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    Hot Rolled Futures: Anyone See a Bottom?

    Written by Michael D'Angelo


    Editor’s note: SMU Contributor Michael D’Angelo is a researcher and trader at Marex. In his role, Mike performs fundamental and quantitative analysis, which directly leads to actionable trading/risk management strategies across the base, precious, and ferrous metals derivative spaces. Prior to joining Marex, Mike received a BA in economics with a minor in finance from Princeton University. Mike can be reached at mdangelo@marex.com for comments/questions.

    CRU’s weekly Midwest HRC index got clobbered, falling to $687/ton on Nov. 2, down $48 (-6.53%) from the prior week — the largest percentage move since June 15. This is the first time the index has come in below $700 since December 2020.

    Michael D'Angelo

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    September service center shipments and inventories report

    US service centers’ flat-rolled steel supply increased marginally in September, gaining ground for only the second time all year. Shipping days of supply rose to 45.9 last month, according to SMU data. That figure marks a 3.7% increase from August. September’s result represents a modest gain after inventories hit a five-year low the previous month. But it’s nearly 16% below September 2025 levels. Sheet inventories have averaged ~45 shipping days of supply over the past six months. Flat-rolled inventories represented 2.18 months of supply in September, up 3.7% from August. However, the figure was 15.5% below September 2025. The month-on-month (m/m) gain in inventories resulted from a boost (+21.2%) in intake that was partially offset by a 5% increase in shipments.

    CRU: HR coil futures re-price 2027 forward curve

    CME Group’s hot-rolled coil futures have jumped higher as the loss of a reheating line at a large Southern mill have renewed domestic production issues. At market close on Oct. 12, the Q4'26 futures are now pricing in $1,295 per short ton (st) for HR coil, a month-over-month (m/m) increase of $63/st. For 2027, the forward curve is up $80 /st vs. September, at $1,207/st. For November 2026 through March 2027, prices are at an average just above $1,300/st.

    CMC’s earnings rise in fiscal fourth quarter

    CMC’s earnings increased in its fiscal fourth quarter, aided by strong growth in its North America Steel Group. The Irving, Texas-based longs steel producer and metal solutions provider reported net earnings of $212.5 million in its fiscal fourth quarter ended Aug. 31, up 40% from $151.8 million a year earlier. Net sales rose 26% to nearly $2.66 billion in the same comparison. The company said that core EBITDA growth increased 11.3% sequentially in its fiscal Q4 to $393.7 million, led by its North America Steel Group. In that segment, stronger margins and volume growth drove 60 basis points of core EBITDA margin expansion.