SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Negotiations: Majority Say Prices in Play
Written by Tim Triplett
August 8, 2019
For a steel industry that is hoping to collect higher prices on flat rolled and plate products, the mills seem surprisingly willing to negotiate, according to the findings from Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire. Well, then again, when you announce $120 per ton of base price increases (or more, depending on what your starting point was) there is a lot more room to negotiate.
The steel mills increased prices three times in the span of a month beginning in late June for a total of $120 per ton and have collected roughly half so far. SMU’s average benchmark price for hot rolled has risen to $580 per ton from a low of $520 on June 25. Some observers expect additional price announcements from the mills in the coming days or weeks. SMU’s Price Momentum Indicator is still pointing Higher, but prices appear to be in play.
In the hot rolled segment, a substantial majority (71 percent) said the mills were open to price talks on HR this week. Just 29 percent said their mill suppliers were holding the line. In mid-July, it was about a 50-50 proposition for buyers to win concessions from the mills.
Prices are just as negotiable on cold rolled steel, according to 77 percent of respondents. Only 23 percent report the mills holding firm on cold rolled prices, down 10 percentage points from two weeks ago.
Similarly, 65 percent said the mills are open to price negotiations to close the deal on galvanized orders, up six percentage points over the past two weeks. Just 35 percent said the mills are now standing pat on galv prices. For Galvalume, there’s a 50 percent chance to negotiate a discount.
The situation is the reverse for plate. The bargaining for plate orders has continued to tighten since early July, as 63 percent of buyers now report plate mills willing to talk price—down from 89 percent in early July.
Note: SMU surveys active steel buyers twice each month to gauge the willingness of their steel suppliers to negotiate pricing. The results reflect current steel demand and changing spot pricing trends. SMU provides our members with a number of ways to interact with current and historical data. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Negotiations data, visit our website here.
Tim Triplett
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