• Skip to main content

    Analysis

    August 30, 2021

    Final Thoughts

    Written by Michael Cowden

    We often talk a lot about hot-rolled coil prices in Final Thoughts. I’d like to take a deeper dive into coated prices today.

    It’s been an almost straight line up for an entire year for flat-rolled steel prices. And galvanized is no exception. Galvanized base prices are at $2,070 per ton ($103.50 per cwt). That’s nearly double $1,085 per ton at the beginning of the year and more than triple a 2020 low – recorded last summer – of $640 per ton. But it’s down $25 per ton from last week – and “down” is not something we’re used to saying anymore.

    Michael Cowden

    Michael Cowden is editor-in-chief for Steel Market Update. Cowden has covered the steel industry since 2007. He specializes in flat-rolled steel but has also reported on steel long products, steel pipe and tube, and aluminum. Before joining SMU, Cowden held reporting jobs at Fastmarkets AMM in Chicago, the Associated Press in Pittsburgh, and the Cambodia Daily in Phnom Penh. He has also worked as a copy editor and in marketing at the University of Chicago Press. Cowden has a BA in English from the University of Chicago and an MSJ journalism from Northwestern University’s Medill School of Journalism. Contact him at michael@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7872.

    Read more from Michael Cowden

    Latest in Analysis

    galvalume steel coil

    SMU Survey: Mill willingness to negotiate price at lowest levels since 2021

    The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that mills continue to hold a firm grip on prices. The share of buyers reporting that mills were negotiable fell this week to the lowest rate seen in over five years. Every two weeks, SMU surveys service center and manufacturer buyers asking if mills are negotiable on new spot sheet and plate orders. In this week’s survey, just 3% of respondents said mills were willing to talk price to secure an order (Figure 1). This is down 11 percentage points from our mid-October survey.

    HR Futures: Basic story remains, but curve shifts

    In my last column, the HRC futures curve was pricing a sizable premium on near-term tightness while still pointing toward eventual normalization. Since then, that basic story has remained intact, but the shape of the curve has shifted meaningfully. Rather than simply moving higher and pushing the peak out by another month, as has largely been the pattern throughout this rally, the curve is now pricing a more pronounced and prolonged period of tightness, while the long end has remained relatively anchored, which previously had also been lifted with the rest of the curve.

    SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available

    The results of the latest Steel Market Update (SMU) flat-rolled market survey are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in, look under the Data tab for Market Reports, and there you will find the Flat-Rolled Survey Results section. Previous survey results are also available on that page. If you need help accessing these results, or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.

    Mill lead times climb to new highs, buyers expect little relief

    Lead times for sheet and plate products continued to lengthen amid historically tight supply, according to the latest SMU steel market survey data. Average lead times now extend into January 2027, with some mills quoting availability well into February. Lead times for all sheet products except Galvalume stand at their highest point since the post-Covid demand snapback in 2021. Plate lead times exceed their 2021 peak, setting a record in our data series, which dates to 2018. (We started collecting sheet lead times earlier, in 2011.)