CRU
February 26, 2024
Written by Brett Reed & Diego Giangreco
Falling US sheet prices have reduced the attractiveness of hot-rolled (HR) coil imports as domestic mills price competitively to secure limited business. However, tightness in the cold-rolled (CR) coil market has extended delivery to June or July in some cases, and buyers may consider to import given competitive prices and arrival times.
CME Group’s hot-rolled coil futures have jumped higher as the loss of a reheating line at a large Southern mill have renewed domestic production issues. At market close on Oct. 12, the Q4'26 futures are now pricing in $1,295 per short ton (st) for HR coil, a month-over-month (m/m) increase of $63/st. For 2027, the forward curve is up $80 /st vs. September, at $1,207/st. For November 2026 through March 2027, prices are at an average just above $1,300/st.
CRU Research Principal speaks about the implication of Mesabi Metallics' proposed steel mill in Iowa.
CME Group’s HR coil futures have had a volatile stretch over the past few weeks.
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For the next month, CRU forecasts that steelmaking raw materials demand will improve as buyers will restock ahead of seasonally stronger steel-demand periods.