• Skip to main content

    Prices

    SMU Price Ranges & Indices: “Some Scary Level for Steel”

    Written by Brett Linton


    Hot rolled steel offers ranged as high as $1,500 per ton this week as steel tags just keep rising to levels never seen before. Steel Market Update’s check of the market this week puts the average HR price at a record $1,440 per ton, up another $30 per ton over last week and 35% higher than the previous peak reported by SMU in 2008. Cold rolled and coated steel prices saw similar inflation of $20-40 per ton week over week as demand accelerates in the post-pandemic economic rebound and steel supplies remain in short supply. “This is some scary level for steel. Prices have been increasing by at least $100 per ton each month. So the coming peak could be even higher than we think,” said one buyer. Added another: “How can anyone argue that hot rolled won’t get to $1,500 per ton. We are already seeing above those numbers in the spot market. The indices will get there, guaranteed!”

    Plate prices were more difficult to gauge this week as it is sometimes difficult to separate the FOB mill prices that we request from the delivered prices that we receive. A common price for plate, before delivery and extras, is likely around $1,220 per ton, in line with the minimum announced this week by Nucor. But some sources reported base prices as high as $1,340 per ton, putting the midpoint of the range higher at $1,280 per ton. So we leave it to readers to draw your own conclusions on plate. Steel Market Update’s Price Momentum Indicators continue to point toward higher prices on all steel products over the next 30 days.

    Brett Linton

    Read more from Brett Linton

    Latest in Prices

    Nucor temporarily halted secondary offers, rattling a tight US market

    Nucor opened its secondary and excess product bid list across all its flat-rolled mills last Monday, as it typically does, market participants told SMU. But by Wednesday, when bidding was scheduled to close, Nucor notified buyers it would not be awarding any bids that week. The abrupt close sent a shock through the secondary market, they said. “There will be no awards this week,” emails from Nucor sales representatives to customers confirmed. “Effective immediately, we are placing a temporary hold on all secondary sales.”

    Sheet prices surge as ’26 market squeeze spills into ’27

    Sheet prices soared this week as market participants increasingly predict that the strong market characterizing 2026 will stretch well into 2027. And with extremely limited spot availability, mills that have spot tons to sell are charging a significant premium, they said. The result: Sheet prices saw their highest week-over-week gains since March 2025, according to SMU's pricing records. That's when President Trump shocked the market by expanding Section 232 tariffs to cover traditional US allies such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU.

    Nucor increases spot HR to $1,280/ton

    Nucor said on Monday, Nov. 2, that its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil will be $1,280 per short ton (st) this week, up $10/st from last week. The CSP for HR coil from California Steel Industries (CSI) on the West Coast will be $1,350/st, also up $10/st from a week earlier. Nucor continues to offer lead times of three to five weeks, according to its letter to customers. You can track mill price announcements on our website. Steel Market Update published a weekly price assessment on Tuesday, Oct. 27, showing HR coil prices averaging $1,305/st, up $15/st from the previous week.

    HR Futures: Basic story remains, but curve shifts

    In my last column, the HRC futures curve was pricing a sizable premium on near-term tightness while still pointing toward eventual normalization. Since then, that basic story has remained intact, but the shape of the curve has shifted meaningfully. Rather than simply moving higher and pushing the peak out by another month, as has largely been the pattern throughout this rally, the curve is now pricing a more pronounced and prolonged period of tightness, while the long end has remained relatively anchored, which previously had also been lifted with the rest of the curve.

    galvalume steel coil

    SMU Survey: Mill willingness to negotiate price at lowest levels since 2021

    The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that mills continue to hold a firm grip on prices. The share of buyers reporting that mills were negotiable fell this week to the lowest rate seen in over five years. Every two weeks, SMU surveys service center and manufacturer buyers asking if mills are negotiable on new spot sheet and plate orders. In this week’s survey, just 3% of respondents said mills were willing to talk price to secure an order (Figure 1). This is down 11 percentage points from our mid-October survey.