The U.S. Department of Commerce released license data through Tuesday, April 15th for imported steel scheduled to arrive into the United States during the month of April. Based on this early license data (knowing it can be misleading) we are projecting total steel imports will exceed the 3.5 million net tons forecast for March. Our forecast for April is currently calling for imports to reach 3.8 million tons.
The areas which are currently suggesting increasing imports are: OCTG (oil country tubular goods), hot rolled and cold rolled. Galvalume imports are also forecast to be quite high from a recent historical perspective.
Below are the various forecasts Steel Market Update made for the month of March based on license data. The next step will be for the release of Preliminary Census data which will provide a more accurate number for the month of March.
John PackardRead more from John Packard
Latest in Steel Products Prices North America
BREAKING NEWS: Nucor Maintains Plate Prices
Nucor Corp. will keep plate prices unchanged with the opening of its November order book.
Most Mills Still Willing To Negotiate Lower Sheet and Plate Prices: SMU Survey
The overall steel mill negotiation rate remained level this week vs. two weeks earlier, but plate’s rate fell by 15 percentage points, according to SMU’s most recent survey data.
SMU Price Ranges: Sheet Declines Moderate – Meaning or Noise?
Hot-rolled coil prices were down again this week, continuing a streak of week-over-week (WoW) declines that began in early/mid-July.
SMU Price Ranges: Sheet Slips Again on Strike, But Is a Bottom in Sight?
Sheet prices slipped again this week on news of the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike and continued caution among some consumers.
HRC vs. Galv Price Spread Widened This Summer
The spread between hot-rolled coil (HRC) and galvanized sheet base prices widened throughout the summer as hot rolled prices declined faster than those of galvanized.