The Steel Market Update Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained in positive territory for the seventh consecutive week after briefly dipping into negative territory for a single week. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]
First, a reminder that Friday is Good Friday and Sunday is Easter Sunday. Our office will be open for part of Good Friday since I have been traveling extensively and I have a need to catch up. Sunday is a holiday and we will not publish an issue on Sunday evening. The next time we […]
We had a number of companies share foreign import numbers with us as we traveled about the market reaching out to buyers regarding their domestic purchases and the offers coming out of the domestic steel mills. On cold rolled we heard Russia offers delivered to Houston at $33.25/cwt, Turkey at $35.35/cwt and Vietnam $35.15/cwt. I […]
On Friday Steel Market Update (SMU) adjusted our flat rolled steel Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral from Higher. The key reason behind our decision to move our indicator is “indecision” in the marketplace. More about that in a moment. The current market cycle began on October 21, 2016 when the domestic mills were able to […]
The Dodge Momentum Index gained 0.9 percent in March to register 144.4. The March reading is the sixth consecutive monthly increase and has been driven mostly by new projects in institutional building. The index is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential buildings in planning and leads construction spending for buildings by a […]
February data for construction put in place (CPIP) was released by the Department of Commerce on Monday March 3rd 2017. Once again this was not such a great report. Total construction is still growing though more slowly. Private construction has picked up the pace in the last three months but state and local construction is […]
For those who missed my comment earlier, Acero Junction hot strip mill is rolling at close to full right now. Our sources are advising us that the mill is running about 50,000 tons of HRC. They have prime slabs on the floor and incoming from Brazil (one of the reasons why semi-finished imports continue to […]
Steel Market Update is reporting today a new record high was achieved in our Current Steel Buyers Sentiment Index 3-month moving average (3MMA). Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel continue to be very optimistic about their company’s ability to be successful in the existing market environment. As a single data point, Sentiment was measured […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) just concluded our early April flat rolled steel market trends analysis. A portion of that study is focused on steel mill lead times as we look to see if there are any changes in the trend which could affect flat rolled steel price negotiations. Lead times remained constant compared to what […]
As with steel mill lead times discussed earlier in this newsletter, those responding to our flat rolled market trends questionnaire reported the steel mills as modestly willing to negotiate all but Galvalume flat rolled steel pricing. Thirty-eight percent of our respondents reported the domestic mills as willing to negotiate hot rolled pricing. This is 9 […]
The Steel Market Update Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained in positive territory for the sixth consecutive week after briefly dipping into negative territory for a single week. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]
I had a question from one of our readers regarding capacity utilization rates and if the Big River Steel tonnage is part of the AISI calculation. I have not spoken directly to the AISI on the subject (as of yet) but, I do know that Big River Steel is not a member of the AISI… […]
U.S. light-vehicle sales fell for the third consecutive month in March as consumers choose trucks and SUVs over cars. Sedans weren’t the only vehicles to see softening this month, however. Small pickup trucks declined for the first time since August, according to data from Wards Auto. Larger pickups and SUV sales continued to grow as […]
Congratulations to AK Steel which will cut the ribbon on their new Research and Innovation facility at the end of this week. It is truly enjoyable to see a domestic mill investing in the future of the industry. The new 135,000 square foot, $36 million dollar facility is located in the Renaissance District of Middletown, […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. This will explain the difference between our view of the present situation which is subjective and our analysis of trends which is based on the latest facts available. During March our view […]
When we began planning for our 2017 SMU Steel Summit Conference I was actually thinking that I would be able to drop the subject of trade and perhaps work on other issues of “more importance” by the time we reached the end of August 2017. Even with the CORE, hot rolled, cold rolled and cut-to-length […]
Home prices in January gained 5.9 percent annually, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index. The January data shows home prices were at a 31-month high and continuing on a positive trend despite tight inventory. On a year-over-year basis, the 20-city composite was up 5.7 percent compared to 5.5 percent in […]
The Steel Market Update Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained in positive territory for the fifth consecutive week after briefly dipping into negative territory for a single week. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]
Please excuse me as I am asking for a pass on tonight’s Final Thoughts. I left Las Vegas yesterday morning with a case of the 24-48 hour flu. I guess I could write a couple of paragraphs about our next Steel 101 workshop or about our SMU Steel Summit Conference. But, I thought my energy […]
We are getting mixed messages regarding “real” lead times coming out of the domestic steel mills. The information we are sharing below comes from actual mill lead times coming directly from the producing mills to their customers. This is different than the lead time averages collected by Steel Market Update and shared with our readers […]
I had a couple of conversations earlier today regarding the status of trade and, in particular, whether or not there could be further trade cases filed by the domestic steel mills or by the U.S. Department of Commerce. At least one mill is hearing that there could be new trade cases. This could become an […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel having been bouncing like the proverbial rubber ball over the past six weeks as they try to make sense of where steel prices are heading over the near term. Steel Market Update (SMU) asked those responding to our flat rolled steel market trends survey last week where they […]
“Fair and Free Trade” is something that those of us who have been in the steel industry since 2000 have heard over and over again from the domestic steel industry. What exactly is “fair” trade and who should decide? The steel mills have done an exceptional job of determining the talking points through lobbying efforts […]
Steel Market Update concluded our analysis of the flat rolled steel markets earlier today. One of the proprietary products produced out of our twice monthly analysis is the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index which consists of Current and Future Sentiment Indices. Our Current Sentiment Index as a single data point came in at +73. This […]
Flat rolled lead times, which had been stuck in a rut over the past couple of months, have started to move out according to those responding to our flat rolled market trends survey. We are now seeing average lead times on hot rolled close to five weeks (4.81 weeks). We also saw movement in cold […]
The aggressiveness of the flat rolled steel mills was minimal on Galvalume steels this week but other products appear to be open for discussion, according to those taking the SMU flat rolled market trends analysis survey just completed earlier today (Thursday, March 23, 2017). We found 47 percent of our respondents reporting the domestic mills […]
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development reports sale of new single-family homes jumped in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 592,000, a 6.1 percent increase from January and 12.8 percent year-over-year. The median sales price of new houses sold in February 2017 was $296,200 and the […]
Existing home sales slowed in February, declining by 3.7 percent from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.84 million. According to the National Association of Realtors, the rate continues to exceed year ago levels and was 5.4 percent above the sales pace reported in February 2016. The median sale price for […]
Based on the most recent MSCI data, carbon flat rolled service centers in the United States shipped 2,103,000 tons of sheet products. Our SMU Service Center Apparent Excess/Deficit forecast had called for shipments to be 2,191,000 tons. So, we missed our forecast by 88,000 tons. Our original forecast called for 4,551,000 tons of flat rolled […]
The Steel Market Update Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained in positive territory for the fourth consecutive week after briefly dipping into negative territory last month. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week […]