Features

North American auto assemblies recover in January
Written by David Schollaert
February 21, 2024
North American auto assemblies recovered in January after a usual seasonal slowdown at year-end, according to LMC Automotive data. The result was driven by improved production across the region vs. December’s output.
Assembly recovery and continued improvements in supply during the second half of 2023 have pushed retail inventory levels in January to roughly 1.6 million units. The result is a 3.3% increase vs. the prior month, and a 38.1% boost year on year (y/y).
North American vehicle production, including personal and commercial vehicles, totaled 1.3 million units in January, a 24.2% gain from 1.05 million units in December. That’s also nearly 11% ahead of the 1.18 million produced one year ago.
Below in Figure 1 is North American light-vehicle production since 2014 on a rolling 12-month basis with a y/y growth rate. Also included is the average monthly production, which includes seasonality since 2014.

A short-term snapshot of assembly by nation and vehicle type is shown in the table below. It breaks down total North American personal and commercial vehicle production into US, Canadian, and Mexican components. It also includes the three- and 12-month growth rates for each and their momentum change.
For the three months and 12 months through January, the growth rate for total personal and commercial vehicle assemblies in the USMCA region is up by double-digits. The momentum change, however, remains slightly behind.

Personal vehicle production
The longer-term picture of personal vehicle production across North America is shown below. The charts in Figure 2 show the total personal vehicle production for North America and the total for the US, Canada, and Mexico.
In terms of personal vehicle production, the region saw a 25% month-on-month (m/m) boost in January, after declining by 22% the month prior. The result was also a 14% gain vs. the period one year ago.
The US saw the largest increase in units produced while Mexico’s percentage gain led the way in January vs. December. The US was up 104,784 units (+18.8%), followed by Mexico, up 71,646 units (+49.2%), while Canada produced 22,461 more units (+26.6%) m/m.
Production share across the region was largely unchanged. The US saw personal vehicle production share of the North American market edge up marginally to 67.1%. Both Mexico and Canada saw its share slip to 21.4% and 11.5%, respectively.

Commercial vehicle production
Total commercial vehicle production for North America and the total for each nation within the region are shown in the first chart in Figure 3 on a rolling three-month basis. Commercial vehicle production in the US and Mexico and their y/y growth rates, as well as the production share for each nation in North America, are also shown.
North American commercial vehicle production was up 21% in January with a total of 319,495 units produced during the month, an increase of 55,564 units m/m. The gain was driven by the US, which saw a 23.9% boost in commercial vehicle assemblies in January, producing 43,737 more vehicles m/m.
Canada produced 11,486 light commercial vehicles last month, a 5.2% increase from December’s 10,921 total units. January marked Canada’s 27th straight month of commercial vehicle assemblies after ceasing production for nearly two years from Jan. 2020 through Oct. 2021.
Mexico also reported a double-digit production growth in January vs. December, up 16.1% and producing 11,262 more vehicles over the same period.
The overall increase put the commercial production growth rate just 1.8% for the region last month, a strong reversal from a -8.9% rate in December.
The market share across the region was largely unchanged. The US was up 3.1 percentage points, with a total share of 69%, followed by Mexico with a 26.8% share, and Canada with at 4.2% share in May.
Presently, Mexico exports just under 80% of its light-vehicle production, with the US and Canada as the highest-volume destinations.

Editor’s Note: This report is based on data from LMC Automotive for automotive assemblies in the US, Canada, and Mexico. The breakdown of assemblies is “Personal” (cars for personal use) and “Commercial” (light vehicles with less than 6.0 metric tons gross vehicle weight rating; heavy trucks and buses are not included).

David Schollaert
Read more from David SchollaertLatest in Features

SMU Survey: Current Sentiment tumbles on tariffs, uncertainty, soft demand
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in opposing directions this week. Our Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index dropped to one of the lowest levels recorded in over five years, while Future Buyers’ Sentiment inched higher.

SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Past survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if […]

Final Thoughts
With SMU Steel Summit starting in just a few days, I decided to go back and do a quick check on where things stand now compared to the week before Summit last year.

SMU Survey: Buyers report little change in sheet and plate lead times
Steel buyers report steady lead times for sheet and plate products, a soft-sideways trend we've seen since May.

Canadian steelmakers call for protection after US adds derivatives to S232
The Canadian Steel Producers Association expressed dismay upon the news that the Trump administration had added over 400 products to the list of derivative products covered by the 50% Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum.