Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
July 14, 2017
I am working on an article regarding foreign steel offers, which have almost dried up completely due to the threats/unknowns associated with the Section 232 investigation. There have been a number of months where foreign steel imports have exceeded 3.5 million tons. We are hearing that these months will soon be behind us – although my gut tells me it might be October before we see any radical change in the numbers. The U.S. Department of Commerce will release new import license data on Tuesday evening. We will be on top of the numbers as we work to better understand both the short- and long-term consequences associated with change and with uncertainty.
I was reading an article about India and its steel industry earlier today. It was amazing in light of what is going on around the world regarding steel overcapacity. The article was about how India was looking to become the second largest steel producing nation within the next few years and by 2020-2025 they expect to have 300 million metric tons (330 million net tons) of capacity. (The Business Today article attributes the forecast to Dr. Venugapalan of Tata Steel). Is the world doomed to learn the errors of the Chinese over and over again? The article I was reading also said that the country has enough iron ore supplies to support that 300 million metric tons for 35 years.
I also read a piece in The Hill written by Daniel Pearson about how foolish the Chinese must feel transferring their wealth with every ton of steel they export to the rest of the world.
SMU will begin a new flat rolled steel market trends analysis at 8 AM ET Monday morning. If you get an invitation to participate, please click on the button contained in the message that will take you to our questionnaire. All responses are kept confidential. Thank you in advance for your help.
If you have downloaded the SMU Events App and are having issues, please contact Brett@SteelMarketUpdate.com on Monday morning and he should be able to help you. We will be sending out instructions and logins to those new to the App on Monday morning.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
I’m not sure how many different ways I can write that it’s been a quiet market ahead of Independence Day. There are variations on that theme. I’ve heard everything from the ominous “eerily quiet” to "getting better" and even the occasional “blissfully unaware” (because I’m enjoying my vacation).

Final Thoughts
What's going to be the next big thing in steel?

Final Thoughts
Based on the amount of ‘out of office’ replies we’ve been receiving and the results of this week’s steel buyers’ survey, those pesky summer doldrums have arrived for the steel industry.

Final Thoughts
Maybe some of this uncertainty will get ironed out ahead of Liberation Day tariffs resetting higher rates on July 9. But if I had to place a wager, it would be on more drama and last-minute brinksmanship - whether it comes to the Liberation Day tariffs or the various Section 232s that are in the works.

Final Thoughts
What should you keep your eye on, considering the latest geopolitical events?