Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts

Written by John Packard


As mentioned above, it is crunch time for me and my team as we prepare for the conference, now one week away.

I want to emphasize SMU will have a major announcement at the conference on Monday as we roll out our Service Center Inventories on Hand, on Order, Shipments and an analysis of what we believe the numbers mean for service centers, and for prices going forward. I have been working on this project for more than two years, and it is one of the reasons why I agreed to sell the company a little more than one year ago. I believe this data will become a standard for the industry to relate in the months and years ahead. There will be more information provided at the conference on Monday shortly after 1 PM.

John Packard Summit 18It’s funny how trade, indexes, new mill capacities and politics as well as the economy are all at the forefront of people’s minds as we prepare for 2020. Our conference will touch these items in detail.

Our first SMU NexGen Leadership Award will be presented on Tuesday, Aug. 27, at the SMU Steel Summit Conference….

You can read more about the conference in the article I wrote for this evening’s newsletter (see above).

Our Oct. 8-9 Steel 101 workshop has maybe one, at most two, seats available. Registration is now on an “inquire only” basis. Please send an email to Events@SteelMarketUpdate.com if you, or a member of your company, is interested in attending the Cincinnati workshop, which will include a tour of Nucor Gallatin’s electric arc steel mill.

After the October Steel 101 workshop, the next one will be held in Ontario, Calif., on Jan. 7-8, 2020, and will include a tour of the California Steel Industries slab conversion mill, and if time permits their pipe and tube mill. I believe we will start taking registrations for this workshop within the next week or two (depending on how buried we get with the SMU Steel Summit Conference).

Now is an excellent time to upgrade your account. By this, I mean going from Executive to Premium membership (the Service Center Inventory data will be going to Premium subscribers beginning in September). You can also upgrade by going to one of our Regional or Global subscription plans, which allow unlimited members from your company to read SMU. For more information, contact Paige Mayhair at 724-720-1012 or by email at: Paige@SteelMarketUpdate.com

As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.

John Packard, President & CEO

Latest in Final Thoughts

Final thoughts

Thanks to everyone who attended our Steel Hedging 101 workshop in Chicago on Wednesday. I learned a lot from StoneX Group’s Spencer Johnson, who instructs the course, and from your good questions. One thing that Spencer said sticks with me as I write this column. Namely, that momentum drives steel prices more than other commodity markets. If you watch steel futures, you’ll see up days and down days. But it’s rare to see the momentum shifting back and forth within any given day.

Final thoughts

SMU's prices ranges for flat-rolled steel were mostly sideways on Tuesday even as futures market shot higher. I got some questions as to why hot-rolled (HR) coil futures shot higher. As best as I can tell, it might have been in response to news that China plans to roll out stimulus measures. We have details on those measures here thanks to our colleagues at CRU. The chart below gives you some idea of just how sharply upward the move in HR futures was earlier on Tuesday: