HVAC equipment shipments down through August

Warm-air furnaces bucked the trend and recovered, AHRI data shows.

Total August shipments were down 5% month over month (m/m) to a 19-month low of 1.68 million units, 19% less than the same month last year (Figure 1, left).

Although total shipments fell in August, year-to-date volumes remain relatively strong. Nearly 15 million units were produced in the first eight months of the year, the fourth-highest rate in our 19-year data history.

Trends

To smooth out seasonal swings, shipments can be annualized using a 12-month moving average (12MMA). On this basis, total shipments peaked in early 2022 following the post-Covid surge, then declined through late 2023. A recovery began in early 2024 and continued through May of this year, with annualized shipments climbing to a two-and-a-half-year high of 1.89 million units. In June, we saw this streak break as the 12MMA slipped to 1.86 million units, and it slipped again in August to 1.81 million units. Still, the total is up 1% year over year (y/y) (Figure 1, right).

Shipments by product

• Following March’s three-year high, water heater shipments have declined for five consecutive months to an 11-month low of 679,979 units in August. Totals are down 6% m/m and 12% y/y.
• Shipments of warm-air furnaces recovered 16% m/m to 302,986 units in August, and are up 3% from the same month last year. This follows one full year of positive annual growth.
• Air conditioners and heat pump shipments fell 11% m/m from July’s 763,443 units. August shipments were down 30% y/y. Note that these shipments are highly seasonal, as shown in Figure 2.

Annual growth driven by cooling equipment

Figure 3 shows the annual growth rate of shipments by product on a 12MMA basis. From this angle, annualized shipments are still holding up for most products, though weakness lingers in a few categories:

• Air conditioner and heat pump shipments were 0.5% higher on an annualized basis compared to the same period one year ago. August marked the 11th consecutive month of positive annual growth, yet it remains one of the lower rates observed this year.
• Warm-air furnace shipments again experienced a large annualized gain, rising 11% y/y, marking the 10th month in a row to see growth.
• Water heater shipments contracted for the seventh consecutive month, down 3% y/y. This rate has steadily eased following a mid-2024 peak.

An interactive history of heating and cooling equipment shipment data is available here on our website. If you need assistance navigating our website, please contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.