Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
July 18, 2014
In the last issue of Steel Market Update I warned that there are lots of rumors swamping the steel market as negotiations for Severstal NA heat up (or are perhaps already over) and Gallatin entertains bids on their mill (half owned by Gerdau and half ArcelorMittal). The other mill issue is the Chapter 15 (Canadian equivalent of Chapter 11) filing by Essar Steel Algoma. Consolidation is upon us and will be one of the topics which we will need to discuss during our Steel Summit Conference in September.
Speaking of our Steel Summit Conference and speakers – I don’t know how many of you had a chance to see metals and mining analyst, Timna Tanners of Bank of America Merrill Lynch on Fox Business News last week. If you missed it here is a link to her comments and optimism regarding the steel industry in the U.S. At the left is a photo taken of her off the TV screen.
Timna Tanners and John Anton of IHS Global Insight will be featured speakers discussing the changes occurring in with the steel industry and they will forecast benchmark steel prices for 2015 and beyond. This year will be the 4th time they have spoken together at one of our conferences. As we have found out on previous occasions they do not necessarily agree on their forecasts. This year we will give them a chance to ask each other questions as well as present to our attendees.
The next week or two are looking like they will be quite interesting. We may start to get some clarity regarding the Severstal Deaborn and Columbus plants. We may also get some action (or not) on the rumored trade case on cold rolled and potentially coated flat rolled products.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
Where do you want to be the first week of September?
John Packard
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Final thoughts
SMU had the pleasure of attending the American Iron and Steel Institute's (AISI's) annual general meeting in Washington this week. It was a slow week in our nation's capital, so we were able to take a leisurely stroll around the National Mall and take in the sights. Just kidding. In fact, the meeting coincided with significant trade actions announced by the Biden administration. It included, among other things, additional tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum.
Final thoughts
Our spot price is little changed this week after moving sharply lower last week on the heels of Nucor’s unexpected price cut. Here’s one thought on that trend: Nucor's weekly HR price (aka, its “Consumer Spot Price” or CSP) has to date functioned almost more like a monthly price.
Final thoughts
What's the tea in the steel industry this week? Here's the latest SMU gossip column! Just kidding... kind of. Yes, some of the comments we receive in our weekly flat-rolled market steel buyers' survey are honestly too much to put into print. Some make us laugh. Some make us cringe. Some are cryptic. Most are serious. We appreciate them all. Below are some highlights from our survey results this week. Some of the comments that we can share with you are also included, in italics, in the buyers' own words, with minimal editing on our part.
Final thoughts
Last week we wrote about a brief lull in price movement, labeling it a period of wait and see. It did, in fact, turn out to be pretty brief. This week... things are little bit different. Perhaps right now we are more in a period of "hope and pray" or "Here we go, hold on to your hats."
Final thoughts
Unless you've been under a rock, you know by know that Nucor's published HR price for this week is $760 per short ton, down $65/st from the company’s $825/st a week ago. I could use more colorful words. But I think it’s safe to say that most of the market was not expecting this. For starters, US sheet mills never announce price decreases. (OK, not never. It has come to my attention that Severstal North America rescinded a price increase back on Feb. 14, 2012. And it caused quite the ruckus.)