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    Analysis

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard


    Have I mentioned lately that our next Steel 101 workshop will be held in the Chicago area and will include a tour of the NLMK Indiana mini-mill? Details are on our website or you are welcome to contact our offices at: 800-432-3475 or info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. We believe this will be another excellent program as we bring together our instructors from around the country: John Eckstein (metallurgist/flat products), Peter Wright (metallurgist/Marketing Expert/long products), Mario Briccetti (engineer/flat rolled/stainless OEM purchasing), Steve Painter (mill flat rolled/plate/tin plate mill sales) & myself (John Packard: service center/trading company/mill sales). Combined we are close to 200 years of active steel experience. Registration is now open and the class is beginning to fill.

    Steel Market Update is forecasting a continuation of the service center inventory “Apparent Excess” at the end of February and March. However, the total flat rolled being held is falling which will affect lead times and pricing. We sent out a Premium newsletter on Friday with a detailed reports on MSCI inventory levels and our shipping, inventory and HRC price forecast out through June 2015. If you are an Executive level member and would like to upgrade your account to Premium, please contact our office at: 800-432-3475 or by email: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. We can provide details and what the up-charge would be to upgrade. As with all SMU products, the first year has a guarantee. If you upgrade and then chose to move back to an Executive level membership we will refund the amount paid for that upgrade at any point during the first 12 months of your Premium membership.

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    US heating and cooling shipments fall for third straight month

    US shipments of heating and cooling equipment slipped in September for a third consecutive month, according to the latest data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Shipments declined 2.6% month on month (m/m) in September, after having fallen 10% m/m in August. The monthly pace marks the third-slowest shipment rate year to date. Historically, shipments are strongest in early summer and weakest around the turn of the year, driven by seasonal air conditioner and heat pump volumes. AHRI's data shows September shipments totaled 1,687,240 units, down 2.6% m/m but up 7.7% year over year (y/y) (Figure 1, left). From August to September, shipments of warm air furnaces, A/C, and heat pumps declined, while water heater shipments rose. Compared with a year earlier, only air conditioners and heat pump shipments were higher.