SMU Data and Models

Domestic Mills Win Back Market Share from Imports in 2017
Written by Peter Wright
February 25, 2018
In 2017, the domestic steel market contracted by 0.5 percent, but domestic shipments were up while imports were down.
Table 1 shows 11 years of history of total steel supply to the U.S. market broken down into shipments from domestic mills and imports, excluding semi-finished. The hot rolled steel market totaled 106.4 million tons in 2017. Supply increased for five consecutive years 2010 through 2014, declined in 2015 and was relatively flat in 2016 and 2017. In 2017, imports excluding semis totaled 28.3 million tons.
Table 2 shows the year-over-year change annually since 2006. In 2017, the total market was down 0.5 percent, but the domestic mills took share from imports. Compared to 2016, mill shipments to domestic locations were up by 4.1 percent while imports were down by 11.2 percent. This trend was particularly driven by long products, less so for sheet.
Figure 1 shows the relative size of the major sectors identified by the American Iron and Steel Institute and the U.S. International Trade Commission.
The three-month moving average of rolled product imports declined for each of the five months August through December, a period in which the market was anticipating possible Section 232 restrictions on foreign steel.

Peter Wright
Read more from Peter WrightLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU Scrap Survey: Current and Future Sentiment tick down
SMU’s Current Sentiment Index for scrap decreased this month, a move mirrored by our Future Sentiment Index, according to the latest data from our ferrous scrap survey.

SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment slips again, future outlook improves
Each of our Sentiment Indices continues to reflect that steel buyers are positive about their present and future business prospects, though that confidence has eased considerably compared to the beginning of the year.

SMU scrap market survey results now available
SMU’s October ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.

SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.

SMU Survey: Sheet and plate lead times stabilize
Sheet and plate lead times saw minor shifts this week, according to SMU’s latest market survey. Sheet times have inched up over the last month but remain within days of multi-year lows, as they have since May. Plate lead times have bobbed within a tight range for months, hovering roughly a week longer than this time last year.