HVAC equipment shipments bounce back in May

Trends

To smooth out seasonal swings, shipments can be annualized using a 12-month moving average (12MMA). On this basis, total shipments peaked in early 2022 following the post-Covid surge, then declined through the end of 2023. A recovery began in early 2024 and has continued since. The May 12MMA rose to a two-and-a-half year high of 1.89 million units, up 8% year over year (y/y) (Figure 1, right).

Shipments by product

• Following March’s three-year high, water heater shipments fell for the second month in a row to a four-month low of 823,000 units. Although down 2% m/m, May levels were up 2% y/y.  
• Shipments of warm-air furnaces increased 7% m/m to 285,000 units in May, marking one full year of positive annual growth. Shipments were up 16% y/y.
• Air conditioners and heat pump shipments rebounded 8% m/m in May to an eight-month high of 862,000 units, 5% below May 2024 levels. Note that these shipments are highly seasonal, as evident in Figure 2.

Annual growth driven by cooling equipment

Figure 3 shows the annual growth rate of shipments by product on a 12MMA basis:

• Air conditioner and heat pump shipments experienced the largest annual gain, 15% higher than year-ago levels. This marks the eighth-consecutive month of positive annual growth and one of the highest rates witnessed in nearly four years.
• Warm-air furnace shipments also rose 15% y/y, the seventh month of positive annual growth and the highest rate witnessed since late 2021.
• Water heater shipments saw negative annual growth for the fourth-consecutive month, down 1% y/y. This rate has steadily eased following the mid-2024 peak.

An interactive history of heating and cooling equipment shipment data is available here on our website. If you need assistance logging in to or navigating the website, please contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.