• Skip to main content

    Prices

    Ferrous Futures: Rangebound and Itching for a Big Move - Up or Down?

    Written by David Feldstein


    Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. Rock provides customers attached to the steel industry with commodity price risk management services and market intelligence. RTA is registered with the National Futures Association as a Commodity Trade Advisor. David has over 20 years of professional trading experience and has been active in the ferrous derivatives space since 2012.

    This chart shows the HRC futures curve through March 2023 on Friday February 18, Tuesday March 22, and Monday April 25. February 18 was the Friday before the initial Cleveland-Cliff’s price increase announcement and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. March 22 was the high of the post-invasion short-squeeze rally.

    David Feldstein, SMU Contributor

    David Feldstein

    Read more from David Feldstein

    Latest in Prices

    Plate supply squeeze tightens as demand presses higher

    The domestic plate market is showing few signs of relief for steel buyers. Lead times are stretching well beyond seasonal norms, spot availability has all but evaporated, and mills are drawing hard lines on contract volumes heading into 2027 negotiations. And the supply squeeze will likely intensify in a market that some industry sources say is structurally undersupplied because of stringent US trade and tariff policies. Imports have been arriving in larger volumes, and the expectation is they will continue to tick higher into 2027. The big question is whether those foreign tons will arrive in volumes sufficient to provide the relief steel consumers want.