CRU
November 10, 2023
Written by Zhenzhen Jiang
CRU’s analysis shows that 7–12 million metric tons of additional steel demand will be generated following the issuance of RMB1 trillion bonds by the central government of China. The immediate impact of this is that market confidence has improved, which has supported prices. The additional steel demand is expected to materialize over 2024 and 2025.
CME Group’s hot-rolled coil futures have jumped higher as the loss of a reheating line at a large Southern mill have renewed domestic production issues. At market close on Oct. 12, the Q4'26 futures are now pricing in $1,295 per short ton (st) for HR coil, a month-over-month (m/m) increase of $63/st. For 2027, the forward curve is up $80 /st vs. September, at $1,207/st. For November 2026 through March 2027, prices are at an average just above $1,300/st.
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CME Group’s HR coil futures have had a volatile stretch over the past few weeks.
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For the next month, CRU forecasts that steelmaking raw materials demand will improve as buyers will restock ahead of seasonally stronger steel-demand periods.