SMU Price Ranges & Indices: Flat Rolled Prices Down Another $60-100 Per Ton

Flat rolled steel prices declined by another $60-100 per ton in the past week, pushing the benchmark hot rolled price down to $1,235 per ton. That’s a decline of about 37% or a total of $720 per ton since the market peaked five months ago. Why the sharp decline? An imbalance between supply and demand as service centers work down excess inventories and buyers postpone purchases to see how low prices will go. How much longer will this slide continue? That’s unknowable, but the majority (64%) of the buyers responding to SMU’s latest survey predict HRC prices will bottom out sometime between now and the end of the second quarter. Meanwhile, SMU’s Price Momentum Indicators continue to point toward lower flat rolled prices over the next 30 days, but remain neutral for plate prices, which appear to be holding their own for the time being.

Hot Rolled Coil: SMU price range is $1,160-$1,310 per net ton ($58.00-$65.50/cwt) with an average of $1,235 per ton ($61.75/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range decreased $90 per ton compared to one week ago, while the upper end declined $110 per ton. Our overall average is down $100 per ton from last week. Our price momentum on hot rolled steel is at Lower, meaning we expect prices to decrease over the next 30 days.