Analysis
December 17, 2024
Final Thoughts
Written by Ethan Bernard
It’s that time of year again. You know, that time when people wonder if those things are drones in New Jersey or if the aliens are ready to come onto the stage just in time for Inauguration Day. What will that do for steel price volatility? In any case, the SMU team finds itself in Pittsburgh this week.
The last time we gathered here together it was in August before Steel Summit. Pittsburgh in December is different, especially from December in Austin, Texas, where I live. Also of note, I turned on the TV here and saw an ad for the USS/Nippon deal. It really is Steel City.
Maybe it’s the way the winter suns glints off the Allegheny River just outside the CRU office. Or maybe it’s just that time of year when I get to thinking about the past 12 months. Maybe. In any case, it’s definitely been an interesting year. Here is me looking back, and wondering about what lies ahead.
Holiday musings…
The SMU team flew into Pittsburgh seeking holiday cheer,
Also attending some meetings, perhaps an after-work beer.
It was time for reflection, as we are closing the door
On what has been for many a lackluster 2024.
II.
Looking ahead, there’s, of course, Christmas, followed by New Year’s – and…
Will the first quarter of 2025 finally see a return of demand?
We are all so curious, what’s the next turn of the story
In the ongoing saga of service center inventory?
III.
Still, after Jan. 1, there’s another January date
That may have an influence on the prices of sheet and of plate…
IV.
The Tariffs are coming! The Tariffs are coming! It’s starting to feel
Like a man named the Donald will be influencing aluminum and steel.
Though he doesn’t wear a red suit, he often dons a red tie
And uses the English language in ways we know not why.
V.
Trade policy is a wild card, we don’t know what he will do
But remember this is the guy who put the teeth in Section 232.
So from Monterrey to Mumbai to the Canadian city of Regina
Heads are a scratching, What will he do about China?
VI.
Will he walk in like a hero and rescue the day,
Solving all the ills plaguing the USMCA?
What about CBAM, will there be a way through
To find carbon agreements as we deal with the EU?
VII.
Let’s not forget there are other issues afoot:
Will the longshoremen reach a pact or will the deal go kaput?
In Pittsburgh, the city of Mr. Rogers, there’s more than just labor,
Nippon Steel is still in town asking: Will you be my neighbor?
Editor’s note: For those not familiar with the pronunciation of Canadian cities… yes, Regina does in fact rhyme with China. For our US readers, it’s a nice piece of trivia to have up your sleeve.
