were 3,319,000 tons. We missed the number by 3,000 tons… Our forecast called for flat rolled inventories to total 4,344,000 tons at the end of May. We were off […]
We are hearing reports from steel mills that their lead times have moved out and they have been able to collect some, if not most, of the $30 per ton price increase announced at the beginning of the month. Steel Market Update (SMU) is concerned as our research data is suggesting that service centers are […]
About 65 percent of respondents to SMU’s June 5 Steel Buyers Sentiment Index questionnaire predict steel mills will not be able to collect the full $30 per ton flat rolled steel price increase announced last week, while just 35 percent believe the hike will stick. Nearly two out of three respondents, mostly service centers and […]
Flat rolled steel distributors are reporting to Steel Market Update (SMU) that their inventories are balanced to slightly over-stocked and there is minimal need to build carbon sheet inventories from here. At the end of March the MSCI reported flat rolled steel inventories at 1.82 month’s supply. Last week the MSCI reported end of April […]
A number of the Steel Market Update prognostications for service center inventories and shipments came true (well, almost). We forecast daily shipments would rise on a tons per day basis to 108,400 tons per day. In actuality they rose to 111,100 tons per day. Since April 2017 only had 19 shipping days (according to MSCI) […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) has been struggling to make sense of the most recent carbon flat rolled inventory numbers for service centers. What we learned from the MSCI did not match the conversations we were having with service center steel buyers across the country. SMU has been working on ways to provide a separate and […]
Ryerson Holding Corporation, a distributor and value-added processor of industrial metals, reported net income of $14.8 million in first quarter 2017 on revenue of $814.5 million. Increased shipment volume combined with higher selling prices led to strong results for the quarter. Total tons shipped were 497,000 compared to 440,000 tons in first quarter and 478,000 […]
The month of April began with SMU Price Momentum Indicator pointing toward higher prices and by the second week of the month we had moved our Indicator to Neutral which is where it is now as the month ends. Our 3MMA for the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index appears to be peaking at +74. The […]
The following service center inventories data is based on the assumption that the MSCI data as presented is accurate on carbon flat rolled. From the MSCI data we apply a proprietary formula/model from which we can determine if flat rolled distributors are in an over-inventoried (excess) or under-inventories (deficit) situation. The importance of understanding the […]
Steel Market Update participates in a monthly steel conference call hosted by HARDI (Heating, Air-conditioning, and Refrigeration Distributors International) for their members. The HARDI conference call is dedicated to a better understanding of the galvanized steel market. The participants are wholesalers, service centers and manufacturing companies who either buy or sell galvanized sheet products used […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) is providing two articles on the MSCI (Metal Service Center Institute) data for March 2017 for United States steel distributors in tonight’s newsletter. The first article is our normal analysis and the second article is a deeper dive analysis normally provided to our Premium level readers. Publisher, John Packard, also provides […]
We managed to squeeze in an extra day off for our crew due to the Easter Holiday. So, if you were looking for a newsletter on Sunday evening – sorry, we skipped a day. But, we are making up for it today with an issue that if you printed it you could use as a […]
Based on the most recent MSCI data, carbon flat rolled service centers in the United States shipped 2,103,000 tons of sheet products. Our SMU Service Center Apparent Excess/Deficit forecast had called for shipments to be 2,191,000 tons. So, we missed our forecast by 88,000 tons. Our original forecast called for 4,551,000 tons of flat rolled […]
Steel service centers in the United States have seen inventories reach a bottom after years of decline and appear to be slowly bouncing back (see graphic below). This appears to be true for all steel products combined as well as flat rolled, plate, and pipe & tube segments. During the month of February 2017, U.S. […]
As the month of February comes to a close our SMU Price Momentum Indicator reverted to “Higher” from “Neutral.” However, we should be aware that the vast majority of the month saw our Price Momentum Indicator at “Neutral.” The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index continued to show strength both as single data points as well […]
Late last week the MSCI released their service center shipment and inventories data. Steel Market Update (SMU) provides detailed articles to both our Executive and Premium members about the MSCI data. One of the special articles we do for Premium only customers is our Service Center Flat Rolled Inventories Apparent Excess/Deficit model. This is a […]
A large flat rolled steel service center shot me a note late on Friday advising a steel mill had told them earlier in the day to expect a $40 per ton price increase as soon as Monday of this week. At the same time the customer was told if scrap prices in March increase by […]