Final Thoughts
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Final Thoughts
Written by Tim Triplett
September 14, 2020
We can all agree steel prices are on an upward trajectory right now. How high they will go, and for how long, is another matter.
SMU’s check of the market on Monday and Tuesday puts the benchmark price for hot rolled steel at $580 per ton, up about $40 in the past week. U.S. Steel, UPI and Algoma announced another round of price increases this week. Buyers tell us their mill reps are holding the line with $600 per ton HR as the target.
There are two schools of thought in the market right now, captured well by these contrasting quotes from two SMU sources: “The recent price announcement has lots of traction; inventories got too low and buyers got flat footed. It will stick. There is no negotiation on HR and galvanized right now, with $30/cwt firm for HR and $40/cwt firm for galv.” Then there’s the comment from another steel exec: “Interesting moves by the mills, reminiscent of the old days. Pile on increases, move out lead times…then ride that horse till it dies. We don’t see this exuberance lasting beyond November, even with all the so-called outages. Q4 is typically lower demand for all, COVID in winter is still an unknown, the election will be a spectacle undecided for weeks, etc. Contract negotiations for 2021 may still be undetermined by December. Smart buyers will station themselves on the sidelines and wait for an opportunity.”
Added another industry veteran: “As usual the mills are going for the jugular and it looks like it could remain tight for at least 45-60 days. At some point the integrateds will overcome production issues and auto schedules will back off. Then WATCH OUT!”
Analyst Timna Tanners of Bank of America has raised her second half steel forecast to reflect the better than expected demand, but her outlook is tempered. “U.S. hot rolled coil prices are heading for $600 per ton near term, with Monday’s price hike supported by higher scrap costs for minimills and strong auto demand tying up their integrated mill peers. We expect near-term strength can last into November, as recent greater protection from imports and strong Chinese demand keep global alternatives expensive.” She pointed to mill outages that have tightened supplies, including planned downtime at Stelco’s Hamilton mill, reduced volumes at NLMK’s Farrell, Pa., mill due to a strike, and unplanned outages at U.S. Steel’s Mon Valley and ArcelorMittal’s Burns Harbor. “However, we expect disrupted mills to resume output and seasonal weakness in Q4 to dampen prices ahead.”
Watching the news footage of the tragic fires on the West Coast and all the burned out vehicles littering the smoky landscape, I wondered if the scrap market might see a big enough bump in supply to affect prices. The experts at CRU tell me the fires most likely will not impact scrap collection in any meaningful way as the West Coast is not a big factor in the U.S. scrap market. Many thought the devastating hurricanes in the South a few years ago would flood the market with scrap, but that proved not to be the case.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
Tim Triplett, Executive Editor
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Tim Triplett
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Final thoughts
SMU has heard from some larger buyers who have stepped back into the market to buy at prices that, if not at a bottom, they assess to be close to one. Is it enough to stretch out lead times and send prices upward again? Or do we continue to scrape along the mid-$600s per short ton (st) as we have been doing for most of the last month?
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Final thoughts
Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman, President and CEO Lourenco Goncalves had some insightful things to say today about the steel market and about a conference we suspect might be Steel Summit.
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Final thoughts
They say a picture is worth a thousand words. Well, when you add in some commentary from respected peers in the steel industry to those pictures, that may shoot you up to five thousand words, at least. In that spirit, we’ve added some snapshots from our market survey this week, along with some comments from market participants.
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Final thoughts
I thought we’d have more clarity this week on Section 232, Mexico, and a potential carve-out for steel melted and poured in Brazil. As of right now, the only official comment I have is from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR).
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Final thoughts
There are just 40 days left until the 2024 SMU Steel Summit gets underway on Aug. 26 at the Georgia International Convention Center (GICC) in Atlanta. And I’m pleased to announce that it's official now: More than 1,000 people have registered to at attend! Another big development: The desktop version of the networking app for the event has officially launched!