SMU Data and Models

SMU Price Momentum Indicator Moved to Higher from Neutral
Written by John Packard
July 2, 2017
With the threat of a Section 232 decision in favor of the domestic steel mills looming over the market, Steel Market Update (SMU) has decided to take our Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral to Higher. It is our opinion conditions are in place to push flat rolled steel prices even higher from their current levels. SMU expects steel prices to rise over the next 30 to 60 days.
The steel mills continue to be able to manipulate supply both out of the steel mills (closure of furnaces at Ashland and Granite City and the shutdown of the furnace at Fairfield) as well as from foreign steel sources through AD/CVD trades suits and now Section 232. A favorable ruling on Section 232 could create a shortage of foreign steel, some of which is needed to service business in the U.S. where the products are either in short supply or priced out of the world market.

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models

Service centers: Mill orders recover in June
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) rebounded in June after declining for three straight months. The gain complemented a modest boost in service center shipments for the month, according to our latest service center inventories data.

Apparent steel supply remained high in May
The volume of finished steel entering the US market remained elevated in May, in line with April figures, according to SMU’s analysis of Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data

June service center shipments and inventories report
Flat rolled = 55.8 shipping days of supply Plate = 59.4 shipping days of supply Flat rolled US service centers’ flat-rolled steel supply edged down in June with a modest boost to shipments month on month (m/m). At the end of June, US service centers carried 55.8 shipping days of flat roll supply, down from […]

SMU Scrap Survey: Sentiment Indices rise
Both current and future scrap sentiment jumped this month, though survey participants reported responses before key trade news was announced.

SMU Survey: Sentiment splits, buyers have better view of future than the present
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in opposite directions this week. After rebounding from a near five-year low in late June, Current Sentiment slipped again. At the same time, Future Sentiment climbed to a four-month high. Both indices continue to show optimism among buyers about their company’s chances for success, but suggest there is less confidence in that optimism than earlier in the year.