Product
June 1, 2022
Written by Brett Linton
Earlier this week SMU canvassed buyers on a variety of subjects, ranging from steel prices and demand to supply chain issues and new domestic capacity. Rather than summarizing the comments we received, we thought it would be fitting to share them in each buyers’ own words.
Where do you think steel prices will bottom, and when?
Nucor Plate Group said it will increase its fuel surcharge to $40 per short ton (st) next month, effective for all shipments beginning Nov. 1. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker first said in April that the fuel surcharge was necessary to address rising costs, initially setting the surcharge at $10/st on April 16. The company had previously maintained the $10/st surcharge rate for four straight months through Aug. 17. But it has since doubled its rate in back-to-back months—increasing its surcharge to $20/st in September, followed by its Oct. 15 notice to $40/st. “We remain committed to providing reliable service and transparency as we adapt to changing market dynamics,” Nucor said in a letter to customers on Thursday evening. Nucor announces the surcharge amount on or about the 15th of each month for shipments beginning the following month.
Lead times for sheet and plate continued to extend amid a domestic supply squeeze, according to the latest SMU steel market survey data. Average lead times stretch into mid- or late December, and those at some mills now extend into 2027. Lead times for all sheet products except Galvalume stand at their highest point since the post-covid demand snapback in 2021. Lead times for plate are now even higher than their 2021 peak.
US service centers’ flat-rolled steel supply increased marginally in September, gaining ground for only the second time all year. Shipping days of supply rose to 45.9 last month, according to SMU data. That figure marks a 3.7% increase from August. September’s result represents a modest gain after inventories hit a five-year low the previous month. But it’s nearly 16% below September 2025 levels. Sheet inventories have averaged ~45 shipping days of supply over the past six months. Flat-rolled inventories represented 2.18 months of supply in September, up 3.7% from August. However, the figure was 15.5% below September 2025. The month-on-month (m/m) gain in inventories resulted from a boost (+21.2%) in intake that was partially offset by a 5% increase in shipments.
CME Group’s hot-rolled coil futures have jumped higher as the loss of a reheating line at a large Southern mill have renewed domestic production issues. At market close on Oct. 12, the Q4'26 futures are now pricing in $1,295 per short ton (st) for HR coil, a month-over-month (m/m) increase of $63/st. For 2027, the forward curve is up $80 /st vs. September, at $1,207/st. For November 2026 through March 2027, prices are at an average just above $1,300/st.
The spread between domestic hot-rolled (HR) coil and prime scrap prices widened for the 13th consecutive month in October, hitting another multi-year high. SMU’s hot-rolled (HR) coil price stands at $1,280 per short ton (st) on average this week, up $10/st from last week and a $40/st increase from a month earlier. Meanwhile, busheling averaged $480 per gross ton (gt) in October, rising $12.50/gt higher from September.