Features
SMU's Week in Review: May 5-May 9
Written by Stephanie Ritenbaugh
May 9, 2025
With so much happening in the news cycle, we want to make it easier for you to digest it all. Here are highlights of what’s happened and a few things to keep an eye on this upcoming week.
It was another busy week for earnings, and companies are using terms like “challenging,” “uncertain,” and, in the case of Cleveland-Cliffs, “unacceptable.”
Olympic Steel’s earnings slid during the first three months of the year, but the company remains optimistic about navigating a high-tariff environment, noting that 90% of its metals supply and nearly all of its sales are domestic.
Russel Metals advised that “near-term activity could be impacted by international trade policies and North American industrial activity.” But it still is in the market to expand through acquisitions.
But the biggest news came from Cleveland-Cliffs, which is idling six assets and is interested in selling non-core operations to stem losses. The steelmaker gushed red ink during the first quarter, losing more than seven times the amount it lost during the same time last year.
Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves also said it would not have been so eager to buy Canadian sheet producer Stelco if he had known that “Canada would not be treated like a friend” by the US.
Trade
There were more developments on the tariff front, as the US and UK reached a trade deal that includes an “alternative” to Section 232 tariffs on British steel and aluminum that went into effect in March.
Meanwhile, SMU’s Stephen Miller took a look at trade policy by reflecting on the early days of pig iron production, going back to the Hanging Rock region of Southeastern Ohio.
Prices
Sheet prices were flat or down again during the week as market participants brace for what some said could be a slow summer for steel. The declines came after Nucor lowered its list price for hot-rolled coil by $20 per short ton.
Steel consumers said they are generally out of the spot market, with some noting that they continue to buy only to their contract minimums. The resulting thin spot market has perhaps kept prices from falling more significantly. Simply put, mills don’t think that lowering prices would bring in much new business.
So how do imports look?
Asian hot-rolled prices are still much, much cheaper than US HR. German and Italian HR, in contrast, are more expensive then US hot band on a landed basis. SMU’s David Schollaert digs into the data.
The US ferrous scrap market for May shipment settled, with the prime grades of #1 Busheling and bundles falling around $30 per gross ton (gt) from April levels. The obsolescent grades of HMS, shredded and plate, and structural declined by ~$40/gt across several regions. Market participants had expected a drop in scrap prices. But some had thought busheling would fare better than it did.
Economic highlights
May 12: Monthly US federal budget
May 13: Consumer price index
May 15: Initial jobless claims, retail sales, producer price index, Empire State manufacturing survey
May 16: Import price index, housing starts, preliminary consumer sentiment
Stephanie Ritenbaugh
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Final Thoughts
Not many people in the North American steel market had direct US involvement in another Middle East conflict on their bingo card. Prices weren't expected to shoot higher unless something unexpected happened. That unexpected something has now happened. And there is talk of oil at $100 per barrel. What does that mean for steel?
SMU Community Chat: Wednesday With AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson
We’ll have a lot to talk about because construction is at the intersection of so many of today’s hot-button issues. The main question: Will construction thrive or dive in the rest of ’25? (Nothing wrong with a rhyme, even in serious times.)
Price: Is It Nippon Steel USA or a partnership? And what does that mean for imports?
The document makes clear that Nippon Steel, through Nippon Steel America, will have “100% ownership of [the] common stock.” So if you want to own an interest in U.S. Steel’s future success, you will need to buy shares in Nippon Steel on the Nikkei stock exchange. It certainly will not be in your domestic S&P 500 ETF.