Steel market chatter this week

Before diving in, we asked our internal AI tool to analyze the responses we collected and highlight four key themes. Here’s what it found:

• Buyers largely see prices at a floor, outlook split between rebound or further drift.
• Demand remains weak and stagnant, with only tentative signs of late-year recovery.
• Tariffs mostly seen as raising costs and hurting demand, with little reshoring impact.
• Inventories moving slower, imports uncompetitive, while capacity, outages, and labor weigh on market.

Want to share your thoughts? Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to be included in our market questionnaires.

How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“I feel prices are very near the bottom and will be trending up in the next three months, following a ‘typical’ year where prices move up as lead times move into the new year.”

“I see prices under pressure in this month and then the mills fighting to get prices up as we enter lead times into Q4, not sure they can bring up much but above $800 seems reasonable with imports so light and tariffs still in place.”

“It seems we are very near the bottom for both HRC and plate.”

“I’m hearing that prices may continue to dwindle down a bit more for maybe the next few weeks, but that we’re pretty close to the bottom of this cycle. Perhaps an interest rate drop, restocking or clarity on tariffs will cause some increase in business activity and help establish a price floor.”

“Up due to service center restocking. Lack of imports and lower inventory.”

“Pricing will remain stable or increase slightly if demand pickups up in October and November.”

“Flat to slightly upward, demand is still stagnant with market and tariff uncertainties.”

“Stable – shutdowns, manipulation.”

“Flat at best, demand is weak.”

“Stagnant on plate.”

“Stable. If prices haven’t dropped yet, maybe they won’t.”

“Very slightly down, impact of tariffs is waning, demand is tough.”

“We are expecting pricing to continue to drift lower. Demand is just too poor to support these numbers (which are still crazy-high when you look at it).”

Is demand improving, declining or stable?

“No, demand is… tepid? It’s not dead, just slow.”

“Demand seems to be ‘stable-ish’, but at a low level. I don’t know anyone who is busy. Everyone is slow.”

“Stable  but uncertain.”

“Still stable at best.”

“Stable at low levels.”

“Demand is stable to down, some of that is buyers holding off with prices falling. Expect seasonal slow down in Q4, but also expect mill lead times to extend with outages.”

“Demand is weak and declining.”

“Declining due to economic slowdown due to tariffs.”

“Stable with signs of improvement that we will see late fourth quarter and into 2026.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Inventory is moving slower. No one out there is buying major tons.”

“Slower, pace is down around 3% from last year.”

“It is moving slower, but we are also entering the period of the year where in the prior year inventory slowed with the election.”

“Slower due to a slowing economy/tariff uncertainty.”

“Slower, plate buyers are hesitant due to uncertainty climate.”

“Moving about the same as last year, which is lower than we had expected.”

“About the same.”

Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business?

Most buyers (58%) reported that their businesses are not benefiting from tariffs. Almost a third (31%) responded they are unsure how the policies will impact them, and only 11% believe the tariffs are helping. Comments included:

“No, the cost of goods is getting too high in the US.”

“Currently not helping our business but we are hopeful that once things are more certain on how they will end up they will help us.”

“No, they crushed demand.”

“Nope. The ‘noise’ has hurt businesses across-the-board. No one is out there spending money.”

“I go back and forth on this question, but due to very poor sales, I can’t say that they’re helping.”

“Unless demand returns, tariffs will only drive-up costs.”

“They are terrible. He will drive us into recession. We might already be in one now.”

“I think I can say that tariffs have helped keep the value of inventory from falling off.”

Are you seeing evidence of manufacturing reshoring to the US because of Trump’s tariffs?

Almost half of respondents (43%) report seeing no signs of reshoring. Of the remainder, 32% say they have observed some evidence, and 25% believe it is too early to tell.

Comments included:

“You could argue it is indeed ‘too early to say,’ but we just aren’t seeing the long-term evidence that wasn’t already in the works.”

“I’m only aware of one possible opportunity of reshoring among my customer base but not sure if it truly came back to the USA.”

“Yes, automotive moving parts back to the US.”

“Announcements continue to come in with regards to the automotive sector on US investments.”

“We have not reshored anything yet.”

“Very minor.”

“It’s all talk.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“No, imports are lucky to be at domestic prices with current tariffs.”

“Imports are not more attractive with a 50% tariff.”

“Imports are not price competitive. Longer lead times and unknown domestic prices.”

“Lead times and pricing for imports are out of whack with the tariffs. But watch out if the Supreme Court strikes down The Donald. That would be a mess!”

“No, plate imports offers are significantly higher than domestic.”

“Not attractive, most of our customers require domestic.”

“Imports are still a lot lower than domestic material.”

“Only on light-gauge painted material.”

“Some deals can get done, highly unlikely mills/traders are profitable at these numbers.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“Jobs report is awful; companies are tightening the belts as much as possible and trying to hold on.”

“Shrinking labor pool for manufacturing / trades jobs.”

“Future imports look to be falling off a cliff, accompanied by import stocks previously brought in drying up, should lead to more domestic demand.”

“Late-year buys and outages are taking up supply and possibly causing base price increases.”

“Excess domestic flat roll capacity. Should any new mills in the USA be celebrated?”

“Sales are down, Tariffs of steel components in product are too difficult to track, manufacturing is not growing quick enough in the US.”

“Plenty of service center M&A activity, which is fun. I wonder if we’ll see something with the ‘big boys,’ like the Top 10s?”