Steel market chatter this week

Before diving in, we read through each of the responses collected and found these key takeaways:

• Buyers generally expect prices to continue rising in the near term, though many believe the market could level off in the coming months.
• Demand is said to be stable to improving for most buyers, supported by low inventories and supply constraints. Inventories are reported to be moving faster than last summer.
• Most respondents say President Trump’s tariff policies are not helping their businesses, and few have seen evidence of tariffs driving manufacturing reshoring.
• Imports are becoming more appealing to many buyers due to higher domestic prices and supply constraints, though quotas and long lead times are still holding some back.

Want to share your thoughts? Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to be included in our market questionnaires.

How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“Prices will stay elevated. They might top out at some point, but it’s hard to predict. More imports could be arriving, and prices are getting to a level not comfortable for some.”

“Continue to rise slowly for another month or two.”

“I feel prices will continue to trend up but at a slower pace than they have been, somewhat leveling off. I feel demand is decent enough and supply constrained enough to keep prices from dropping.”

“Stable to up, seems like pricing is close to a peak level. But if the mills want to raise more, they can.”

“Pricing will increase unless quota volumes are increased to meet demand.”

“Up just a little more, I don’t think the mills can afford to raise prices much more without opening the floodgates to foreign steel coming in.”

“I think we’ll see a bit more run-up to go, something similar to the $5-$10/ton hikes that we’ve been seeing. But, I do think early 2027 could see a pretty nasty reversal.”

“Slowing increases but very stable otherwise.”

“Continued slow and steady increases. Demand is there.”

“Beginning to level off. Equilibrium.”

“I want to see it go down.”

Is demand improving, declining or stable?

“Demand is steady and strong. Limited supply is keeping people looking for supply options. Domestic or import.”

“Plate demand is improving, inventories are lower than being reported, and plate mills are running behind.”

“Demand is improving due to tariffs and quotas, even though overall demand is stable.”

“Slight uptick.”

“Stable to slightly growing.”

“Stable to improving, low inventories are making demand look better than it is.”

“Demand is stable to improving, which keeps giving this rally more and more life.”

“To start July out, I’m seeing a slowing of demand.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“So far this year, it’s moving faster than last year.”

“Inventory seems to be moving faster. But just from a cash conservation standpoint, we’re purposefully carrying less.”

“Inventory is moving fast this year versus the prior year because inventories are so low.”

“Faster due to tariffs and buying up front to meet supply requirements.”

“Inventory is moving about the same, and 2025 was a down year.”

“Plate inventory is moving just fine.”

Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business?

The majority of buyers responding to this question (55%) say their businesses are not benefiting from tariffs. Of the remainder, 28% believe that the tariffs are helping, and 17% are unsure how the policies will impact them. Comments included:

“No, tariffs are creating high costs and barriers. The US is now an island with the highest prices and costs in the world.”

“No, with imports down, the tight supply is causing issues keeping material flowing to our shops.”

“No, driving steel pricing up for our company.”

“No, I look forward to seeing whatever comes out from USMCA/NAFTA 3.0.”

“Yes, shortage of supply due to uncertainty and chaos. No one wants to go long.”

“Yes, these tariffs have caused prices to skyrocket and service center profits have gone along for a similar ride.”

“Yes, inventory values are stable, and imports are not disrupting the market.”

“Yes, federal M&M requirements for the DOT, Section 232 tariffs.”

Are you seeing evidence of manufacturing reshoring to the US because of Trump’s tariffs?

Almost half of respondents (46%) reported they have not seen any signs of reshoring. Nearly a third (32%) say it is too early to say, and just 22% answered they have seen some evidence. Comments included:

“No, there are some big spends out there. But it is not helping our business at all.”

“No, mostly talk. Waiting for a change in administration.”

“Too early to say. Perhaps the increased demand we’ve seen so far this year is a sign of some reshoring happening?”

“Too early to say. A lot of announcements, but no demand just yet.”

“Yes, Toyota in San Antonio.”

“Yes, the quota level is pushing up North American demand.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“They are becoming more necessary, both from a pricing standpoint and a need standpoint.”

“Imports are definitely there. Both price and lead times are looking good. Everyone I know is either talking about placing offshore tons or already has done so.”

“More attractive because domestic price is increasing almost every week.”

“Imports are very attractive.”

“Yes, but quotas are limiting the volume that can be purchased.”

“Attractive for wide flange, but our flat rolled customers require domestic material.”

“On light-gauge painted.”

“Depends on what you’re buying and what country.”

“Even though the prices of some imported steel are cheaper, they’re not clearly an attractive option due to the fact that by the time they get here, domestic prices may have fallen.”

“No, pricing is on par but there’s lots of risk with longer lead times.”

“Plate imports are just not attractive to us as our projects and account base require domestic-produced steel, among other factors.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“I think the economy is better than the media would have you think.”

“Are things/demand starting to slow down now, or is this just a summer lull?”

“Looking to the 1H of ’27, there could be a sizable reversal in pricing if demand scales back a bit, imports return in earnest, and there is more domestic capacity coming online. A very real scenario it seems like.”

“Will the USW union negotiations create any disruptions or delays in supply?”

“Additional capacity coming online over the next two years, and how the market will incorporate this volume increase.”

“AI data centers consuming an abundance of domestic steel.”

“The spread between busheling and steel prices continues to grow.”

“Falling coking coal prices. Is that showing that pricing will drop this summer also?”