Features
March exports ease 5% from previous month's high
Written by Brett Linton
May 7, 2024
US steel exports eased through March but remain healthy, having reached a six-month high in February. The latest US Department of Commerce data shows 794,000 short tons (st) of steel were shipped out of the country in March, down 5% from February. Exports have had a strong start to 2024, jumping 25% month on month (m/m) in January and another 9% in February.
Monthly averages
Looking at exports on a 3-month moving average (3MMA) basis can smooth out the monthly fluctuations. Shipments had trended downward throughout the second half of 2023, falling to an 11-month low in December. The 3MMA changed course as it entered this year, rising each month since. The latest 3MMA through March is up to 802,000 st, an 8% increase from February and now at a six-month high.
Exports can be annualized on a 12-month moving average (12MMA) basis to further dampen month-to-month variations and highlight historical trends. From this perspective, steel exports have steadily trended upwards since bottoming out in mid-2020. The 12MMA reached a five-and-a-half-year high in February. In March, this measure declined slightly to 798,000 st but remains very strong historically.
Exports by product
Exports of most major flat-rolled steel products were flat to down in March. The biggest monthly mover was hot-rolled sheet (-28%), reversing the gains seen in February. Declines were also seen in other metallic coated products and plate cut lengths. Galvanized exports increased m/m to the second-highest level seen over the past seven months. Exports of cold-rolled and coiled-plate products were relatively flat m/m, with coiled-plate shipments hovering at the second-highest level seen in the last eight months.
March exports are 10% lower than levels one year prior. Notable year-on-year (y/y) decreases were seen in exports of plate cut lengths, other metallic coated, and hot rolled.
On a 3MMA basis, all but one of the steel product exports we track saw increases from February to March. The largest movers were coiled plate (+12%), other metallic coated (+11%), and galvanized (+10%).
Note that most steel exported from the US is destined for USMCA trading partners Canada and Mexico. Out of all exports, 50% in March went to Mexico, followed by 44% to Canada. The next largest recipients were Brazil and China at less than 1% each.
Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in Features
Final thoughts
Sometimes even in a bit of chaos there is complacency. And it seems that since March 2020, “a bit of chaos” has been the order of the day. That means in the world at large, and in steel specifically.
Leibowitz: The impact of new, harsher tariffs on China
The free market operates best when it is freest. But all governments intervene in markets in response to conditions that threaten peaceful progress. President Biden decided last week that market intervention was justified. He approved a report from the US Trade Representative (USTR) that recommended continuing the “Section 301” tariffs on Chinese imports into the United States.
AISI: USMCA can handle US, Mexico trade dust-up
The USMCA should be strong enough to handle trade disagreements on steel between the US and Mexico, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute’s (AISI’s) Kevin Dempsey.
Steel cylinders from India face US import duties
Non-refillable steel cylinder imports from India are subject to new antidumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD).
Final thoughts
SMU had the pleasure of attending the American Iron and Steel Institute's (AISI's) annual general meeting in Washington this week. It was a slow week in our nation's capital, so we were able to take a leisurely stroll around the National Mall and take in the sights. Just kidding. In fact, the meeting coincided with significant trade actions announced by the Biden administration. It included, among other things, additional tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum.