• Skip to main content

    Market Data

    November 2, 2022

    Steel Demand Index Pointing Lower, Prices and Lead Times to Follow

    Written by David Schollaert

    Apparent demand for flat-rolled steel in the US edged down slightly in SMU’s latest analysis of demand and lead time dynamics. Despite the slight decline in the latter half of October, the month’s SMU Steel Demand Index closed out roughly 2.5 points above September’s reading but remained in contracting territory for the sixth straight month — the second-longest streak in our data’s history.

    Since falling 9.5 points in late May — the sharpest decline since the onset of the pandemic — the Steel Demand Index has been unable to get anywhere near growth territory, let alone the neutral mark of 50.

    David Schollaert

    David Schollaert is deputy editor-in-chief for Steel Market Update. David joined SMU after more than a decade in the metals and mining industry in a myriad of different roles. Much of his early experience and expertise were within the coverage and analysis of steel-making raw materials and served previously as senior editor of the CRU Prices Service. Most recently, however, before his return to market analysis, David held roles as a metals buyer and an operations manager for raw material suppliers. He can be contacted at david@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-720-1008.

    Read more from David Schollaert

    Latest in Market Data

    US steel output falls 5.1% to lowest level since January: AISI

    Domestic raw steel production fell last week, dropping to the lowest output since January, according to the latest American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) figures. The seesaw pattern continued for US production this past week, maintaining a trend seen for the past few months. Fluctuations have been so significant that in just the past two months, output has hit both a six-year high and a six-month low. And despite the week-to-week variations, output has mostly trended lower. Still, despite that overall decline, output to date in 2026 remains strong compared with recent years. AISI estimated total US raw steel mill output to be 1,774,000 short tons (st) in the week ending Oct. 24 (Figure 1). Production was 96,000 st (5.1%) below the prior week, driven by cuts in two of the five regions tracked by AISI.

    Global raw steel output down again in September

    Global raw steel production slowed for the fourth straight month in September, according to the latest figures from the World Steel Association (worldsteel). After falling 3.4% month over month (m/m) in August, the total volume of raw steel produced around the globe ticked down 1.2% to an estimated 142.4 million metric tons (mt) in September. Output was down just 0.1% year over year (y/y). On a 12-month moving average (12MMA) basis, annual production has averaged 149.3 million mt per month across the past year. This was down 1.6% y/y and was the lowest 12MMA since May (Figure 1). Before September 2025, annual output had generally hovered between 152 million mt and 154 million mt for over three years, similar to pre-pandemic levels.

    Drilling activity is flat again in the US, recovers in Canada

    The latest tally of active drilling rigs held steady in the US for a third straight week, while activity rose in Canada this week, according to oil and gas rig count data published by Baker Hughes. The US rig count remained unchanged at 603 rigs this week, maintaining a 17-month high. Compared to this time last year, there are 53 more rigs in operation today. Canada’s count rose by three to 220 rigs this week, recovering after a short-lived easing the prior week. Activity is up compared to the same week of 2025, with 21 more rigs operating today.

    Final Thoughts: Is the steel market now tighter than in 2021?

    "Now, the problem is no longer the price. The problem is having access to steel." That would have made a good lead. But I can’t take credit for it. Those (very quotable) words are from Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves during the steelmaker’s quarterly earnings conference call on Monday. For a while, I thought the shortages we'd been hearing about might be mostly a problem for small- and mid-sized buyers. But we’re seeing even some of the biggest steel buyers talking openly about supply problems.

    Metalformers grow more cautious in October

    Metalformers’ economic outlook softened in the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) October Business Conditions Report. Still, the bulk of respondents continued to expect stable conditions. The monthly survey of 80 metalforming companies in the US and Canada provides an economic indicator for manufacturing over the next three months. “While this month’s survey reflects increased caution about the near-term economic outlook, the energy and investment on display at FABTECH this week tell a broader story about our industry’s resilience,” commented Mark Getsay, PMA’s managing director. Participation at the event, Getsay said, “demonstrates metalformers’ continued commitment to investing in new technologies, developing their workforce and strengthening their competitiveness for the future.”