OEMs

Market Chatter: UAW Strike Special
Written by Becca Moczygemba
September 29, 2023
UAW president Shawn Fain announced a second expansion of the strike against the “Big Three” automakers on Friday.
When will the strike end? And what will it’s impact be on the steel market? We captured a lot of feedback on those issues in our latest survey.
Rather than summarizing the comments we received this week, we are sharing some of them in each buyer’s own words.
We want to hear your thoughts, too! Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to be included in our questionnaires.
How long do you think the strike will last?
“I think at least one more week. But I hope it is resolved before the second half of October. They will have to reach an agreement.”
“Three weeks is enough.”
“There are four weeks of finished units, so it should not last longer than that.”
“At some point, cooler heads will end this thing, but probably not for a while longer. Maybe late October/early November?”
“Ford’s settlement in Canada and their seemingly sincere attempt to settle here will lead the way. But it won’t be easy. The union is aggressive at the moment. This could take another 4 to 6 weeks.”
When do you think sheet will bottom, and why?
“I think the strike will go on through most of October and demand will pick up afterward.”
“We think the dust will settle with the UAW in late October.”
“I feel prices will bottom when the UAW strike is over. Pricing won’t go down much more than where it currently is, unless the strike continues on into November.”
“The length of the auto strike will help shape the bottom and timing for pricing.”
“We’re close. Scrap flow via the growing automotive strike will affect scrap, and domestic mills will hold the line.”
“We were ready to push some small spot price increases last week.”
Where do you think prices will be in two months?
“When the strike is resolved, prices will push upward.”
“Extended contract talks will deflate the number.”
“It’s really driven by when the strike gets settled and short-term needs spike.”
“The end of November will be January lead times. There will definitely be an increase or two by then.”
“Costs of manufacturing are going to prevent prices from lowering much more.”
“I am expecting to see prices fall from here, get to around $600/ton – but then climb back up a little after the UAW strike ends.”
“I feel once the UAW strike is over, prices will spike back up due to low inventories.”

Becca Moczygemba
Read more from Becca MoczygembaLatest in OEMs
Metalformers optimistic for early 2024
Optimism is on the rise among metalformers who expect less volatility in economic activity in the coming months, according to the November business report from the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA).
Trane ships more than 1 million HVAC units made with green steel
A year after signing purchase agreements with two US steelmakers, Trane Technologies has shipped more than 1 million HVAC units produced with low-carbon steel.

HARDI members report a seller’s market for galvanized sheet
Galvanized steel buyers reported a seller's market with steady demand, long lead times, and strong pricing on this month’s call of the Sheet Metal/Air Handling Council of the Heating, Air-Conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI) association.

UAW, automakers cheer ratified labor pact
The United Auto Workers (UAW) union has released the final tally of member votes, with a combined total of 64% voting in favor of labor agreements across the Detroit-area “Big Three” automakers.
UAW Members at Ford and Stellantis Ratify Contracts – Ending Strike
United Auto Workers (UAW) union members at Ford and Stellantis have joined their compatriots at General Motors in voting to ratify new labor contracts. That’s according to vote tallies posted by the union. The count was lopsided in favor of the new deal at Ford (69% of votes for ratification) and Stellantis (70% of votes […]