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    Analysis

    Final Thoughts

    Written by Michael Cowden


    We’ll kick off our Steel Summit conference in Atlanta in just a few short days. I’m looking forward to learning from executives across the supply chain – from steel mills and service centers to automakers and trucking companies.

    I’m also looking forward to getting the mood of the room when we do our annual poll on where people think hot-rolled coil prices will be this time next year. I say mood of the room because, for forecasting purposes, our collective track record is, well, almost hilariously bad.

    Michael Cowden

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    SMU Survey: Current Buyers’ Sentiment rises slightly as Future Sentiment dips

    SMU’s Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index ticked up slightly this week, while Future Sentiment fell, according to our latest market survey. Every two weeks, SMU polls thousands of steel-industry executives, asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and also three to six months down the road. We use their responses to calculate our proprietary Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, measures tracked since 2008.

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    SMU Survey: Mill willingness to negotiate price at lowest levels since 2021

    The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that mills continue to hold a firm grip on prices. The share of buyers reporting that mills were negotiable fell this week to the lowest rate seen in over five years. Every two weeks, SMU surveys service center and manufacturer buyers asking if mills are negotiable on new spot sheet and plate orders. In this week’s survey, just 3% of respondents said mills were willing to talk price to secure an order (Figure 1). This is down 11 percentage points from our mid-October survey.